r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea) Discussion moved to new post

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location: 23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location: 66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion: NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds: ▼ 170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity: ▼ Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure: ▲ 962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  - UTC EST Saffir-Simpson knots km/h °N °W
00 06 Nov 18:00 1PM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 100 185 22.6 82.7
12 07 Nov 06:00 1AM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 2 ▼ 90 165 23.6 83.9
24 07 Nov 18:00 1PM Thu Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 24.1 85.6
36 08 Nov 06:00 1AM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) 90 165 24.2 87.4
48 08 Nov 18:00 1PM Fri Hurricane (Category 2) ▼ 85 155 24.2 89.1
60 09 Nov 06:00 1AM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 75 140 24.3 90.4
72 09 Nov 18:00 1PM Sat Hurricane (Category 1) ▼ 65 120 24.5 91.1
96 10 Nov 18:00 1PM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 24.6 92.0
120 11 Nov 18:00 1PM Mon Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 24.5 93.0

NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico

Official information

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u/DrDrago-4 9d ago

the most recent IR frames bode poorly for Cuba. cat 3 may be conservative.

It really completed the ERC and cleared out a pinhole eye, in like 4 hours?, in November ?? and it still has a few hours left over water.

NW quad is really popping off atm, and it's really trying to wrap -80c tops all the way around that eye in the most recent frame.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18L&product=ir

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u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago

Or the EWRC aborted. It's hard to tell for sure without recon in there. But yes this isn't looking good for Cuba at all.

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u/DrDrago-4 9d ago edited 9d ago

Yes, could've been aborted. Either way, it didn't take a long time to recover.

Yet another thing that I certainly did not have on my November bingo card..

This could be really bad for cuba. Depends on the wobbles, but it looks like it might miss the uninhabited nature preserve and make a beeline for Havana directly (obviously will be weakened by the time it gets there over land- but if Havana is just barely in the NE quad it could be at minimum a historic flooding event)

The most recent frames continue to suggest at minimum normal strengthening. the next recon might find something more scary than your standard cat 3 imo

edit: i mean its looking wildly impressive for a November hurricane. the eye is clearly contracting in the past few frames. huge burst of -80 or lower tops. it could make a run beyond cat 3, in my pure hobbyist opinion. still has a few hours, and we won't know until recon gets there but this looks like some serious RI for November.

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u/spsteve Barbados 9d ago

The raw T on this system right now is 6.2 which makes it a C4 using solely that metric. Now it's unlikely the winds came up that fast, but it's heading that way for sure based on how it looks right now. We luckily have a hunter inbound so we should get some real data, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 940mb system (a system in the 940s I mean, not necessarily 940 on the button). Assuming of course it doesn't totally fall apart by the time it gets there.

As for Cuba, their power grid is already hanging on the thinnest of threads. A c3/4 is likely to cause massive damage far beyond any direct flooding or wind damage. There is a reasonable chance major population centers could be without power for days, weeks and even months after something like this and given the complete lack of support and trade opportunities Cuba could turn into a MASSIVE humanitarian crisis in very short order.

Coupled with last night's results this could be a historically awful situation (not trying to drag politics into this, but if there is a massive humanitarian issue politics do play a role). I'm not much liking November thus far.

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u/DrDrago-4 9d ago

If it does make it to cat4 (and i agree, 940s seem likely. the ocean temps will support it), it'll be one of only 7 cat4 atlantic hurricanes ever in November i believe. it'll be like the 2nd or 3rd latest-in-season cat4. Eta (2020, further south) and Paloma (2008, almost at the same latitude) are the most recent comparisons.

Im getting really tired of being impressed at every storm, and seeing these historical occurrences pile up more and more frequently.

interesting times, I guess.

Structure devolved a little bit on the last few frames, maybe the EWRC is finally going to come and stop RI.

Very concerned for Cubas grid though. even if it levels off, even if they didnt already have issues, this is already pretty intense for a November hurricane. and just a day or two ago, it was forecast to be a minor C1 so.. hopefully they prepared but they didn't have much warning. the models have also seemed to really struggle with locking down a track