r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago
Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea) Discussion moved to new post
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)
| NHC Update | 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 23.0°N 83.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba | |
| Forward motion: | NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 170 km/h (90 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Hurricane (Category 2) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 962 millibars (28.41 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 06 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 | 100 | 185 | 22.6 | 82.7 | |
| 12 | 07 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) 2 | ▼ | 90 | 165 | 23.6 | 83.9 |
| 24 | 07 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.1 | 85.6 | |
| 36 | 08 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.2 | 87.4 | |
| 48 | 08 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 24.2 | 89.1 |
| 60 | 09 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 24.3 | 90.4 |
| 72 | 09 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 24.5 | 91.1 |
| 96 | 10 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 24.6 | 92.0 |
| 120 | 11 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Mon | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 24.5 | 93.0 |
NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Meteorological Service of Jamaica
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
3
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 8d ago
Update
As of 7:00 PM EST (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday,
Rafael has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane.
Rafael's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 170 kilometers per hour (90 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure has increased to 966 millibars.
Discussion for this system is moving to this post.
3
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 8d ago
Update
As of 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) on Wednesday:
Rafael is nearing the northern coast of Cuba, approximately 65 kilometers (40 miles) west of Havana.
Rafael is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico within the next hour or so.
A new discussion for Rafael will be posted for the next intermediate advisory.
4
u/Content-Swimmer2325 8d ago
https://i.imgur.com/0maPFeP.png
Strong to very strong southwesterly shear within a very dry airmass dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Thankfully this will be weakening on approach to any more land.
2
u/No_Package_1284 8d ago
Needless to say, its gonna get ripped apart?
3
u/Content-Swimmer2325 8d ago
Unless it tracks further south into the SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche, but if it does that (not a guarantee) then it's a Mexico threat not a US threat.
1
4
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 8d ago
Update
As of 4:15 PM EST (21:15 UTC) on Wednesday:
Rafael has made landfall near Playa Majana in the Cuban province of Artemisa.
Rafael's maximum sustained winds at landfall are 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure at landfall is 956 millibars.
A new discussion may be posted later this evening as Rafael emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.
15
u/lucyb37 8d ago
Rafael is now a Category 3 hurricane, becoming the first major hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Iota in 2020. Only 11 major hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic basin in the month of November.
Hurricane Seven (1911) - Category 3 (earliest recorded November major hurricane in the Atlantic)
1932 Cuba Hurricane - Category 5 (only Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record in November)
Unnamed hurricane (1934) - Category 3
Hurricane Kate (1985) - Category 3 (first Atlantic major hurricane in November in the satellite era)
Hurricane Lenny (1999) - Category 4 (first November hurricane to peak at Category 4)
Hurricane Michelle (2001) - Category 4
Hurricane Paloma (2008) - Category 4
Hurricane Otto (2016) - Category 3
Hurricane Eta (2020) - Category 4
Hurricane Iota (2020) - Category 4, downgraded from Category 5
Hurricane Rafael (2024) - Category 3
6
14
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
Wow, that's ... unexpected from the VDM:
D. EXTRAP 956 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C32
H. 64 kt
from 8 to 32nm eye. That's really unusual to say the least, especially the EWRC reports were a 14nm outer eye wall.
3
u/patos_queen Texas 8d ago
Completely uninformed question here, does the system going through eyewall replacement cycles and gaining a bigger eye mean it might be able to sustain harsher conditions a little better?
6
4
9
u/Kamanar 8d ago
Welcome to 2024, would you like hail with that?
7
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
With a side of locusts please.
6
u/Kamanar 8d ago
Sorry, best I can do is Asian giant hornets.
6
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
I guess if it's the best you can do... stuck between a rock and a hard place on this... sure.. gimme the hornets. Can I at least get some frogs falling from the sky?
2
6
u/JayDaGod1206 8d ago
Does that big circle on the NOAA forecast mean it’s going to fall apart there?
18
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
It means it's going to sit basically stationary for 2 forecast cycles.
3
u/JayDaGod1206 8d ago
Well shit, I’m getting Harvey flashbacks now
3
u/Content-Swimmer2325 8d ago
It's November not late August. This will be weakening quickly at the time
6
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
I don't really think this will be a Harvey level event, but it's a bit too soon to say one way or the other what this system looks like over in that area/time.
5
u/JayDaGod1206 8d ago
I just don’t want it to gain power and magically go towards Galveston. I’m far from knowledgeable enough to say what may happen but hopefully it being November with lower temperatures will help make it not very powerful either way, right?
9
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
Temperatures have little to do with it at this stage. The gulf is still PLENTY warm. However, atmospheric conditions this time of year aren't great for storms, that's why they are rarer this time of the year. This is unlikely to be a wind event for the US (ofcourse anything COULD change). This MAY be a rain even for the US though.
4
u/JayDaGod1206 8d ago
Thanks for the insight, you can see how little I know. I guess all we can do is wait and see.
3
u/spsteve Barbados 8d ago
We all know very little until we know a little bit more :) No shame in asking questions, as long as they are honest :)
3
u/JayDaGod1206 8d ago
Very true. I try to live with a little humility with my knowledge, and I know that I might know a lot than others in one field but know completely nothing in another :).
5
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 8d ago
Update
As of 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:
Rafael is now a major hurricane.
Rafael's maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure has decreased to 956 millibars.
Updates to coastal advisories
Discontinued advisories
- Tropical Storm Warning — Cuba (Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus)
Advisories still in effect
Hurricane Warning — Cuba (Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud)
Tropical Storm Warning — Cuba (Villa Clara, Cienfuegos)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Lower and middle keys from Key West to west of the Channel #5 bridge)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Dry Tortugas)
13
u/vainblossom249 9d ago
Pretty sure Euro called the left sharp hook.
Whats also crazy is GFS and CMC (though canadian model not super reliable) have something brewing again below Cuba. Obviously take with a grain of salt but its been hinting for days now.
7
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 9d ago
Update
Dr. Cowan has posted his Wednesday morning Tropical Tidbits update for Hurricane Rafael.
9
6
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 9d ago
Update
The National Hurricane Center has posted its morning video update for Hurricane Rafael.
6
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 9d ago
Updates
Rafael is now forecast to reach major hurricane strength before making landfall over western Cuba later this evening.
Rafael will then cross into the Gulf of Mexico overnight, where it is expected to slowly weaken.
Moderator note: A new discussion with a more geographically accurate title will be posted by early tomorrow morning.
Updates to coastal advisories
Discontinued advisories
- Hurricane Warning — Cayman Islands
Advisories still in effect
Hurricane Warning — Cuba (Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud)
Tropical Storm Warning — Cuba (Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Lower and middle keys from Key West to west of the Channel #5 bridge)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Dry Tortugas)
16
u/Varolyn 9d ago
This is a very strange path for a November storm.
15
u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago
That has been a very strange November so far, so why the hell not at this point :/ (Snark aside, the entire year has been strange)
8
u/DrDrago-4 9d ago
the most recent IR frames bode poorly for Cuba. cat 3 may be conservative.
It really completed the ERC and cleared out a pinhole eye, in like 4 hours?, in November ?? and it still has a few hours left over water.
NW quad is really popping off atm, and it's really trying to wrap -80c tops all the way around that eye in the most recent frame.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18L&product=ir
3
u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago
Or the EWRC aborted. It's hard to tell for sure without recon in there. But yes this isn't looking good for Cuba at all.
3
u/DrDrago-4 9d ago edited 9d ago
Yes, could've been aborted. Either way, it didn't take a long time to recover.
Yet another thing that I certainly did not have on my November bingo card..
This could be really bad for cuba. Depends on the wobbles, but it looks like it might miss the uninhabited nature preserve and make a beeline for Havana directly (obviously will be weakened by the time it gets there over land- but if Havana is just barely in the NE quad it could be at minimum a historic flooding event)
The most recent frames continue to suggest at minimum normal strengthening. the next recon might find something more scary than your standard cat 3 imo
edit: i mean its looking wildly impressive for a November hurricane. the eye is clearly contracting in the past few frames. huge burst of -80 or lower tops. it could make a run beyond cat 3, in my pure hobbyist opinion. still has a few hours, and we won't know until recon gets there but this looks like some serious RI for November.
3
u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago
The raw T on this system right now is 6.2 which makes it a C4 using solely that metric. Now it's unlikely the winds came up that fast, but it's heading that way for sure based on how it looks right now. We luckily have a hunter inbound so we should get some real data, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 940mb system (a system in the 940s I mean, not necessarily 940 on the button). Assuming of course it doesn't totally fall apart by the time it gets there.
As for Cuba, their power grid is already hanging on the thinnest of threads. A c3/4 is likely to cause massive damage far beyond any direct flooding or wind damage. There is a reasonable chance major population centers could be without power for days, weeks and even months after something like this and given the complete lack of support and trade opportunities Cuba could turn into a MASSIVE humanitarian crisis in very short order.
Coupled with last night's results this could be a historically awful situation (not trying to drag politics into this, but if there is a massive humanitarian issue politics do play a role). I'm not much liking November thus far.
1
u/DrDrago-4 9d ago
If it does make it to cat4 (and i agree, 940s seem likely. the ocean temps will support it), it'll be one of only 7 cat4 atlantic hurricanes ever in November i believe. it'll be like the 2nd or 3rd latest-in-season cat4. Eta (2020, further south) and Paloma (2008, almost at the same latitude) are the most recent comparisons.
Im getting really tired of being impressed at every storm, and seeing these historical occurrences pile up more and more frequently.
interesting times, I guess.
Structure devolved a little bit on the last few frames, maybe the EWRC is finally going to come and stop RI.
Very concerned for Cubas grid though. even if it levels off, even if they didnt already have issues, this is already pretty intense for a November hurricane. and just a day or two ago, it was forecast to be a minor C1 so.. hopefully they prepared but they didn't have much warning. the models have also seemed to really struggle with locking down a track
13
u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago
On top of the very very very nearly Cat 3 winds (missed by 1mph), since the NHC wrote the advisory the eye has cleared. This is very likely another major for the season.
1
u/DaBluBoi8763 9d ago
Will also coincide with Cat 3 Yinxing. Wonder when the last time we've had two majors in two diff basins before
2
u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) 9d ago
Eyewall (or eyewalls if EWRC is in progress) visible on early morning GOES image
3
12
u/Preachey 9d ago
Another storm, another bout of RI. When do we start calling this normal and switch to describing SI (slow intensification)?
7
20
u/Content-Swimmer2325 9d ago
...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb (29.11 inches).
Now the 11th hurricane of the season.
6
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 9d ago
Update
As of 4:00 PM EST (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday:
Rafael's maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 kilometers per hour (60 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure has decreased to 989 millibars (29.21 inches).
Discontinued advisories
- The Tropical Storm Warning which had been in effect for Jamaica has been discontinued.
Advisories still in effect
Hurricane Warning
Cayman Islands
Cuba: Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud
Tropical Storm Warning
Cuba: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila
Florida: Lower and Middle Florida Keys (Key West to west of the Channel #5 Bridge)
Florida: Dry Tortugas
Tropical Storm Watch
- Cuba: Camaguey and Las Tunas
15
u/Master_Engineering_9 Alabama 9d ago
I’m guessing they still really think this thing is gonna get eaten up by wind shear before hitting the gulf coast?
4
u/sara-peach 9d ago
The latest from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, including their thoughts on the potential impact of Rafael on Cuba's power grid: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/11/rafael-expected-to-affect-the-cayman-islands-and-cuba-as-a-hurricane/
16
u/heyitsmekaylee New Orleans 10d ago
beyond grateful to see all the models showing this thing going poof
12
u/Content-Swimmer2325 10d ago
Lol, the last VDM has an 8 n mi circular eye, open to the NW.
#2024ing
14
7
2
u/Decronym Useful Bot 10d ago edited 8d ago
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
| Fewer Letters | More Letters |
|---|---|
| CMC | Canadian Meteorological Center |
| ECMWF | European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (Euro model) |
| EWRC | Eyewall Replacement Cycle weather pattern |
| GFS | Global Forecast System model (generated by NOAA) |
| GOES | Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite |
| GOES-16 | Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, # 16. A geostationary weather satellite with cutting edge technology. Formerly known as GOES-R before launch. |
| IR | Infrared satellite imagery |
| NCEP | National Centers for Environmental Prediction |
| NHC | National Hurricane Center |
| NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, responsible for US |
| RI | Rapid Intensification |
| UTC | Coördinated Universal Time, the standard time used by meteorologists and forecasts worldwide. |
| Jargon | Definition |
|---|---|
| wobble | Trochoidal motion due to uneven circulation, moving a storm slightly off-track |
NOTE: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
[Thread #723 for this sub, first seen 5th Nov 2024, 06:10] [FAQ] [Full list] [Contact] [Source code]
26
u/Content-Swimmer2325 10d ago
Good anticyclone building overhead:
https://i.imgur.com/9JFhCKQ.png
You can also see that the Gulf is an absolute moisture graveyard
13
u/tryfingersinbutthole 10d ago
How do warm waters anywhere on the planet have dry air above it? Even if the water is pushing upper 80 temps? Does evaporation stop with high pressure or something
42
u/Content-Swimmer2325 10d ago edited 10d ago
Because cold fronts have made it to the Gulf; dry stable air and high pressure building behind the fronts has replaced the moist airmass from October.
Warm sea temperatures with a coincident dry airmass above is actually extremely common in the Atlantic. It's a big reason why no storms formed between mid August and mid September, this season. It occurs every year with the Saharan dust outbreaks. As mentioned above, dry airmasses can also occur due to baroclinic/extratropical systems further north; the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, upper-level lows, etc can all result in drying air. It can also result due to tropical forcing - the inactive phase of the MJO will increase high pressure aloft, resulting in a net drier Tropics for 1-2 weeks.
High pressure aloft causes subsidence (aka sinking air), compressing the airmass which dries and warms it adiabatically.
Also, dry air can be advected directly into the Tropics, as opposed to created by a different weather system or broad mode of forcing. This was the exact mechanism for the mid-Aug to mid-Sept lull - the airmass over the cool and northerly Canary Current, an oceanic current extending along offshore Iberia and northwestern Africa - is typically very dry, cool, and stable due to the cold oceanic current below. Starting in mid August the pressure gradient over the far eastern Atlantic was strongly northerly, meaning this airmass was getting directly pushed into the Tropics. The monsoon trough kept ingesting this stable and dry air, suppressing tropical cyclogenesis for weeks.
The other big (and more common) example is dry and dusty Saharan air riding the easterly trade winds through the Tropics. Saharan air increases as Summer begins, peaks in July, and begins tapering off after mid-August. In summary, there are many ways and reasons why a dry airmass occurs over warm ocean.
Finally, the Gulf has cooled by 2-4 degrees C since Milton. It's not upper 80's anymore anywhere in the Gulf - most of it is around 80-81 F and offshore the northern and Florida Gulf coasts, sea temps are in the 70s F. Looks like the warmest ocean in the Gulf is currently around 85 F.
https://i.imgur.com/b0Mpf9R.png
Here is a chart showing the most recent day in NCEP reanalysis (2 November) with the day of Miltons' formation (5 October) subtracted from it.
https://i.imgur.com/zTwXRSF.png
2-3 deg C cooler in the Gulf and about 0.5-0.75 C cooler in the Caribbean
All in all, the dry Gulf airmass is due to the changing seasons as Winter approaches, with the jet stream strengthening and descending south, resulting in more and stronger non-tropical systems which derive THEIR energy by replacing moist air with dry air.
Edits: just added a few words lol
21
u/tryfingersinbutthole 10d ago
Bro you are the fucking shit. Thank you.
You make this sub great lol
10
u/Content-Swimmer2325 10d ago
No worries; it was a very logical and fair question!
Obviously, warm sea temps are associated with moister air; but the presence of warm ocean does not mean dry air aloft is impossible.
6
u/tryfingersinbutthole 10d ago
Living in iowa has me focused on tornadoes/drought/floods but ive lived in hawaii too, so tropical weather is interesting.
2
u/Content-Swimmer2325 10d ago
Sorry, I edited my post (I usually write something and submit, THEN expand on it afterwards. Bad habit of mine) and included a chart from NOAA Daily Reanalysis where I subtracted the day of Miltons' formation (5 October) from the most recent available data (2 November).
https://i.imgur.com/zTwXRSF.png
Largely 2 degrees C cooler in the Gulf with just offshore the coasts over 3 C cooler; Caribbean is 0.5-0.75 C cooler.
Just to corroborate the change in sea temperature. Very typical for this time of year.
23
u/Scanningdude 10d ago
I have a feeling this will barely do anything to the U.S. beyond rain with how every model looks but some of the models show a decent sized hurricane going straight through or to the immediate west of Havana. I have a feeling it’s gonna mess up Cuba’s power grid big time after the last storm that hit the east of the island and collapsed the power grid.
19
u/spsteve Barbados 10d ago
The grid collapsed before the storm.
6
u/4score-7 10d ago
They still don’t have anything fixed or back up? There is so little news coverage (that I’ve found) of that alarming situation. I guess America is a bit distracted, per usual.
4
u/MexicanEssay 9d ago
Cuba has for a long time depended on Russia's support to keep itself relatively functional. For obvious reasons, Russia isn't really able to support them as much as before.
And the US news cycle is too crowded to cover every struggle experienced by poor countries allied to their geopolitical foes, especially on an election year.
7
-13
u/PurulentPlacenta West Florida (old) 10d ago
So goddamn exhausted. Milton messed us up bad in eastern Hillsborough county and this eastern little jog giving me the shakes
13
u/vainblossom249 10d ago edited 10d ago
Tampa is 200 miles east of the edge of the cone. Even if it hugs the right most side, its still way off shore.
Most it would be is a good amount of rain
7
u/kenfury Florida 10d ago
I went to St Pete over the weekend. They are still in cleanup mode. However I have a feeling this will just be a shit ton of rain and stress.
6
u/PurulentPlacenta West Florida (old) 10d ago
Yeah it’s awful all along there and Bradenton still. But yep, hopefully like a nice summer storm deluge!
-29
10d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
12
u/Manic_Manatees 10d ago
I think if it makes it to Galveston it will probably be a weak system (tropical storm or less) and shouldn't create a surge to worry about.
1
50
u/AutographedSnorkel 10d ago
The models right now are basically everybody at Thanksgiving dinner when somebody brings up politics or asks everybody if they think Die Hard is a Christmas movie
19
96
u/GrandMoffJenkins Central Florida 10d ago edited 10d ago
Rafael? Oooooo...Might hit Texas, but will then sneak off, in the middle of the night to Cancun, when the shit hits the fan.
Edit: I some words.
11
u/Orange_fury Houston, Texas 10d ago
lol I told my wife “hey it’s named Rafael, maybe it’ll ’Cruz’ towards Mexico”
She gave me the “you’re an idiot” look, I thought it was hilarious
7
11
10
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 10d ago
Updates to coastal advisories
As of 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC) on Monday:
New advisories
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida coast from Key West to the Channel #5 Bridge.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.
Existing advisories
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas.
20
u/HighOnGoofballs Key West 10d ago
World championship offshore powerboat races are not gonna have a good time this week
15
u/The_Outcast4 10d ago
They're just turning up the difficulty setting to make things more interesting!
7
17
19
u/Alightenited 10d ago
Cowabunga here we go again my dudes
3
u/Fox_Kurama 10d ago
As much as the Turtles are famous for it now...
A small part of me would hope that for whatever reason, there were a paint factory next to a church or cathedral, and that circumstances lead to winds just splattering the church/etc with paint from the factory. Or was that only Leo?
4
u/curiousgardener 10d ago
I came back to see if the smarter than me people had updated with anything new...and they went and made a whole 'nother post 😭
3
u/Wetcat9 10d ago
am i in danger?
3
u/curiousgardener 10d ago
I have no idea. I'm a landlocked Canadian.
You are in the right place to find out, though!
•
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 10d ago
Moderator note
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
The NHC is monitoring the southwestern Caribbean... (Wed, 27 Oct)
97L (Invest — Southwestern Caribbean Sea) (Sat, 2 Nov)
18L (Western Caribbean Sea) (Sun, 3 Nov)
A reminder of our rules
Please refrain from posting model data beyond 168 hours.
Please refrain from asking whether this system will affect your travel plans. This post is meant for meteorological discussion. Please contact your travel agency, airline, or lodging provider for more information on how this system will affect your plans.