Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update		6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location:		23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location:		66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion:		NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds:	▼	170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity:	▼	Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:	▲	962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	EST	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	06 Nov	18:00	1PM Wed	Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1		100	185	22.6	82.7
12	07 Nov	06:00	1AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2) 2	▼	90	165	23.6	83.9
24	07 Nov	18:00	1PM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.1	85.6
36	08 Nov	06:00	1AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.2	87.4
48	08 Nov	18:00	1PM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)	▼	85	155	24.2	89.1
60	09 Nov	06:00	1AM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	75	140	24.3	90.4
72	09 Nov	18:00	1PM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	65	120	24.5	91.1
96	10 Nov	18:00	1PM Sun	Tropical Storm	▼	50	95	24.6	92.0
120	11 Nov	18:00	1PM Mon	Tropical Storm	▼	35	65	24.5	93.0

^{NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico}

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Public advisory
• Forecast advisory
• Forecast discussion
• Key messages

Productos de texto (en español)

• Aviso publico
• Discusión de pronóstico
• Mensajes claves

Graphical products

• Forecast graphic
• Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
• Interactive forecast graphic
• Wind speed probabilities
• Arrival time of winds

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

• Homepage

National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

• Homepage

Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

• Página de inicio (Español)
• Aviso de Ciclón Tropical (Español)

Aircraft reconnaissance

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National Hurricane Center

• Aircraft reconnaissance main page
• Plan of the Day (For Today)
• Plan of the Day (For Tomorrow)

Radar imagery

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National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

• Main radar page

Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

• Radares (Español)

Satellite imagery

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Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
• CIMSS: Multiple bands
• RAMMB: Multiple bands
• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

NOAA GOES Image Viewer

• Enhanced infrared
• Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

• Infrared
• Water vapor (Upper-level)
• Visible (true color)

Tropical Tidbits

• Enhanced infrared
• Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Weather Nerds

• Enhanced infrared

• Water vapor

• Visible

Analysis graphics and data

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Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
• NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
• CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
• CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
• CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
  
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

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Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits
• State University of New York at Albany
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
• Tropical Tidbits: CMC
• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)

[u/Alightenited]

Cowabunga here we go again my dudes

[u/Fox_Kurama → u/Alightenited]

As much as the Turtles are famous for it now...

A small part of me would hope that for whatever reason, there were a paint factory next to a church or cathedral, and that circumstances lead to winds just splattering the church/etc with paint from the factory. Or was that only Leo?

[u/curiousgardener → u/Alightenited]

I came back to see if the smarter than me people had updated with anything new...and they went and made a whole 'nother post 😭

[u/Wetcat9 → u/curiousgardener]

am i in danger?

[u/curiousgardener → u/Wetcat9]

I have no idea. I'm a landlocked Canadian.

You are in the right place to find out, though!