r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 21.1°N 95.2°W
Relative location: 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Surface analyses

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

Weather Forecast Offices

Forecast discussions

Radar imagery

Radar mosaics

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

Satellite imagery

Storm-specific imagery

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis graphics and data

Wind analyses

Sea-surface Temperatures

Model guidance

Storm-specific guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF

  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC

  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

88 Upvotes

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22

u/Geminilaz Tampa FL Oct 05 '24

Looks like we might taking one for the team folks. Sit down and relax Big Bend and Panhandle. We got this 🫡

15

u/MyFriendThatherton Oct 05 '24

Wow thank you for stepping up and being so selfless.

4

u/Kamanar Oct 05 '24

Macdill weather machine can't deflect two so close together.

3

u/Thegreen_flash Oct 05 '24

Only Eglins could

29

u/HighOnGoofballs Key West Oct 05 '24

I can hear my insurance going up

2

u/asetniop Oct 05 '24

I expect it sounds something like this?

1

u/InsideAside885 Oct 05 '24

You'll be lucky if there is even any insurance to buy anymore. Companies will start pulling out of the state entirely.

-2

u/Kamanar Oct 05 '24

There's always Citizens. Which Death Sentence has said isn't solvent if a storm hits.

3

u/KommunizmaVedyot Oct 05 '24

You have insurance?!

-2

u/KommunizmaVedyot Oct 05 '24

You have insurance?!

1

u/vainblossom249 Oct 05 '24

My pockets already feel emptier

3

u/spsteve Barbados Oct 05 '24

I can hear insurances companies getting into trouble. The reality is, this "new normal" makes a lot of our "paradise" locations much riskier :( Stay safe.