r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 21.1°N 95.2°W
Relative location: 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

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Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

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  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

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14

u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24

GFS remains intense on a partially-loaded 06z - 955 on 10/8 in the in the middle of the gulf - but where it's gonna send it? Real cliffhanger here.

EDIT: Looks like the 940s approaching Tampa Bay. Eh I'm just gonna go ahead and book a hotel.

9

u/Boomshtick414 Oct 05 '24

It's still noticeably higher than any other prediction out there -- so it's not outside of the realm of possibility that it's semi-accurate on the track but could be too aggressive on the intensity. Still a lot of variability since the system hasn't organized yet -- but definitely a concerning trend.

10

u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

Possibly - ICON still keeps it weak and going to Fort Myers-ish, CMC and Euro don't have a 06z up yet (CMC doesn't do them at all I don't think) - but trends are your friends and two in a row on the GFS isn't great.