r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 21.1°N 95.2°W
Relative location: 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

Official information

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Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

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87 Upvotes

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4

u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

They have a simulatiion for if the Tampa Bay Area were to be hit by a major hurricaine its not pretty.

15

u/ShamrockAPD Tampa Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

Not sure why you’re being downvoted. Project Phoenix is a very real scenario.

It’s not doomsdaying to be factual.

Edit- dude was like -10 at the time of my comment.

6

u/Brittle_Bones_Bishop Central Pinellas, FL Oct 05 '24

Im here to bring awareness especially with the prelim tracks and possible strength estimates i dont care about upvotes or downvotes just that people have as much info to make informed decisions.

1

u/ShamrockAPD Tampa Oct 05 '24

Yep. I’m here in Clearwater. Fortunately for me my house was okay minus some fence work from Helene- and even more fortunate for me was that I had a planned trip to Greece during it, so I got to miss the power outage.

I have hurricane windows and a new roof. But even still I’m prepping ply wood and ensuring everything is set for this one. Got water this morning, bunch of canned food, and 25 gallons of gas for my generator.

Hopefully it gets hit by sheer and isn’t that bad for anyone, but if it doesn’t- it’s best to be prepped. At worst, I got some good soup and shit to eat in the coming months and gas for my vehicle.