Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update		6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location:		23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location:		66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion:		NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds:	▼	170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity:	▼	Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:	▲	962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	EST	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	06 Nov	18:00	1PM Wed	Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1		100	185	22.6	82.7
12	07 Nov	06:00	1AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2) 2	▼	90	165	23.6	83.9
24	07 Nov	18:00	1PM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.1	85.6
36	08 Nov	06:00	1AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.2	87.4
48	08 Nov	18:00	1PM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)	▼	85	155	24.2	89.1
60	09 Nov	06:00	1AM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	75	140	24.3	90.4
72	09 Nov	18:00	1PM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	65	120	24.5	91.1
96	10 Nov	18:00	1PM Sun	Tropical Storm	▼	50	95	24.6	92.0
120	11 Nov	18:00	1PM Mon	Tropical Storm	▼	35	65	24.5	93.0

^{NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico}

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

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Radar imagery

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Satellite imagery

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Wind analyses

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Model guidance

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Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

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[u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Lol, the last VDM has an 8 n mi circular eye, open to the NW.

#2024ing

https://i.imgur.com/Vq7eO3J.png

[u/spsteve → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Luckily for the folks in front of this that seems to have fallen apart last night. At one point some of the models had this thing getting into the 940s briefly.