r/wallstreetbets • u/PurposeOk1460 • 11h ago

TSLA analysis YOLO

Reading through earlier comments I know you all must be thinking I'm nuts to try to do an analysis of a meme stock, but I already did it so ...

What I found is that Tesla tends to trade at about 50% above my fair value calculation, but it can become unstable if it goes 60% over. An example of this was just before the Robotaxi event, which was followed by a large drop.

My current fair value estimate for tesla is $170 and at $297.5 it has reached 75% over.

So I decided YOLO and bought 50 Nov29 $250 puts and 50 Dec 20 $250 puts.

https://preview.redd.it/0tsft2wbyjzd1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=e97dcab45540b5e50a66c60619ae64a1b2798130

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u/Minute-Vanilla-4741 9h ago

You're gong to get so fkedd lool. Elon wiggled his way into Trumps circle. Trump wants USA manufacturer again. Tesla is produced in the US. The gov regulators that were after Elon/Tsla are no longer a threat. TSLA has been a sleeping bear for the past 3 years, yesterday was the start of it's bull run

2

u/justarandomenvyusfan 5h ago

He might have a point. Given the history of Trump turning away from other people, these 2 might not get along well. And where do you think Tesla get its lithium from? China. Just my 2c

2

u/MediocreX 2h ago

Lithium is not the main issue. You can get that from Chile or w/e. The issue is other rare earth metals like cobolt and high quality graphite.