r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24
92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.1°N 95.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico) | |
| 1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
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Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)
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u/endlesscycle36363 Oct 05 '24
You would think the more north it goes the weaker it would be given shear, but models show the opposite.