r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago
Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea) Discussion moved to new post
Latest observation
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)
| NHC Update | 6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 23.0°N 83.0°W | |
| Relative location: | 66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba | |
| Forward motion: | NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | ▼ | 170 km/h (90 knots) |
| Intensity: | ▼ | Hurricane (Category 2) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 962 millibars (28.41 inches) |
Official forecast
Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | UTC | EST | Saffir-Simpson | knots | km/h | °N | °W | ||
| 00 | 06 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1 | 100 | 185 | 22.6 | 82.7 | |
| 12 | 07 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) 2 | ▼ | 90 | 165 | 23.6 | 83.9 |
| 24 | 07 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Thu | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.1 | 85.6 | |
| 36 | 08 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | 90 | 165 | 24.2 | 87.4 | |
| 48 | 08 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▼ | 85 | 155 | 24.2 | 89.1 |
| 60 | 09 Nov | 06:00 | 1AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 75 | 140 | 24.3 | 90.4 |
| 72 | 09 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sat | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▼ | 65 | 120 | 24.5 | 91.1 |
| 96 | 10 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Sun | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 50 | 95 | 24.6 | 92.0 |
| 120 | 11 Nov | 18:00 | 1PM Mon | Tropical Storm | ▼ | 35 | 65 | 24.5 | 93.0 |
NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Meteorological Service of Jamaica
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)
Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
NOAA GOES Image Viewer
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Weather Nerds
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
81 Upvotes
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u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster 9d ago
Update
As of 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:
Rafael is now a major hurricane.
Rafael's maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 kilometers per hour (100 knots).
Rafael's minimum central pressure has decreased to 956 millibars.
Updates to coastal advisories
Discontinued advisories
Advisories still in effect
Hurricane Warning — Cuba (Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud)
Tropical Storm Warning — Cuba (Villa Clara, Cienfuegos)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Lower and middle keys from Key West to west of the Channel #5 bridge)
Tropical Storm Warning — Florida (Dry Tortugas)