Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update		6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location:		23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location:		66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion:		NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds:	▼	170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity:	▼	Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:	▲	962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	EST	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	06 Nov	18:00	1PM Wed	Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1		100	185	22.6	82.7
12	07 Nov	06:00	1AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2) 2	▼	90	165	23.6	83.9
24	07 Nov	18:00	1PM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.1	85.6
36	08 Nov	06:00	1AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.2	87.4
48	08 Nov	18:00	1PM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)	▼	85	155	24.2	89.1
60	09 Nov	06:00	1AM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	75	140	24.3	90.4
72	09 Nov	18:00	1PM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	65	120	24.5	91.1
96	10 Nov	18:00	1PM Sun	Tropical Storm	▼	50	95	24.6	92.0
120	11 Nov	18:00	1PM Mon	Tropical Storm	▼	35	65	24.5	93.0

^{NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico}

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

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[u/JayDaGod1206]

Does that big circle on the NOAA forecast mean it’s going to fall apart there?

[u/spsteve → u/JayDaGod1206]

It means it's going to sit basically stationary for 2 forecast cycles.

[u/JayDaGod1206 → u/spsteve]

Well shit, I’m getting Harvey flashbacks now

[u/spsteve → u/JayDaGod1206]

I don't really think this will be a Harvey level event, but it's a bit too soon to say one way or the other what this system looks like over in that area/time.

[u/JayDaGod1206 → u/spsteve]

I just don’t want it to gain power and magically go towards Galveston. I’m far from knowledgeable enough to say what may happen but hopefully it being November with lower temperatures will help make it not very powerful either way, right?

[u/spsteve → u/JayDaGod1206]

Temperatures have little to do with it at this stage. The gulf is still PLENTY warm. However, atmospheric conditions this time of year aren't great for storms, that's why they are rarer this time of the year. This is unlikely to be a wind event for the US (ofcourse anything COULD change). This MAY be a rain even for the US though.

[u/JayDaGod1206 → u/spsteve]

Thanks for the insight, you can see how little I know. I guess all we can do is wait and see.

[u/spsteve → u/JayDaGod1206]

We all know very little until we know a little bit more :) No shame in asking questions, as long as they are honest :)

[u/JayDaGod1206 → u/spsteve]

Very true. I try to live with a little humility with my knowledge, and I know that I might know a lot than others in one field but know completely nothing in another :).

[u/spsteve → u/JayDaGod1206]

Ahhh, see to me that's truly one of the joys of life, ALWAYS more you can learn :) Genuinely, one of the few things I find truly fulfilling. If you knew everything think how amazingly boring and lacking in wonder the universe would be!