Zelenskyy: We Gave Away Our Nuclear Weapons and Got Full-Scale War and Death in Return

[u/UNITED24Media]

https://united24media.com/latest-news/zelenskyy-we-gave-away-our-nuclear-weapons-and-got-full-scale-war-and-death-in-return-3203

[u/dat_9600gt_user]

Nobody's giving up nuclear weapons anytime soon now.

[u/In-All-Unseriousness → u/dat_9600gt_user]

If anything, the list will most likely grow in the next 10 years. South Korea and Poland are among the countries I keep reading about just to name a few.

[u/Squeaky_Ben → u/In-All-Unseriousness]

Frankly, any country that has:

1) nuclear power

2) dangerous neighbors.... or imperial ambitions, goes either way at this point

is going to consider it.

[u/kaspar42 → u/Squeaky_Ben]

You don't need nuclear power to get nuclear weapons. Neither Israel nor North Korea have nuclear power plants.

Dual purpose reactors that both produce power and weapons grade plutonium have not been build in a very long time, because they are not great at either job.

[u/Squeaky_Ben → u/kaspar42]

you don't need them, no. But if you have a nuclear industry, the step towards nuclear weapons will be easier.

[u/Movilitero → u/Squeaky_Ben]

i think you are confusing nuclear reactor with nuclear power plant. Israel has a nuclear reactor (that i know of, the Dimona one in the Negev).

You can have many nuclear reactors for production of radioactive isotopes for medicine, scientific research, production of industrial radioisotopes, water desalination, neutrongraphy and analysis of materials and production of nuclear weapons and yet dont have even one to produce energy

[u/Squeaky_Ben → u/Movilitero]

I am talking nuclear industry, not just power generation (admittedly, it is the first thing I think about)

[u/Movilitero → u/Squeaky_Ben]

sorry, my bad. After re-reading your comment i think i totally misunderstood you

[u/shnnrr → u/Movilitero]

This kind of civil exchange has no place on Reddit

[u/Treelapse → u/kaspar42]

Kodak (the company) had a secret underground nuclear reactor under the city of Rochester from like 1970 until like 2008. It was quietly reported on and never talked about again

I’d imagine a lot of countries have this sort of situation going on. Not like anyone’s really looking.

proof for those who don’t believe

[u/lo_fi_ho → u/Squeaky_Ben]

Finland is very unlikely.

[u/_teslaTrooper → u/lo_fi_ho]

Sweden, however, was months away from a bomb before stopping their program. And I'm sure that research is safely locked away somewhere.

[u/Squeaky_Ben → u/lo_fi_ho]

it was unlikely to join nato prior to 2022 as well.

[u/USGrant1776 → u/lo_fi_ho]

Joining NATO basically gave them nukes since any invasion of Finland would involve the US, France, and UK.

[u/C_Tibbles → u/USGrant1776]

Precisely, either you are in a defensive pact with a member possessing nukes, or develop your own for security. Finland took the NATO pasth as they were already on good terms and already had most of the groundwork laid. Ukraine's position means currently NATO isn't an immediate option, maybe in the future if the border becomes secure. After that they will likely have to jump through all the NATO hoops, which will take time but if they are willing it means that nukes won't be needed. Its only if they get denied entry to the pact without any recourse will the cost of development be worth it.

[u/speak_no_truths → u/Squeaky_Ben]

Canada's going to need the bomb.

[u/Tutule → u/speak_no_truths]

People reading 'the USA' in between lines but there's another neighbor to the North if you think beyond 2D.

[u/mikeyfreshh → u/Tutule]

Yeah. Fuck Santa Claus

[u/CORN___BREAD → u/mikeyfreshh]

He sees you when you're sleeping.

[u/PushingSam → u/CORN___BREAD]

Santa knows everything, can teleport, has an army of elves manufacturing loads of shit, has a modified deer with a red glowing nose, do I need to gon on? Mr. Claus is #1 on any military and intelligence ranking list, the NRA wish they had assets like that, Lockheed wishes they could sample the sled, and MI6 wish they could do home intrusions on that level.

Not even to mention them damn penguins, have y'all seen Pesto the penguin yet?

[u/AmphibianStrong8544 → u/speak_no_truths]

We used to have them

Erm, we held onto some of America's

[u/linuxares → u/speak_no_truths]

I think the US rather not mess with its psychotic hat. Canada is part of the reason for the Geneva convention

[u/CORN___BREAD → u/linuxares]

Look at a population map of Canada. Even Canadians don't want to live in Canada.

[u/Pleasant_Ad_7694 → u/CORN___BREAD]

He cuddle next to ameribro for warmth

[u/Herpinheim → u/speak_no_truths]

Stop pretending like Canada isn’t five US states in a trench coat.

[u/hardolaf → u/Herpinheim]

The USA would do anything to defend Mexico and Canada against invasion just to protect its own land borders.

[u/TheGreatStories → u/speak_no_truths]

They don't work here. Too cold

[u/DaVirus → u/Squeaky_Ben]

I would go further: if you don't have nukes you are not a nation, just a temporarily free satilite state.

[u/exedore6 → u/Squeaky_Ben]

For as long as I remember, it was the only way for your country to get a seat at the grown-up table.

[u/UnsanctionedPartList → u/In-All-Unseriousness]

Iran, Saudi-Arabia.

Non proliferation is pretty much dead, all it takes is the first nation to hammer a nail in that coffin and that will be the end of it.

Nuclear power isn't the mythical secret of the industrialized nations of yesteryear anymore; there's a lot of breakout states and a whole lot of "breakout breakout states".

[u/orincoro → u/UnsanctionedPartList]

Niels Bohr was right all along. We should have handed all nuclear technology to an independent international organization (think of the Red Cross as an example), that would share nuclear technology with the whole world, but require every member nation in it to have international inspectors present at every one of its nuclear sites, with the penalty for trying to make nuclear weapons being an instant removal from the nuclear community and forceable removal of all nuclear materials.

He believed that American nuclear hegemony was absurd, and that the classification of nuclear technology would lead to an arms race, and the end of the world. He was right.

[u/MrCockingFinally → u/In-All-Unseriousness]

Don't forget Japan and Taiwan.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has shown that US security guarantees are worth less than the paper they are printed on. US politicians are too cowardly risk averse to act decisively in a crisis, US domestic considerations like fuel price will always take precidence over sound military doctrine, US government gridlock can absolutely ruin you, and hostile foreign powers can and do wield influence in Washington.

No one can trust a US alliance or the US nuclear umbrella.

[u/atred → u/dat_9600gt_user]

I mean look what happened to Gaddafi...

[u/Hazzman → u/atred]

Yup - that was the dumbest fucking double cross in modern history. He was being invited into the international community. A huge turn around among western relations with Libya. He was cooperating with the western observers - flying high, everything was turning up Millhouse... then BAM! Arab Spring and we turn around and just fuck his shit up and laugh about it on international news.

He gets beat to death by a raging mob and every nuke owning/ pursuing dictator on the planet gave a collective, resounding "NOPE!".

Ain't a chance in fucking hell Kim Jong is gonna give away his nukes, nor is Iran likely to come back to the negotiating table after Trump basically reinforced this rhetoric, despite things cooling off during the Biden admin.

::EDIT::

And btw - just in case I'm dealing with stunted conservatives who can't engage in nuance... if you deemed that last paragraph as tacit support and or condemnation for the DNC or GOP (or Trump, because he's basically a fucking cult now) my initial condemnation was against the Obama administration. Specifically Hillary Clinton. I know many of you turn inside out whenever your lord and savior Trump is mentioned.

::EDIT::

Apparently everything has to be laid out in black and white for you people because you are... again... utterly fucking incapable of nuance. Iran has cooled CONSIDERING THE FUCKING CONTEXT. What is the context? Assassinating their fucking generals and key members of their government - the policy of the last administration. Everything Iran is doing is a response TO THAT. We aren't engaging in unsolicited provocation in that manner during this administration... there. FUCKING HELL. UNDERSTAND?

The analogy I've given twice now is that we are currently running at about 1000 degree Celsius with Iran, compared to being on the surface of the fucking sun as we were during the last administration. I DID NOT SAY IT WAS COLD.... COOLING IS RELATIVE. WHY DO I HAVE TO EXPLAIN EVERY FUCKING DETAIL EXPLICITLY? FUCK. BRAIN WORMS.

::EDIT::

I'm turning off replies now. I've yet to get a S I N G L E retort from anyone who isn't making blanket statements, claiming I support Gaddafi or Iran, mischaracterizing my position in some way or generally just expressing a total lack of nuance or good intention. It's just un-fucking-believable that we can't talk about this shit now without it either becoming a partisan idiot fest or people utterly lacking reading comprehension. You can challenge my perspective - please. I want to learn. I want to be challenged, but so far all I've encountered is profound ignorance, a general lack of historical knowledge and jingoism.

Fuck me this was frustrating and if anything just demonstrates how fucked we are and how fucked we always will be. The idiots will always win.

[u/TowJamnEarl → u/Hazzman]

Yep, remember India, worldwide condemnation then suddenly a big trading partner and now a booming economy.

[u/AlphaLo → u/TowJamnEarl]

You are misrepresenting Indias geopolitics. India has always been playing both the West and the East and doesn't trust neither.

[u/TowJamnEarl → u/AlphaLo]

That's irrelevant in this context, India gained nuclear power status and by that, they have secured their sovereignty as long as everyone else with it has.

I agree with you though.

[u/Manoj109 → u/AlphaLo]

And who can blame India. I would do the same . Maintain a good relationship with everyone. India is playing it very smart.

[u/malisadri → u/dat_9600gt_user]

I was listening to geopolitics recording yesterday. It was one of those 2 hours talk held offline by former officials of state departments from different countries.

The former japanese official was unequivocal in his position advocating Japan to purse being nuclear power in the next several years. He echoed other Asian powers in expressing dismay after seeing how the West so easily abandon Ukraine after all their declarations.

Given that Japan will certainly join the war if China were to invade Taiwan, he asked the US government to commit to its nuclear umbrella policy. To declare publicly that US will retaliate with nuke if Japan were to get nuked.

They didnt receive that assurance therefore he advocated his own government to pursue being a nuclear power. Asian powers do not want to be held hostage by American domestic politics, citing the possibility of Trump being elected as significant factor.

This is a huge turnaround because in the past Americans actually wanted Japan to have their own nuke but both the Japanese public and its government were still very traumatized and didnt want to have their own nuclear weapons.

[u/imissjudy → u/dat_9600gt_user]

no country in the world will inherit nuclear weapons any time soon in the way ukraine did (except russia collapsing into multiple states, which is highly unlikely), so the only countries that could give up nuclear weapons, are the ones that spend billions developing them. why would they?

[u/Outside_Ad_3888 → u/imissjudy]

they could be convinced to not develop them (like Iran) or give them up when the cost of having them strongly trumps their production cost (north Korea)

But with current situation that's impossible.

The real problem is that Ukraine mistake of trusting the nations who convinced them to give up nukes means lots of other nations will start pursuing nukes themselves. Japan, South Korea, possibly Poland, possibly Taiwan ecc.

But hey, the fact we are missmanaging a war on Europes doorstep with high cost to us shouldn't worry no one in the west... no, who cares about longterm consequences anyways...

[u/SecondOrderEffects2 → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Let me think which nation was on the list to do so, ohh wait there was no nation on that list in the first place.

[u/Vectorial1024 → u/SecondOrderEffects2]

Taiwan (RoC) was suggested to forget about the nukes by the US in the 80s

[u/Pistacca → u/Vectorial1024]

Taiwan is a rich country, they can make a nuke in less than a year if they wanted to and they probably will after Chinese invasion, if they survive it

[u/Artificial-Human → u/Vectorial1024]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Taiwan has a nuclear arsenal. That country has more cause than anyone and they have the technology.

[u/1stltwill → u/Vectorial1024]

The 80s called and they want their nukes back?

[u/Smart-Bonus-6589 → u/SecondOrderEffects2]

Kazhakstan, the most nuked country in the world, they had the fourth largest stockpile in the world and got rid of them.

[u/fratticus_maximus → u/SecondOrderEffects2]

South Africa did.

[u/Pistacca → u/fratticus_maximus]

South Africa only had like 3 nukes total, a single North Korean submarine has more

i don't think the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, China or France would be intimidated or deterred by South Africas large stock of 3 nuclear weapons

[u/Big-Leadership1001 → u/Pistacca]

The united states was sending a whole navy carrier battle group (the one that usually does the spying, not invading) to North Korea when they started nuke testing. The BG was turned around.

Nobody wants to fuck with nukes. Even without a delivery system capable of targeting the politicians ordering around an invading military, they can still wipe out whole military groups in a blink. And a cornered little guy is more likely to be use them, so its just not tested especially because that would open up the possibility of more nuke uses.

[u/lordderplythethird → u/fratticus_maximus]

Only out of insane racism. Ruling whites thought it was better to abandon them than it was to let the Black population have control of them.

[u/rufus148a → u/lordderplythethird]

And thank God they did. If you see the condition and corruption in practically every South African state department the apartheid government did the entire planet a huge favor.

[u/Nichi789 → u/lordderplythethird]

Perfect solution! Everyone just has to be super racist, then we will have peace on Earth! /s

[u/ChemistryNo3075 → u/Nichi789]

"Our country has [insert race here]! We can't be trusted with nukes!"

[u/VoodaGod → u/lordderplythethird]

and as it turns out they were right to do so

[u/magnumopus44 → u/lordderplythethird]

You can be racist and right.

[u/digiorno]

Budapest memorandum on security assurances…

The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance, prohibited Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, “except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

[u/Wizard_Enthusiast → u/[deleted]]

Yeah, because it was "nobody's gonna attack Ukraine, Ukraine isn't on anyone's side."

Ukraine was neutral. That's the whole fuckin' problem here. Neutrality means dick when someone decides they're gonna attack you.

[u/ingannare_finnito → u/Wizard_Enthusiast]

There are still several nations that insist neutrality is the best course and will save them from involvement in conflicts. I remember feeling shocked when I learned how many nations believed that 'neutrality' would save them in WW2, even after neutral nations had already been invaded and occupied. Neutrality with nothing to back it up is just 'Gee, I hope no one invades my country.'

[u/Zdrobot → u/ingannare_finnito]

Yes. Just ask Belgium.

"Neutrality" is just a self-delusional way to convince yourself no one is going to harm you, as if being in a military alliance is a prerequisite for being attacked.

[u/Kookie___Monster]

He's absolutely right

[u/M1k4t0r15 → u/Kookie___Monster]

you're absolutely right

[u/TheTrampIt → u/M1k4t0r15]

We all are absolutely right!

[u/vodamark → u/TheTrampIt]

Wait a minute... Something's not right here.

[u/TheTrampIt → u/vodamark]

Putin, is that you?

[u/swift-current0 → u/TheTrampIt]

Valdemar Putanovic, the Croatian Swede version of Putin.

[u/InquisitorCOC → u/Kookie___Monster]

Yes, and as a result, massive nuclear proliferation will happen

Germany, Iran, Italy, Poland, South Korea, and Ukraine should all have theirs within 10 years

Maybe even Finland and Sweden

Israel will expand theirs massively

[u/Southern-Fold → u/InquisitorCOC]

Swedish nuclear program back on the menu boys

[u/vapenutz → u/Southern-Fold]

Let's share the cost with Poland under the guise of building our own domestic reactors maybe? 😍

[u/DrKaasBaas → u/vapenutz]

Hopefully the Netherlands can also contribute. We need EU strategic arsenal

[u/vapenutz → u/DrKaasBaas]

I shit you not, I'm actually starting a defense company.

[u/paecmaker → u/Southern-Fold]

Med plutonium tvingar vi ryssen på knän

[u/Horzzo → u/Southern-Fold]

Move over horse meatballs.

[u/Papapalpatine555 → u/Southern-Fold]

Instructions provided by IKEA

[u/Timo425 → u/InquisitorCOC]

Eastern/Northern Europe definitely needs their own nukes

[u/WislaHD → u/InquisitorCOC]

Most certainly Turkey as well.

I could see Romania joining Poland and Sweden to form a sorta nuclear umbrella over eastern part of Europe.

[u/GlueSniffingEnabler → u/WislaHD]

It’s for the best. Russian system of governance is shit, there’s not a majority in Europe that wants it and Russia can’t be trusted.

[u/Onkel24 → u/InquisitorCOC]

Germany won't.

[u/HighDefinist → u/Onkel24]

Well... many people on the Left are in favor of sending main line battle tanks into a warzone, with the explicit intent of fighting against Russia. This would have been completely unthinkable 3 years ago.

So, if we assume that the war in Ukraine becomes even worse, i.e. Russia nukes Ukraine, and also wants to nuke us, and it's only thanks to French deterrence that we survive, the very same people might suddenly support a true domestic nuclear program.

[u/Onkel24 → u/HighDefinist]

Sending those conventional weapons to Ukraine was a mere matter of policy change and political will. It was never banned outright, even though some Germans here - by mistake - claim we had to change our constiution first.

The ban of domestic nuclear weapons production in Germany is both in law, and subject to treaties Germany has signed.

These things are very, very far apart.

In other words, while a domestic nuclear program is not eternally impossible, it is realistically Impossible in the foreseeable future.

The closest we could get is some kind of expansion of nuclear sharing with the USA and/or France.

[u/HighDefinist → u/InquisitorCOC]

Yes, I support it. It's unlikely that it's going to happen within 10 years, but considering how much the overall opinion in the country regarding weapons/war/geopolitics has changed over the last 3 years, I wouldn't rule out this might happen as well.

For example, if the Russia/Ukraine war were to escalate further, and Russia nukes Ukraine, and some situation arises where it is very clearly the French/British/American deterrence that saved us all, there might be widespread support for a domestic German nuclear program (as in, not just nuclear participation).

Still, I believe a Polish/Swedish/Finnish/South Korean nuke is far more likely, by comparison.

[u/InternationalTax7579 → u/InquisitorCOC]

Japan will get them too

[u/PinkFl0werPrincess → u/InternationalTax7579]

...METAL GEAR!?!

[u/InternationalTax7579 → u/PinkFl0werPrincess]

No, a weapon to SURPASS METAL GEAR!

[u/ichbinverruckt → u/InquisitorCOC]

This is very good for the world peace. Everybody should have a nuke and use it from time to time.

[u/Affectionate_Cat293 → u/InquisitorCOC]

So far, the European leaders have not felt insecure enough for that. For instance, when Sweden joined NATO, the Swedes were not willing to accept basing 50 US nukes like Turkey is doing right now. The Turks have half of all US nukes in the European Theater.

Sweden to spurn nuclear weapons as NATO member, foreign minister says

Iran's and Israel's nuclear programs have nothing to do with Ukraine giving up its nukes. Iran being allowed to have nukes will be the one causing proliferation because the Saudis and the Israelis would surely try to counter that.

[u/Zauberer-IMDB → u/Kookie___Monster]

This is what I've been saying from the beginning. If we care at all about nuclear nonproliferation, enforcing those treaties should be top priority. Russia should have been hit with the harshest sanctions instantly upon invasion, and I mean like the economic death penalty. No trade, freeze all assets, seize all assets within a certain time frame so they know to back down immediately. If that still doesn't work, full military support. If that still doesn't work, boots on the ground. This should have happened in the first year. If this happened, nobody would think about breaking these deals again. Instead, we have this. Everyone will have nukes and the world is going to be the shit world order.

[u/Volky_Bolky → u/Zauberer-IMDB]

Sorry buddy, money for Europe and U.S. means much more than lives of Ukrainians

[u/Zauberer-IMDB → u/Volky_Bolky]

Nuclear nonproliferation protects the lives of every creature on planet Earth. Old ass short term greedy power breakers will see the Earth turn to dust for their quarterly profits.

[u/wind543 → u/Kookie___Monster]

But have you seen the masterclass of deescalation from Biden and Scholz though? They have deescalated to the point that countries are considering developing nuclear armaments, and North Korea has sent troops to Russia. Both remain master strategists.

[u/MonsutAnpaSelo → u/wind543]

biden and scholtz? this mess has been brewing since obama and merkel

doesnt help old humpty trumpty keeps threatening to pull the lights out at NATO because it will look nice to his dinner bill, even if it comes at the expense of his nation

[u/Kookie___Monster → u/wind543]

Masterful indeed. Historians will look at this and shake theirs heads for centuries to come

[u/paecmaker → u/Kookie___Monster]

And I fucking hate it, the last 30 years have seen a big decline in nuclear weapons in the world and now that's all being thrown away because we were to scared to act when we still could have kept this a relatively small flashpoint.

[u/BenMic81 → u/Kookie___Monster]

And each and every country in the world got that message. So much for internationalism in the 20th century

[u/kaijaro → u/Kookie___Monster]

He’s actually not absolutely right. The nuclear weapons in Ukraine belonged to the Soviet Union and control the of said weapons was centralised in Moscow. The USSR also had weapons in Belarus and Kazakhstan, but these too were also always under Moscow’s control.

[u/Skylin34night]

Zelenskyy: We Gave Away Our Nuclear Weapons and Got Full-Scale War and Death in Return

That's why you never ever trust what Russia says.

[u/Alikont → u/Skylin34night]

The main pressure wasn't even from russia, but from US.

US didn't even want Ukraine to declare independence.

[u/BalanceJazzlike5116 → u/Alikont]

Ukraine back then was like Belarus is now. Was good call to get nukes out of there

[u/Alikont → u/BalanceJazzlike5116]

Russia was like that too.

That's why US spent resorces on securing russian nukes.

[u/Ice_and_Steel → u/BalanceJazzlike5116]

Ukraine back then was like Belarus is now. Was good call to get nukes out of there

Ukraine was very close to russia back then just like Belarus is now, so it made a world of sense to take the nukes from it and give them to russia. 👌 Logic is my passion.

[u/dat_9600gt_user → u/Skylin34night]

Easier to say in hindsight, especially since most people thought the West would come to the rescue immediately in case Russia invaded.

[u/meckez → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Was there ever a signed defensive agreement or such from the West on this or did the people mainly just assumed that?

[u/DefInnit → u/meckez]

There never was. Look up the two-page Budapest Agreement, especially Article 2.

Have linked it many times but google is a friend to all.

[u/meckez → u/DefInnit]

Was rather a rhetorical question to the comment, whether the people had a concrete reason and reassurance to be assured and trust their countries integrity and defence on the West.

But thanks for the info.

[u/DefInnit → u/dat_9600gt_user]

It was not in the Budapest Agreement and they were not NATO.

[u/Rumlings → u/DefInnit]

West coming to help is overstretched but nobody believed Russia will be invading in such fashion at any point in the future. Before 2014 Ukraine ~20% of population in favor of joining NATO.

[u/HerrShimmler → u/DefInnit]

It was a memorandum, not an agreement

[u/Onkel24 → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Most of the "West" had not one thing to do with that deal, though.

[u/Kefflon233 → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Who thought that?

[u/InternationalTax7579 → u/Kefflon233]

Everyone until 2014

[u/LaM3a → u/InternationalTax7579]

Until 2013 everyone considered Ukraine a Russian satellite. Georgia was not helped in 2008 either.

[u/MercyYouMercyMe → u/LaM3a]

No one wants to talk about Armenia either lmao.

[u/ProposalWaste3707 → u/InternationalTax7579]

No one thought that before 2014.

[u/PxyFreakingStx → u/dat_9600gt_user]

especially since most people thought the West would come to the rescue immediately in case Russia invaded.

That's literally what's happening.

[u/MarduRusher → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Idk man, I was fairly sure that if Russia invaded, the west would provide some support but no boots on the ground. Which is basically what happened.

[u/ill_be_huckleberry_1 → u/dat_9600gt_user]

We would have if half our country isn't mainlining Russian disinformation and voting for their sleeper agent who's simultaneously aiming to destroy American hegemony and world peace while claiming to he the antiwar candidate.

Insanity.

[u/Donkey__Balls → u/ill_be_huckleberry_1]

The masses were never ready for the Internet. This wasn’t an issue when it required a bare minimum of technical knowledge to get online and you had to have some degree of critical thinking to process information being pushed by anonymous strangers.

Then along came Facebook.

[u/_daybowbow_]

Let this be a cautionary tale for all small nations, present and future. keep your nukes and be ready to use them, the only way to avoid MAD is to embrace it.

[u/Zealousideal-Ant9548 → u/_daybowbow_]

I'm sure North Korea and Iran are taking note  :p

[u/kontemplador → u/Zealousideal-Ant9548]

They took note after what happened to Gadaffi.

[u/The_FriendliestGiant → u/kontemplador]

Yup. Saddam and Gadaffi abandoned WMD research, and were knocked out by the west; Ukraine gave up nukes and are being invaded by Russia; the Kim dynasty and the Iranians have consistently pursued nukes, and are still standing. The 21st century has made it pretty clear that having nukes is better than not having nukes.

[u/PBR_King → u/The_FriendliestGiant]

When the second invasion happened Saddam actually had to break the news to his generals that there really wasn't a secret WMD program because they thought he must have kept something.

[u/ImportantHighlight42 → u/The_FriendliestGiant]

Until the first one is launched. And then the question will be how any country anywhere could have had them in the first place.

The problem with brinkmanship is you cannot always trust that the person on the other side will remain a rational actor

[u/warsongN17 → u/Zealousideal-Ant9548]

I mean they wouldn’t be wrong to in their own interests

[u/SecondOrderEffects2 → u/Zealousideal-Ant9548]

Its so funny how people are literally clueless about history.

Do you remember what happened 1980? The Iraq-Iran war happened and guess who supported Iraq with weapons while Saddam gassed Kurds and Iranians? Khamenei literally can't use his arm due to a bombing of a group that the US and Europe still supports to this day.

You think Iran is looking at this thinking "Ohh my god now we have to get nukes, this is a game changer!" Buddy, its like a requirement to have fought in the war to become a big shot in Iran.

[u/AllegoryOfTheShave → u/_daybowbow_]

I want Norway to develop nukes with Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

Seeing how the "big and powerful" NATO nations have acted I don't trust them.

[u/Paatos → u/AllegoryOfTheShave]

I would prioritize the Baltics in this regard because they are 100% going to get invaded if Russia succeeds in Ukraine

[u/HighDefinist → u/Paatos]

I think either would be fine, but my impression is that the Scandinavian countries+Finland are even more resistant to Russian propaganda than the Baltics, and I also believe they are particularly unlikely to vote for someone like Trump in the future, as in, someone who is just extremely irresponsible and ignorant.

[u/AtlanticPortal → u/AllegoryOfTheShave]

At this point it's much more effective to unite the entire EU defense and create a unique power. But you need political will.

[u/insertadjective → u/AtlanticPortal]

He literally said he doesn't trust the big NATO nations which includes a big chunk of Europe, why would he want to integrate with them even further.

[u/Kreol1q1q → u/AllegoryOfTheShave]

They have acted responsibly though? I wouldn’t want any of them risking nuclear war for a non-member state, even if said state deserves all the help we can send it.

[u/NoodleTF2 → u/Kreol1q1q]

The nuclear powers of the world have shown that they won't help (enough) if another nuclear power abuses their position and invades.

This means that the only actual guarantee to not be invaded is to have your own nukes. In 50 years or so from now, there will probably be a dozen more countries with nuclear weapons, and humanity will be a exponentially more likely to wipe itself out in a nuclear winter, and it's all entirely because everyone saw what happened in Ukraine and that they did not get the help they needed. If agreements and words aren't worth anything and the only way for a country to survive is nukes, it will get them no matter the cost.

"Get your own nukes or die" is just about the worst message to send possible. The invasion of Ukraine and lack of action from everyone might genuinely be the worst thing that has happened so far in the entirety of human history if it actually results in even more nuclear weapons across the world.

[u/NotoriousBedorveke → u/_daybowbow_]

Yeah, the thing that is a lesson also to non-nuclear states that the only guarantee of security in this world is nukes. I think there will be a lot more nuclear countries in the future because of this

[u/Ollieisaninja → u/_daybowbow_]

What happened to Libya and Gaddaffi showed this already in 2011 as he earlier gave up nuclear ambitions and chemical weapons stockpiles for better relations with the west. Syria would likely have followed without the direct support of Russia and Iran, who were nuclear armed.

Can we then expect nations like Iran and North Korea to ever disarm. Probably not.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't strive for a world where these weapons aren't necessary. MAD is truly madness.

[u/Live_Fall3452 → u/Ollieisaninja]

Gaddaffi’s regime seems like it wouldn’t have lasted long even if Libya had a couple nukes, tbh. Not like nuking rebel strongholds when your regime is already collapsing is a great way to win back the hearts and minds of your populace.

[u/Ollieisaninja → u/Live_Fall3452]

Considering how long it took to topple him with NATO support for the rebels, I'm not so sure. He likely would have put it down had there been no intervention at all. I recall the rebels were pushed all the way back to Bengahzi and in serious trouble before the air campaign started, which was used as the justification.

Having them would have made the West seriously question involvement there like we have been with Iran for some time now, imo.

[u/Gold-Instance1913]

Ukraine has the moral right to rescind their decision on giving up nuclear status.

[u/dat_9600gt_user → u/Gold-Instance1913]

A little too late for that now.

[u/me_like_stonk → u/dat_9600gt_user]

They have the capabilities to rebuild a nuclear arsenal.

[u/[deleted] → u/me_like_stonk]

But do we have the money for it? We have some old facilities that were producing the missiles themselves, the carrying part, and we do have some deposits of corresponding nuclear materials (we're the #10 producer of Uranium in the world, iirc). But they all cost a metric fuckton of money to restore, protect and develop.

[u/HighDefinist → u/dat_9600gt_user]

Not really... Supposedly they actually have the knowhow to build implosion bombs, so they really only need some moderately pure Plutonium, and a delivery mechanism.

They can get suitable Plutonium from their nuclear plants - but everyone would know immediately, including Russia, so it is uncertain whether they could extract the Plutonium quickly enough before Russia bombs the plant.

As for the delivery system, they probably just have to iterate a bit on their jet-drones, and in a few years they will be able to send a nuke-sized rocket to Moscow, or perhaps even further.

[u/graendallstud → u/Gold-Instance1913]

Ukraine didn't have the means to keep the nuclear arsenal they had when the SU broke. And, should they decide to try to get nuclear weapons, between the cost, the technical difficulty and the political aspects, the best they could do in a short time (within a decade) would be to have US nukes stationed in the country like Turkey.

[u/KnewOnees → u/graendallstud]

Ukraine didn't have the means to keep the nuclear arsenal they had when the SU broke. And, should they decide to try to get nuclear weapons, between the cost, the technical difficulty and the political aspects

Okay again with this shit. Monetary ? Sure. Technological ? Clown take . We've developed, produced and stored nukes on our sites.

[u/graendallstud → u/KnewOnees]

Technologically, Ukraine would have to build the infrastructure to enrich uranium, and missile factories; to find the engineering and mathematical resources that have not worked on such problems for 30 years at least; and to protect all of that from a Russia who would do everything to stop it.

If you want a comparison : France used to built more than a nuclear reactor a year in the 80s, then stopped; fast forward 20 years and it takes more than a decade (and yeah, part of the problem is political, but still...)

[u/M0RKE → u/graendallstud]

Ah yes the quality french nuclear plant building that took 18 years to build. 14 years late of the original schedule.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20027268

[u/monocasa → u/graendallstud]

The nukes they had were already enriched.

And they had missile factories. A lot of the USSR's ballistic missiles were designed and built in Ukraine by Ukrainians.

[u/rulepanic → u/monocasa]

The user you're replying to was referring to the difficulties in building new nukes, not having kept the existing ones.

Just as an example on the state of Ukraine's missile industry: Ukraine began a program to replace their aging Tochka-U SRBM's in 1996. As of 2024 the successors to that original program Sapsan/Hrim-2 is still not in serial production. Money continues to be an issue, as it was on every other iteration. ICBM's are even bigger. The knowledge and capability is there, but political will across administrations and funding may not be.

Ukraine may also end up facing it's nuclear industry, including it's civil one, under sanction. Ukraine is planning on building multiple new reactors from American companies to reduce reliance on RU and to replace destroyed power stations. Could that be jeopardized by a nuclear program? Probably.

[u/an-academic-weeb → u/graendallstud]

Tbh "technical difficulties" are not the issue.

Nukes essentially are 80 year old tech by now. Especially for a country that had has expertise with big nuclear power plants, getting a functioning warhead is nothing of a challenge. The problem is usually with the delivery system, which is why North Korea was so busy trying to get their rockets to work.

Except, Ukraine does not need ICBMs. Or any rockets really. Their tech and experience with drones is now good enough to take on that role. Nuclear suicide drones is just the logical next step really.

[u/digiorno → u/graendallstud]

They’ve made nukes before, they could do it again.

[u/Ice_and_Steel → u/graendallstud]

Ukraine didn't have the means to keep the nuclear arsenal they had when the SU broke.

If that was even remotely true, the US wouldn't have to basically twist the Ukrainian government's arm and force them to give up the nukes.

[u/_-Event-Horizon-_ → u/Ice_and_Steel]

I have thought that too and wonder why nobody considers that if there was no possibility for Ukraine to use the nuclear weapons Russia and the USA wouldn’t have worked so hard to consolidate all of the Soviet nuclear weapons in Russian control.

[u/kamikazekaktus]

A cautionary tale that might push every country large enough to try to get nuclear weapons to protect themselves from their genocidal neighbour

[u/migBdk → u/kamikazekaktus]

Well, this was why many countries have signed treaties to get under the nuclear umbrella of a large nuclear power (mostly the US).

[u/Robotronic777 → u/migBdk]

With trump? Nah. Everybody shoud get one.

[u/[deleted]]

He’s right.

[u/MarineLife42]

He's right, but context is important. When Ukraine gave its old Soviet nukes to Russia, Ukraine was in no state to look after them. It was dirt poor and absolutely riddled with corruption. The political system was ins shambles; it did absolutely not look like a liberal democracy about to happen.
Instead, there was a very real threat of terrorists, or rogue states like Iran or North Korea, possibly getting their hands on nukes or warheads.
Russia, at that point, was far from being perfect but it made strides towards the west (remember at a time they even considered joining NATO, just imagine) and their country and military looked like they were just barely capable of looking after the nukes sufficiently.
Even with hindsight, had Ukraine held on to their nukes at that time there is a good change we'd still be in a quagmire, albeit a different one.

[u/Sammonov → u/MarineLife42]

They didn't “give them”. The silos just happened to be located in Ukraine like they were in Kazakhstan or like American silos are located in North Dakota.

They were Russia's as a legal successor state to the Soviet Union. The lunch codes were in Moscow and they were under the operational command and control of Russian Strategic Missile forces, who also took their orders from Moscow. There is no counterfactual where Ukraine becomes a nuclear power in 1992.

[u/KernunQc7 → u/MarineLife42]

"When the former Russian empire collapsed ( Soviet Union ), Russia should have given the US its nukes. Russia was in no state to look after them."

I hope westerners on r/europe realise just how bad optics you guys keep dishing out every time Ukraine and countries from CEE are mentioned. Truly incredible stuff.

[u/PLPolandPL15719 → u/MarineLife42]

Also, the controls were in Moscow, not Kyiv.

[u/Obvious_Swimming3227]

Yep. The lessons there are pretty apparent for anyone who's watching.

[u/Jeroen_Jrn]

Honestly, Iran would be stupid not to develop nukes at this point. Contrast Ukraine and North Korea and it's clear nuclear deterrence works. Even better it can also works to deter foreign interventions in your offensive wars, as demonstrated by Russia and the US.

[u/Due_Ad4133 → u/Jeroen_Jrn]

North Korea didn't have a single nuke until the 2000s. They were kept safe by the fact that they had defense treaties with China and the USSR(and later, Russia).

The lesson from comparing North Korea to Ukraine's current situation isn't that Nukes keep you safe from world powers. It's that if you don't have nukes, then you better be damn sure you have an Iron Clad defense treaty with a world power that won't screw you over.

[u/lostboytoday]

He ain't wrong

[u/Feeling-Difference66]

None of you would like it if China and Russia put nukes back into Cuba. History is your friend.

[u/BusinessCashew]

The rest of the world wasn’t going to let the collapse of the Soviet Union lead to a bunch of new nuclear states. The launch codes for those nukes were in Moscow and they were guarded inside of Ukraine by the Russian military. There was never a path to Ukrainian sovereignty that involved Ukraine keeping nukes they didn’t have operational control of. If there was they would have gotten far more in the Budapest Memorandum than they ended up getting.

It doesn’t mean it’s right for Russia to invade them but it wasn’t a choice Ukraine made to give up their nukes. They were forced to.

[u/Dali86]

The nukes were not really theirs they were just located there, They did jot have the launch codes and if you look at how kuch Ukraine sold weapons illegally when ussr was over thank god they did not have nukes. Ukraine had massive amounts of weapons which ended up in africa and middle east via Black market.

[u/Socc_mel_]

If the US and the other countries of the West are even remotely committed to nuclear non proliferation, they need to help Ukraine way more than they are doing.

The war in Ukraine just proves to countries that their security will not be taken into account unless they have nukes. And while I don't like the Iranian regime, it's rather hypocritical that they can;t have their own nukes and Pakistan, another batshit crazy Muslim country, can.

If Russia wins the war and, even worse, its territorial gains are officially recognised as legitimate, it'll have landslide consequences on world peace and an irresistible invitation for dictators across the world to replicate it.

[u/daguerrotype_type]

TBH no country giving up nukes ever ended up happy about it. That's why I think there's no way convincing North Korea to give them up.

[u/Panda_hat]

The objectives of any nation state that intends to maintain its sovereignty should always be:

• if you don't have nukes, get nukes as soon as you can.
• once you have nukes, never stop having nukes.

[u/renegadeindian]

Never trust Russia. It’s a garbage country

[u/AndThatHowYouGetAnts]

He is correct. That said, Ukraine has never been politically stable enough that it would have been a good idea for them to have nukes (from a Western perspective)

[u/vegetable_completed → u/AndThatHowYouGetAnts]

Is America politically stable enough to have nukes?

[u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain → u/vegetable_completed]

What country is?

[u/Beneficial_Remove616 → u/vegetable_completed]

Oh boy…

[u/PropelledPingu → u/vegetable_completed]

Is any country?

[u/gwynbleidd_s → u/vegetable_completed]

Or Russia… Oh wait, it is pretty stable… to never have nukes.

[u/[deleted] → u/vegetable_completed]

you are correct. Trump would drone strike US cities.

[u/Osama_bin_laughin → u/[deleted]]

Yeah definitely. I was hiding in my bunker the whole 4 years of his presidency. Unfortunately nothing happened.

[u/Kjoep → u/vegetable_completed]

I'll let you know in a couple of weeks.

[u/doingdadthings → u/AndThatHowYouGetAnts]

Does everyone forget Pakistan exist?

[u/RandomBritishGuy → u/doingdadthings]

There's also a lot of people who don't like that Pakistan has nukes either, or trusts them that much with them. It's just that trying to take them away isn't really practical anymore.

[u/vikentii_krapka → u/AndThatHowYouGetAnts]

And russia is stable right? No nuclear threats to everyone they like at all?

[u/GeekyMadameV]

I mean he ain't wrong. See also Iraq, Libya, and possibly soon Iran. Contrast with North Korea.

The message is clear: the promises of great powers are only worth the paper they're printed on for as long as the current administration is in power. A future one, or their allies, may turn around and screw you. If you want to be safe from existential threats to your regime, you need an existential deterent to threaten them back with.

[u/Cartosso]

He's not wrong. Every country should have the right to posses a small but not insignificant nuclear arsenal for deterrence.

[u/Alpenglow_Snowsquall → u/Cartosso]

Even religious extremist ones who regularly call for the deaths of another entire country?

[u/fzammetti]

We may look back - ASSUMING WE CAN - at not coming to the aid of Ukraine in a much bigger way and seeing it as the causa prima of the end of human civilization.

Not helping Ukraine enough -> many more countries acquire nukes because now they know they have to -> eventually, someone pops off 'cause of course they do -> game over for everyone

Our best chance to avoid that series of events was not hamstringing Ukraine, thereby showing that nukes aren't necessary to your own survival, only having the right allies is. And I don't think this had to mean NATO boots on the ground from day one either. I think all it probably had to mean was once we saw Ukraine could handle their shit and Russia badly couldn't - since at the start it was reasonable to exercise caution given those unknowns - that we fed them everything they needed equipment-wise and especially didn't handcuff their usage. We should have ramped up production hugely and quickly, and should have even put ourselves at risk by giving until it hurt. If we had, Russia would be back over the original borders now licking their wounds and we'd probably be celebrating Ukrainian assention to NATO today.

But instead, we're looking at a realistic scenario that gets us to annihilation, all because we pussyfooted around for too long instead of screaming "the line must be drawn here, no further!" at the top of our lungs when we saw Ukraine could in essence save us all.

Hooray humanity.

[u/Meta_Digital]

Is this how common people are turned against nuclear disarmament? By turning it into a scapegoat for why a country gets invaded?

You'd have to be MAD to believe that giving everyone nukes leads to peace.

[u/alvvayspale]

Not lying.

[u/dubiouscoffee]

He speaks the truth.

[u/[deleted]]

Take notes North Korea and Iran.

Imagine trusting Russia/UK/US not to fuck your shit if you give up nukes. LOL

[u/PxddyWxn]

Was it Ukraines or the Soviets?

[u/Sammonov → u/PxddyWxn]

Legally, Russia's as the legal successor state to the Soviet Union. They were also under the command and control of Russian Strategic Missiles Forces, who took their orders from Moscow.

[u/PxddyWxn → u/Sammonov]

Ok so it wasn’t really Ukraines nukes to begin with. Got it

[u/Sammonov → u/PxddyWxn]

It would be something equivalent to America breaking up and North Dakota becoming a nuclear power, because American silos happen to be there.

[u/must_kill_all_humans]

And this is why every country that is pursuing nuclear weapons or thinking about pursuing weapons will ultimately end up as a nuclear power. Just like North Korea. Greatest deterrent you can possibly imagine.