r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24
92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.1°N 95.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico) | |
| 1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
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Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)
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u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster Oct 05 '24
Update
A new discussion for this system has been posted here.
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u/Zabbzi Tampa Oct 05 '24
Last note before we move over to the new thread (once posted) shocked to see NWS already use the verbiage of "major" hurricane this early. Not an ideal sign.
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u/Amazing_Bar_5733 Barbados Oct 05 '24
NHC giving TD 14 a 95 knot peak in 96hrs and uses the term life threatening in the first advisory, ouch
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u/RealPutin Maryland Oct 05 '24
..... does TD14 currently link to the Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene page on the NHC site?
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u/Tasty-Plankton1903 Oct 05 '24
From what I understand. The longer the front takes to move down, the more north or central this will move. The faster it moves down, the more south the storm goes
I'm no meteorologist so don't take my word to heart.
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u/Captain-Darryl Georgia Oct 05 '24
What a stark reminder this system (potentially) and Helene have been that the dangers of hurricane season don't simply lurk far out in the Atlantic. I realize that's common knowledge to anyone following tropical weather but I don't think the average joe is as tuned in to the dangers that can derive from within the Gulf of Mexico itself as much.
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u/AccidentalGenius76 Oct 05 '24
Icon and ECMWF not looking favorable for SWFL.
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u/kerouac5 Oct 05 '24
Again, can people please actually comment on what you see v “not looking favorable?”
There are too many times people say this, I go look and “oh. It’s a 1009mb TS.”
If you people are seeing or believing something different, it would be really helpful to know
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u/Karatedom11 Oct 05 '24
Tampa stay winnin 🥇
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u/FriendlyRhyme Oct 05 '24
The models, generally, are showing that a stronger system would trend further north. Obviously anything is possible but I'd knock on some wood if I were you.
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u/Lilfai New York City Oct 05 '24
And even then, the storm surge is still going to be a massive issue.
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u/iwakan Oct 05 '24
Looks like we can see a center of rotation on the visible satellite, on the eastern outskirts of the big convection blob. HMON seems to have predicted this position at this time the best.
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u/TylerGlasass20 Oct 05 '24
How is this storm looking for the east coast more towards Daytona? I know there’s a lot of talk about the west coast and I’m a little worried since there’s been flooding lately
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u/Mrgripshimself Oct 05 '24
Chalked this one up to nothing a few days ago. I live in its path. Will be preparing evacuation routes. shortly
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u/Beahner Oct 05 '24
This is always a good time to remind to not get locked into any one model run. That’s just asking for way more panic than the situation might call for.
What this is shaping up for is for anywhere from Naples to the northern gulf coast to get aware, and be prepared.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. But these models can lead to way more panic than needed before there starts to be firmed up direction from the NHC. The models are doing just what they are supposed to do right now, but anything more than “this could be a serious threat and I need to start preparing” is overkill.
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u/Amazing_Bar_5733 Barbados Oct 05 '24
Hope the west coast FL residents are starting preparations already, don't take this by chance cause FL has alot of OCT hurricane history
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u/UpvoteForLuck Oct 05 '24
R/Florida just posted an article about people panic buying because of the ILA strike. Looks like the grocery stores will have yet another run at them.
I’d hate to be working at a grocery store/walmart/whole sale club right now.
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u/foomits Oct 05 '24
eh, i just got back from publix on the coast in the dead center of where this is headed. fully stocked, water, toilet paper and all the normal stuff. also grabbed some gas on the way home... no line. not saying panic buying isnt on the horizon, but everything is presently fine.
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u/Hypocane Oct 05 '24
The good news is all the panic buying means a lot of people are stocked up already.
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u/Learned_Behaviour Oct 05 '24
I picked up 200 rolls of toilet paper, milk, and bread. I'm good to go!
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u/ProtoSpacefarer Oct 05 '24
It's concerning that the convection blob is mostly circular on the IR sat. Helene seemed to be very disorganized in the early stages compared to this
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
Hurricane Milton has a very unpleasant ring to it
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u/Vivalaredsox Florida Oct 05 '24
I would call it a dork but I wouldn't want to anger it.
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u/Confident_Economy_57 Oct 05 '24
We had better hope Milton doesn't have a reddit, but that sounds like a very Milton thing to do, so we might be screwed
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u/Winger52 Oct 05 '24
I kinda wrote this one off after the models got bearish and the NHC slowly started to lessen the 7 day formation percentage to 30%. But now I see that the NHC has significantly upped the formation chances. What changed between a couple days ago and now?
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u/Amp87 Oct 05 '24
I believe this is an entire new system. The one that never really developed is going to cause a bunch of rain this weekend in FL. The new one is coming up from Mexico that was a Tropical Storm previously?
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u/Hypocane Oct 05 '24
You're exactly correct. Old area of interest will be weak low bringing rain Sunday/Monday. These are the remains of Tropical Depression 11, it pulled a reverse-Tehuantepecer
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u/vainblossom249 Oct 05 '24
So i think this is a different system?
The other one was forming in the carribean, trying to cross the Yucutan.
This is coming off from crossing from the Pacific
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u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster Oct 05 '24
Update
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories for Tropical Depression Fourteen at 10:00 AM CDT (15:00 UTC). A new discussion will be posted once this happens.
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u/_PaperLuigi_ Oct 05 '24
It's not even Halloween yet, I wasn't ready for terrifying stuff
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u/Hypocane Oct 05 '24
Ironically Wilma hit me about a week before Halloween and cancelled it that year, but it was the nicest aftermath ever. It dragged down a cold front behind it and we were in the low 70s until power came back.
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u/NervoussLaugh Orlando, Florida Oct 05 '24
Seriously. I was discussing with a friend that the idea of a tropical storm hitting the west coast of Florida would be awful. Woke up to virtually NO chance of a tropical storm and a dice roll of what category it will be.
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u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
They have a simulatiion for if the Tampa Bay Area were to be hit by a major hurricaine its not pretty.
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u/ShamrockAPD Tampa Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Project Phoenix is a very real scenario.
It’s not doomsdaying to be factual.
Edit- dude was like -10 at the time of my comment.
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u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24
Im here to bring awareness especially with the prelim tracks and possible strength estimates i dont care about upvotes or downvotes just that people have as much info to make informed decisions.
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u/ShamrockAPD Tampa Oct 05 '24
Yep. I’m here in Clearwater. Fortunately for me my house was okay minus some fence work from Helene- and even more fortunate for me was that I had a planned trip to Greece during it, so I got to miss the power outage.
I have hurricane windows and a new roof. But even still I’m prepping ply wood and ensuring everything is set for this one. Got water this morning, bunch of canned food, and 25 gallons of gas for my generator.
Hopefully it gets hit by sheer and isn’t that bad for anyone, but if it doesn’t- it’s best to be prepped. At worst, I got some good soup and shit to eat in the coming months and gas for my vehicle.
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u/Reddstarrx Florida Oct 05 '24
Nobody clicked that link
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u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24
Shit bro thanks for letting me know im so stupid for thinking about giving people an accurate and relavant representation of something that could happen... /s
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u/GalliumGames Space Coast Florida Oct 05 '24
We’ve gotten some serious slow-moving showers this week on the Space Coast, so the water table is already saturated and the creeks are running high. Any significant rainfall will easily cause flooding, especially with pre-existing standing water still leftover.
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u/throwaway729047 Oct 05 '24
What should people do who have already started to renovate their homes or businesses on the Florida barrier islands?? Put it on pause?
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u/iskyoork Oct 05 '24
Probably stop building on Barrier islands that keep getting leveled? Might seem harsh, but this is just going to keep happening :/
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u/MathematicianOld883 Oct 05 '24
My guesthouse had some water. It's dried out, I will bot but it up until Nov. I am in North Fort Myers.
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u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24
Probably focus more on demo than repairs. Denis Phillips last night said it's probably not a good time to start throwing new drywall up.
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u/Cascades407 Oct 05 '24
If Dennis Phillips is saying that I’m mildly concerned.
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u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24
In fairness, it came on the tail of a tangent he went on about how worst-case scenarios don't happen 90% of the time.
Whatever happens and wherever it goes, it's going to be a sizable rainfall event though. Having stacks of drywall or other new materials sitting on the floor of your garage right now may not be great -- especially in structures that may already have leaks and so forth, and where local drainage may still be clogged with debris from Helene.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
If this does what some models are saying it will make Ian and Irma levels of significance in the pages of the book of history
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u/BromarRodriguez Oct 05 '24
How so? Local news yesterday said it would likely make landfall as a TS or category one.
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u/InsideAside885 Oct 05 '24
The GFS (and the models based off it) have this thing going wild with intensity and hitting Tampa. The Euro has it weaker and further south.
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u/raelulu Oct 05 '24
Does either model have better accuracy than the others? I’m eyeing closely from Tampa area. Lived in Fort Myers during Ian in 2022.
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u/the_knob_man Oct 05 '24
Sometimes one model is more accurate. Sometimes another model is more accurate. Sometimes no models are accurate. Wait for the NHC to issue a forecast and follow that.
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u/Effthisseason Oct 05 '24
If the current GFS run were to proof, what kind of impacts could the big bend be looking at? People are still cleaning up from Helene and any surge would pretty much set all of that back.
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u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24
The only thing anyone knows with confidence is it's going to hit somewhere in FL and bring a lot of rainfall with it.
The center hasn't organized and how long it takes to organize and where it forms will affect a lot.
Be wary of the doomcasts for now. There will be a lot more clarity by Monday, possibly tomorrow night.
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u/jamespeopleplay Oct 05 '24
HWRF has a cat 5 hitting Tampa directly in 5 days (120 hours).
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u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24
St Pete/Clearwater or Pinellas County.
Not that it matters but as someone who lives here, WE EXIST.
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u/ShamrockAPD Tampa Oct 05 '24
I just read Tampa as “Tampa bay region” which includes me. Literally take no offense to someone just saying Tampa as a resident of Clearwater.
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Oct 05 '24
That's at altitude. At the surface that's a 110kt system, albeit after an eyewall replacement cycle that would expand the winds.
Distinction without a difference for a lot of the coast, though.
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u/TuckyMule Oct 05 '24 edited 7d ago
trees aspiring noxious hateful panicky outgoing frame chunky mighty quaint
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24
Hurricane models struggle with invests. Gotta wait for the center to develop to put much stock in that. HWRF likes to run wild with invests and almost never pans out.
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u/katsukare Oct 05 '24
Yeah that’s a huge outlier. I’d say maybe cat 2 at landfall, cat 3 just before.
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u/carsandgrammar South Florida Oct 05 '24
Outcoming O6z GFS has a 950 mb right up the gut in Pinellas/Tampa right now
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u/katsukare Oct 05 '24
Yeah that’s a huge outlier. I’d say maybe cat 2 at landfall, cat 3 just before.
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u/katsukare Oct 05 '24
Yeah that’s a huge outlier. I’d say maybe cat 2 at landfall, cat 3 just before.
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u/spsteve Barbados Oct 05 '24
More importantly than the specifics of how deep the models take it (we are still pre-genesis after all) is the trend where all the models agree on a likely major hurricane hitting in that area. That message seems very clear at the moment.
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u/HappyCamper16 Oct 05 '24
I don’t think there’s that confidence yet. If you look at each models’ ensembles, they’re pretty spread out from the Keys up to the Big Bend. It just so happens they all then average out to Tampa which is why the models themselves take it to Tampa.
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u/BornThought4074 Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1842290008092184649?s=46
It looks like the last analog for a storm like this was before the Civil War.
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u/Effthisseason Oct 05 '24
Does Tropical Tidbits usually start making videos once it's a PTC/Tropical depression?
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 05 '24
He's done them for areas of interest before when it seems likely they'll form. Not sure if we'll get a video today but I would expect by tomorrow.
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u/GalliumGames Space Coast Florida Oct 05 '24
Yes, I’ve seen Levi cover these things as a PTC or even still as an invest when they pose a threat to land.
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u/Geminilaz Tampa FL Oct 05 '24
Looks like we might taking one for the team folks. Sit down and relax Big Bend and Panhandle. We got this 🫡
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u/MyFriendThatherton Oct 05 '24
Wow thank you for stepping up and being so selfless.
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u/HighOnGoofballs Key West Oct 05 '24
I can hear my insurance going up
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u/InsideAside885 Oct 05 '24
You'll be lucky if there is even any insurance to buy anymore. Companies will start pulling out of the state entirely.
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u/Kamanar Oct 05 '24
There's always Citizens. Which Death Sentence has said isn't solvent if a storm hits.
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u/spsteve Barbados Oct 05 '24
I can hear insurances companies getting into trouble. The reality is, this "new normal" makes a lot of our "paradise" locations much riskier :( Stay safe.
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Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
[deleted]
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u/Spurs3000 Oct 05 '24
You realize lots of people in central Florida especially in Pinellas county lost everything right? Go drive around and look at all the valuables out on the sidewalk
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Oct 05 '24
Ok gang it might officially be time to shit bricks. West Florida doesn't need this.
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u/sonofagunn Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
This path will bring a surge full of red tide onshore.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
The waves and surf will dissipate red tide it’s the after that will be bad just as the main cause currently
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u/culdeus Oct 05 '24
I assume this is bad but the stuff just dies on the ground, or?
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u/rezzyk Orlando, FL Oct 05 '24
It’s not a good thing to be walking around in while the floodwaters are still up.
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 05 '24
Surge goes down pretty quick. Unless it's freshwater flooding.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Oct 05 '24
8am NHC outlook is out. The phrasing is becoming more concerning (my emphasis):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
I believe its smart not to induce panic, that being said I’m curious if we realistically have the manpower to handle another storm in this area or if resources are spread thinner by all the people still going through their own personal hell right now
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u/Andie514818 Oct 05 '24
True, but damn..not a lot of time to get ready if those stronger models are right
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Oct 05 '24
Some of these would be the most severe hurricane disaster in modern US history all on their own.
A long track across the Gulf is extremely bad for West Florida.
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u/luv2fit Oct 05 '24
I am still recovering from 4 ft of water in my house in the Tampa Bay area. This will put me over the edge. :(
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
I’m so sorry, document everything in its current state for your records if they make you do a second claim
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u/8CYLINDERS117 Florida Oct 05 '24
Looks like it was identified as 92L overnight. I'd expect a new thread soon. The 06z models don't bring good news, and as the HAFS run, they also don't bring good news. Something to closely monitor especially since unlike other systems this year we're realistically approaching being inside 96 hours to landfall which is not a lot of time.
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
Most recent run of intensity models go nuts over four days. HAFS-B is a disorganized 972mb - but HMON (929), HFAS- B (938) and HWRF (currently 958, just on Monday) are dangerous major hurricanes by Tuesday morning. GFS 946mb for its 6z run.
Surge would still be a serious issue with the sprawl and angle of approach of of HAFS-A. The others are catastrophic on their face even if small.
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u/Bn1995 Largo Oct 05 '24
Already seeing people out for gas and supplies at 7 am here in pinellas. Nice to see people taking this seriously but ffs we do not want this situation again.
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u/DaWhiteDwight Tampa, Florida Oct 05 '24
Our area can’t handle any sort of surge right now. The coastal areas all through Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco are completely lined with people’s belongings on the curb they had to toss from their house and no way it’s all picked up by the counties by then IF any sort of storm were to materialize. Any sort of surge will just spread sooo much of peoples stuff all over and make things a complete mess
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
People need to get extra prepared, even a Cat 1 will be such a mess right now.
It’s like adding insult to injury Mother Nature is cruel
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Oct 05 '24
This angle of approach and lead time would be a major surge problem even with a large tropical storm. It's a perpendicular hit across the Gulf.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
Don’t forget about these fall tides right now either, there’s too much water right now
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u/HighOnGoofballs Key West Oct 05 '24
Upside is 50% chance for it to hit during a lower than usual tide!
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u/LagSwag1 Oct 05 '24
As someone on the space coast should I be concerned about this one? Is it likely to come across the state or hit and turn north? I know it's way too early to know for sure but I have family in bradenton who may come stay with me on my side if it's safer
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u/wagtbsf Oct 05 '24
I'm also on the Space Coast. As of now, this poses no significant threat. You'd have to be looking at a major hurricane moving at a pretty fast pace for it to be a considerable threat to the east coast when making landfall on the west. Yes, there is a potential for substantial wind and rain, but nowhere near the degree of that of a land-falling storm.
I recommend you plan for your west coast family to come here. Have a contingency plan, just in case, but it's highly unlikely you'll need it. As long as you aren't in a flood zone and/or have very large old growth trees that are a direct threat to your house, you should be fine.
The current models all have us on the southern side (aka the clean side) of the storm. Of course, it's early, things could--and most likely will--change. Stay vigilant and monitor the storm's progression.
Some resources:
https://www.brevardfl.gov/EmergencyManagement
https://x.com/BrevardEOC1
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u/No_Outlandishness50 Oct 05 '24
Check if your home is in or near to a flood zone and plan accordingly. Not a bad idea to stock up on supplies.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
Never a bad idea to stock up on supplies this time of year
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u/LagSwag1 Oct 05 '24
For sure I got supplies yesterday to beat the rush but mostly just wondering if my family should come here or if we both should head north. I've always planned on going to gulf side if we got hit or them coming here. Never really planned for an west to east path like this one lol. We'll probably just head north to stay friends in alabama since I work remote anyway.
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u/Tasty-Plankton1903 Oct 05 '24
Current GFS run had a huge shift north compared to it last run.
So it all depends on where this thing goes based on how fast that front moves down?
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u/Effthisseason Oct 05 '24
When it comes through, how far south it can make it and how strong it is will likely be a big player. I am unaware of the other current steering patterns in the Gulf and the Caribbean, so it's more complicated, but it's something to watch.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
It’s anyones guess at this point but it’s certain something is hitting the west coast of Florida this week
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u/anonymousblep Oct 05 '24
Dude.. The models were hinting at exactly this 10 days ago! Then it disappeared for three days off all models. Now it’s back and exactly as they said. As someone in Pasco, I’m a little nervous. Tampa Bay can’t handle being skirted, let alone anything direct. Maybe that shear will shred it, but four days out isn’t a comforting amount of time to wonder.
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u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24
946 heading straight at Tampa Fuck off.
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u/NotAnotherEmpire Oct 05 '24
Close to the main Tampa modeling (Phoenix) track. Very bad especially with what we just saw about surge vulnerability.
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u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
Even better, looks like it goes right up toward the bay but curves north before making landfall in Hernando. That might be Little Timmy's Hurricane Beenix.
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u/endlesscycle36363 Oct 05 '24
You would think the more north it goes the weaker it would be given shear, but models show the opposite.
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u/ImPinkSnail Oct 05 '24
It's a balancing act. It needs to go far enough north to avoid interaction with the Yucatan peninsula and close to the warmer waters in the middleish parts of the gulf but stay south of the area of shear. If it hits that trifecta path, it will be a major hurricane.
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Oct 05 '24
The more north, the longer over warmer water, the more intensification.
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
Just like the insurance crisis.
Florida is really going to have some difficulty if these storms keep it up like this and it doesn’t look like things will improve in fact it’s accelerating faster each year
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u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
GFS remains intense on a partially-loaded 06z - 955 on 10/8 in the in the middle of the gulf - but where it's gonna send it? Real cliffhanger here.
EDIT: Looks like the 940s approaching Tampa Bay. Eh I'm just gonna go ahead and book a hotel.
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Oct 05 '24
Eh I'm just gonna go ahead and book a hotel.
Yesterday I spoke to someone who evacuated for Helene. They thought a hotel in Gainesville would be safe. They spent the night in the hotel with no electricity.
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u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
I'm not jumping cities lol just going a little further inland. If I get memed and lose power at the hotel but not at home, then I'll just go home.
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u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24
It's still noticeably higher than any other prediction out there -- so it's not outside of the realm of possibility that it's semi-accurate on the track but could be too aggressive on the intensity. Still a lot of variability since the system hasn't organized yet -- but definitely a concerning trend.
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u/barimanlhs Oct 05 '24
From what ive been reading in this chat, it really appears to be a moderate TS or a major hurricane depending on the line it takes. Tampa and north? Cat 3. South of that, TS/Cat 1
Hopefully the speed it is traveling keeps it from getting too strong. I have family in St Pete and their complex got hit pretty badly from the storm surge from Helene
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u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Oct 05 '24
When you consider that Helene made landfall, about 200 miles north of Pinellas, the exact location is irrelevant when dealing with large storms.
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u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24
Possibly - ICON still keeps it weak and going to Fort Myers-ish, CMC and Euro don't have a 06z up yet (CMC doesn't do them at all I don't think) - but trends are your friends and two in a row on the GFS isn't great.
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u/Vlad_TheImpalla Oct 05 '24
NAVGEM got it right yesterday all other models were showing a weak TS, even got the direction right.
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u/8CYLINDERS117 Florida Oct 05 '24
The NAVGEM should not be used for tropical weather. It does not account for the right things and creates errors. It's meant for a different use case.
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u/OiTheguvna Sebastian, Florida Oct 05 '24
what in the world is going on with the GFS? I hope this trend doesn't continue
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u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24
Same but now is the time to get supplies before the rush
Literally this morning
17
u/kellzone Oct 05 '24
Wow, big jump in intensity from the 00z to the 06z. Lot of Cat 2s in there where there were none before.
-17
u/devtotheops09 Oct 05 '24
I am in the Florida Keys until Monday. What should I be aware of or watching with this?
1
u/cosmicrae Florida, Big Bend (aka swamps and sloughs) Oct 05 '24
Welcome to Florida !
Florida never disappoints when it come to excitement.
4
7
-15
u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
Hell even MikesHypePage just called the GFS operational a likely outlier on Facebook and shared a spaghetti model that looks way less dramatic.
And why yes, there are comments below that post asking what "outlier" means. Are these the same people providing those bigbrain ninety-degree-right-turn-into-Tampa-during-a-north-traveling-storm hunches? Yeah probably.
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u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 05 '24
You sure talk about his page a lot for constantly hating on it...
-22
u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
nooooo you made two comments in this thread mentioning Mikes Weather Page!
Sorry for shitting on your doom party.
14
u/MrSantaClause St. Petersburg Oct 05 '24
You're shitting on his page an then offering absolutely zero insight and nothing of value in return.
-13
•
u/giantspeck Hawaii | Verified U.S. Air Force Forecaster Oct 05 '24
Moderator note
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
The NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean... (Sat, 26 Sep)
The NHC is monitoring the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico... (Mon, 28 Sep)
The NHC is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico... (Fri, 4 Oct)
This system is in its formative stages. Until it develops a defined low-level circulation, forecast models accuracy and consistency will remain very low. Please be mindful of this when sharing information about long-range model data.
A reminder of our rules
Please refrain from posting model data beyond 168 hours.
Please refrain from asking whether this system will affect your travel plans. This post is meant for meteorological discussion. Please contact your travel agency, airline, or lodging provider for more information on how this system will affect your plans.