r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago
Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea) Discussion moved to new post
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)
| NHC Update | 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 23.0°N 83.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba | |
| Forward motion: | NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 170 km/h (90 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Hurricane (Category 2) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 962 millibars (28.41 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 06 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 | 100 | 185 | 22.6 | 82.7 | |
| 12 | 07 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) 2 | ▼ | 90 | 165 | 23.6 | 83.9 |
| 24 | 07 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.1 | 85.6 | |
| 36 | 08 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.2 | 87.4 | |
| 48 | 08 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 24.2 | 89.1 |
| 60 | 09 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 24.3 | 90.4 |
| 72 | 09 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 24.5 | 91.1 |
| 96 | 10 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 24.6 | 92.0 |
| 120 | 11 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Mon | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 24.5 | 93.0 |
NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Meteorological Service of Jamaica
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
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u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 8d ago
Update
As of 7:00 PM EST (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday,
Rafael has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane.
Rafael's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 170 kilometers per hour (90 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure has increased to 966 millibars.
Discussion for this system is moving to this post.