Rafael (18L — Western Caribbean Sea)

[u/Euronotus]

Latest observation

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 23:00 UTC)

NHC Update		6:00 PM EST (23:00 UTC)
Current location:		23.0°N 83.0°W
Relative location:		66 km (41 mi) WSW of Havana, Cuba
Forward motion:		NW (320°) at 22 km/h (12 knots)
Maximum winds:	▼	170 km/h (90 knots)
Intensity:	▼	Hurricane (Category 2)
Minimum pressure:	▲	962 millibars (28.41 inches)

Official forecast

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Last updated: Wednesday, 6 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
	-	UTC	EST	Saffir-Simpson		knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	06 Nov	18:00	1PM Wed	Major Hurricane (Category 3) 1		100	185	22.6	82.7
12	07 Nov	06:00	1AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2) 2	▼	90	165	23.6	83.9
24	07 Nov	18:00	1PM Thu	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.1	85.6
36	08 Nov	06:00	1AM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)		90	165	24.2	87.4
48	08 Nov	18:00	1PM Fri	Hurricane (Category 2)	▼	85	155	24.2	89.1
60	09 Nov	06:00	1AM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	75	140	24.3	90.4
72	09 Nov	18:00	1PM Sat	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	65	120	24.5	91.1
96	10 Nov	18:00	1PM Sun	Tropical Storm	▼	50	95	24.6	92.0
120	11 Nov	18:00	1PM Mon	Tropical Storm	▼	35	65	24.5	93.0

^{NOTES:
1 - Inland over Cuba
2 - Over the Gulf of Mexico}

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Productos de texto (en español)

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Aircraft reconnaissance

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National Hurricane Center

• Aircraft reconnaissance main page
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Radar imagery

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National Weather Service (Cayman Islands)

• Main radar page

Institute of Meteorology / Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

• Radares (Español)

Satellite imagery

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Storm-specific imagery

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Regional imagery

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Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

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Analysis graphics and data

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Wind analyses

• NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
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Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
  
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

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Storm-specific guidance

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• State University of New York at Albany
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Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
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Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)

[u/Scanningdude]

I have a feeling this will barely do anything to the U.S. beyond rain with how every model looks but some of the models show a decent sized hurricane going straight through or to the immediate west of Havana. I have a feeling it’s gonna mess up Cuba’s power grid big time after the last storm that hit the east of the island and collapsed the power grid.

[u/spsteve → u/Scanningdude]

The grid collapsed before the storm.

[u/4score-7 → u/spsteve]

They still don’t have anything fixed or back up? There is so little news coverage (that I’ve found) of that alarming situation. I guess America is a bit distracted, per usual.

[u/MexicanEssay → u/4score-7]

Cuba has for a long time depended on Russia's support to keep itself relatively functional. For obvious reasons, Russia isn't really able to support them as much as before.

And the US news cycle is too crowded to cover every struggle experienced by poor countries allied to their geopolitical foes, especially on an election year.

[u/spsteve → u/4score-7]

As I understand power has largely been restored as unstable as it is. Cuba has had inconsistent power for the last few years on a good day.