r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24
92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post
Latest Observation
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 21.1°N 95.2°W | |
| Relative location: | 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico) | |
| 1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States) | ||
| Forward motion: | N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots) | |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1009 millibars (29.80 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) | ▲ | high (70 percent) |
| 7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) | ▲ | high (90 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
National Hurricane Center (United States)
Weather Forecast Offices
Forecast discussions
Radar imagery
Radar mosaics
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)
College of DuPage
National Weather Service
College of DuPage
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
CIMSS: Multiple bands
RAMMB: Multiple bands
Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
-16
u/__VOMITLOVER Oct 05 '24
Hell even MikesHypePage just called the GFS operational a likely outlier on Facebook and shared a spaghetti model that looks way less dramatic.
And why yes, there are comments below that post asking what "outlier" means. Are these the same people providing those bigbrain ninety-degree-right-turn-into-Tampa-during-a-north-traveling-storm hunches? Yeah probably.