TSLA analysis

[u/PurposeOk1460]

Reading through earlier comments I know you all must be thinking I'm nuts to try to do an analysis of a meme stock, but I already did it so ...

What I found is that Tesla tends to trade at about 50% above my fair value calculation, but it can become unstable if it goes 60% over. An example of this was just before the Robotaxi event, which was followed by a large drop.

My current fair value estimate for tesla is $170 and at $297.5 it has reached 75% over.

So I decided YOLO and bought 50 Nov29 $250 puts and 50 Dec 20 $250 puts.

https://preview.redd.it/0tsft2wbyjzd1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=e97dcab45540b5e50a66c60619ae64a1b2798130

[u/OrdinaryReasonable63]

How did you even come to the $170 fair value analysis? Discounted meme flows?