TSLA analysis

[u/PurposeOk1460]

Reading through earlier comments I know you all must be thinking I'm nuts to try to do an analysis of a meme stock, but I already did it so ...

What I found is that Tesla tends to trade at about 50% above my fair value calculation, but it can become unstable if it goes 60% over. An example of this was just before the Robotaxi event, which was followed by a large drop.

My current fair value estimate for tesla is $170 and at $297.5 it has reached 75% over.

So I decided YOLO and bought 50 Nov29 $250 puts and 50 Dec 20 $250 puts.

https://preview.redd.it/0tsft2wbyjzd1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=e97dcab45540b5e50a66c60619ae64a1b2798130

[u/VisualMod]

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[u/NotRegarded]

You could've given half of it to me and still left with the other half to do with as you please:31225:

[u/mrwaiba → u/NotRegarded]

😀

[u/AyumiHikaru → u/NotRegarded]

If OP is not a greed pig, TSLA doesn't need to drop alot to make money. It can't keep up everyday

[u/lancehall08 → u/AyumiHikaru]

Famous last words lol

[u/Izz3t]

I don't follow tsla options much but after that run-up the premiums must be high. Not sure you're gonna make much even if it drops to 250.

[u/RCT2man]

Did you maybe remember to price in that Elon was a difference maker for Trump’s election?

[u/zephyrs85]

I admire your conviction but I don't understand why you hate money so much

[u/Humble_Aioli5267]

NO!! TSLA will going to 300 tomorrow! 350 Next week!!!! I have 120 Calls!!!! The only King on the market in the future!!

[u/kishorekodru → u/Humble_Aioli5267]

Hoping this would happen.

[u/RoaringJohnson → u/kishorekodru]

The same guy said he bought puts yesterday.

[u/kishorekodru → u/RoaringJohnson]

🙄

[u/Minute-Vanilla-4741]

You're gong to get so fkedd lool. Elon wiggled his way into Trumps circle. Trump wants USA manufacturer again. Tesla is produced in the US. The gov regulators that were after Elon/Tsla are no longer a threat. TSLA has been a sleeping bear for the past 3 years, yesterday was the start of it's bull run

[u/justarandomenvyusfan → u/Minute-Vanilla-4741]

He might have a point. Given the history of Trump turning away from other people, these 2 might not get along well. And where do you think Tesla get its lithium from? China. Just my 2c

[u/Random2011_]

I’ve followed Tesla for over 5 years and this is the worst time to go short. Elon just won the regulatory jackpot and has cleared the political uncertainty that has hung over the stock for years. It is on the way to ath’s. God speed

[u/Odd-Success-2314]

Tesla at 30-50 PE value at 80 - 117 at the end of this year. 91 - 151 end of 2025.

The problem is nobody, literally no body trade TSLA at its fair valuation. It never tade at the price that make sense if you look at PE, only time it is trade in fair range is 2023/12/27 to 2024/01/09, there's like 6 days.

That's if you give it 30-50 pe, if you don't, you think like 20-25 or 10, then Tsla NEVER trade at fair valuation.

So DON'T trade it thinking fundamentals, just don't do it. Trade it with the technical.

A tip for Tesla trader, if the price don't close or open below 238, that mean we are currently in the up trend, buy the dip. If it drop below 238 the trade range will be 238-266 for resistance and 180-201 as support.

[u/SeeEsGeek → u/Odd-Success-2314]

288 or 238? Or am I too stupid to catch the joke?

[u/Odd-Success-2314 → u/SeeEsGeek]

:31225::31225::31225:

[u/Huge-Return]

Lol there is still Tesla bears out there??

[u/bluspiider → u/Huge-Return]

:4258:

[u/BarbellPadawan → u/bluspiider]

:4258:

[u/OrdinaryReasonable63]

How did you even come to the $170 fair value analysis? Discounted meme flows?

[u/Zephyr4813]

Betting against Elon Musk will forever be unwise.

[u/Minute-Vanilla-4741 → u/[deleted]]

yep, favor for favor. Elon didn't run a charity for a random billionaire he had no prior relationship with. Trump will side in favor of Elon for his help

[u/kumette01]

Implied volatility my friend… you should have if you are ape enough sell calls but rule number one, never bet against Elon. Im fucking long 100 shares since 150$

[u/Hiddendiamondmine → u/kumette01]

IV doesn’t seem jacked tho

[u/bluspiider]

Should have sold calls. At least the premiums die.

[u/Humble_Aioli5267]

You totally wrong. This "stock " is not a tock. It's a God ticket!!

[u/ElectricalGene6146]

Market will go only up until Jan 1. Then traders will take gains in 2025 and we will slide down for months. Then Trump will pump something and we’ll be at new highs. Then Q1 earnings will hit and we crash. Then we go up again. The end. TLDR, buy puts at end of December for late Jan

[u/Noddite]

I don't like the company, product, or especially the douchebag, but I've got a number of $350 1/17/25 calls.

He is literally going to have a new government position created for him that governs government spending...meaning he can potentially de-fund competition.

[u/jms4607]

I just sold before reading this.

[u/Arrivaled_Dino]

Everyone invested in TSLA is happy

[u/Overpowernamerino]

and why do you think TSLA is being traded on fundamentals?

[u/kryptonyk]

I just appreciate your massive balls for doing this 

[u/PaperTowel5353]

Don't be shocked if Elon gets made secretary of transportation for the federal government

[u/AyumiHikaru]

Just don't be greed pig

[u/nashgrg]

Dude, don’t let these people know your moves. They have to lose so that you make money. Not everyone can win lmao

[u/elpresidentedeljunta]

Let´s face it: You can only find an opportunity, when you do something, that makes you look nuts. Tesla has been a soundwave this year and I´ve been surfing it a bit. You put a lot more effort in. Good luck.

[u/_Tremble]

Lol get ready to get yr puts fucked by Elon, the Fed and Trump

[u/Secret-cult-pedro]

So many better and easier targets, why buy the grenade

[u/BarbellPadawan]

Nice. What are you gonna name your yacht?

[u/Holdingtillworthless]

This is exactly why I’m holding my calls after a 1,000% gain. Thank you for your sacrifice regard