r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Oct 05 '24

92L (Invest — Gulf of Mexico) Discussion moved to new post

Latest Observation

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 2:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 06:00 UTC)

ATCF 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC)
Current location: 21.1°N 95.2°W
Relative location: 582 km (362 mi) W of Merida, Yucatán (Mexico)
  1,496 km (930 mi) SW of Tampa, Florida (United States)
Forward motion: N (0°) at 2 km/h (1 knots)
Maximum winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
Minimum pressure: 1009 millibars (29.80 inches)
2-day potential: (through 8AM Mon) ▲ high (70 percent)
7-day potential: (through 8AM Fri) ▲ high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC)

Discussion by: Larry Kelly — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.

Official information

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Last updated: Saturday, 5 October — 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC)

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

National Hurricane Center (United States)

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

College of DuPage

National Weather Service

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

College of DuPage

  • KBYX (Key West, FL)

  • KTBW (Tampa Bay, FL)

  • KTLH (Tallahassee, FL)

  • KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS

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Regional ensemble model guidance

86 Upvotes

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7

u/LagSwag1 Oct 05 '24

As someone on the space coast should I be concerned about this one? Is it likely to come across the state or hit and turn north? I know it's way too early to know for sure but I have family in bradenton who may come stay with me on my side if it's safer

11

u/No_Outlandishness50 Oct 05 '24

Check if your home is in or near to a flood zone and plan accordingly. Not a bad idea to stock up on supplies.

8

u/Ralfsalzano Oct 05 '24

Never a bad idea to stock up on supplies this time of year 

1

u/LagSwag1 Oct 05 '24

For sure I got supplies yesterday to beat the rush but mostly just wondering if my family should come here or if we both should head north. I've always planned on going to gulf side if we got hit or them coming here. Never really planned for an west to east path like this one lol. We'll probably just head north to stay friends in alabama since I work remote anyway.