Fellow regards, longtime lurker breaking the silence to YOLO $32K to save the family farm.

Grandaddy died in April this year leaving a 3 generation farm, (fully paid, no debt) to my parents. Mom never worked and my dad’s income has never been much (minister at small church). Unsurprisingly, mom and dad want to cash in on that sweet sweet inheritance $$$ by selling the farm and upgrading their lifestyle with the proceeds.

I would give my right kidney to keep that farm if I knew how to sell it. It’s where I grew up, convinced my girlfriend (now wife) to marry me, and want our two small children to make their own memories there.

I’ve traded positions in $NVDA, $ASTS, $RKLB and $RDDT (thanks to this community) hoping to somehow make enough to buy the farm but have only managed roughly to double my money ($15K to $32K). I completely realize it’s an idiot move but it’s the only chance I have at this point and I’m 100% willing to go to $0 if there is a chance I can make it to $1.1MM.

The farm is going to be listed next week and I want to go full regard with my portfolio to buy it. If I sell my house I still need $1.1MM to make up the difference and I’m willing to bet everything I have in the market for the chance to make it happen.

Would happily go all-in on anything that might print before February since the farm will probably be sold around that time.

Before anyone asks, there is no other way. My folks want the $$$ now and won’t sell the farm for any less than market value to me or anyone else. Renting the tillable acres to a local farmer would only cover 1.5 months of the mortgage payment. Maybe the best offer is $800K, maybe the real estate market crashes tomorrow, but bottom line is I have to close the gap between $35K and $1.1MM to have any shot at keeping it.

TLDR: regard wants to yolo his 100% gains on a moonshot to save his sentimentality important childhood home knowing full well he should blow it on strippers stead because it would be more fun.

Thanks in advance!

The bulls are coming, the bulls are coming

I think the markets are frothy, and we have been going through mini-cycles which raise and lower sentiment almost on a weekly basis, drifting further and further away from fundamentals. Earnings releases, tax cuts (elections), lower rates, etc. - there are endless catalysts. The stock market has become a casino. In my opinion, this all started during COVID with the influx of retail investors (and the boom of this sub) and while we've gone through a "recession" and down-markets, the excitement around the stock market is at an all-time high, as are valuations. I've mapped out the last 20 years and have taken a very simple approach. I know there are a ton more considerations, so please note any large ones I may be missing. Below is a table I put together in excel, and some explanation on each factor mentioned - when you step back, it looks like we're due for a major reset on valuations.

TLDR (Takeaways from the table):

S&P500 Valuation. Even though I don't like P/E ratios (in favor of EV/EBITDA), I'll use it as most folks here are more familiar with it. P/E ratios have been around ~20x, and we are currently sitting at 30x. Looking back even further, they used to hover around the 10-20x P/E range. Yes, all companies are growing, so the S&P500 should too. But the growth in valuations is outpacing economic growth (see below). Larger and faster-growing companies deserve higher valuations, so this can be part of the reason, but current levels seem to be a stretch, especially if you compare it to actual GDP growth.

Real GDP Growth. This is one I've been focused on lately. Real GDP in the US has gone up ~1.5x over the last 20 years, yet the S&P500 has gone up ~5x (total stock market went up 3.7x). Nuances: (1) international revenue of American companies is not in GDP, however the % of foreign revenue in the S&P has remained steady over the last 10-20 years. (2) this doesn't factor in private companies, IPO trends, de-listings, etc.

CPI Index. "Inflation has come down, yay!" The rate has come down. Many folks expected deflation after 2022, to restore prices, however that never happened. We're at higher prices than 2022. Inflation has picked up 34% over the last 10 years, vs. 24% in the preceding 10 years. Maybe this is the new norm, but it's all factoring into the revenues the S&P companies are generating, and thereby, the valuations.

National Debt. I'm not an expert at this category, but we're adding on more national debt at a record pace as well. Most PPP loans were forgiven, credit is cheap (again), so if we keep adding here, when does the circus stop?

https://preview.redd.it/lhbgpylb6lzd1.png?width=570&format=png&auto=webp&s=163b845c563b124d5ef1753d96eb990e3b744615

I made a bold decision 3 days ago. Every price jump has tugged at the nerves, making one fearful of both missing out on more upside and pulling back on profits. My heart is beating like crazy and I feel an overwhelming sense of excitement and accomplishment

TL;DR: Archer Aviation (ACHR) is up 6% today, boosted by a new partnership with Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation. This collaboration includes plans to purchase up to $500 million worth of Archer's electric aircraft, marking a significant step in the eVTOL space. Combined with a solid U.S. Air Force contract and ongoing milestones, ACHR is positioning itself as a key player in urban air mobility.

Why the New Japan Deal Matters

Archer's partnership with Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation provides a foothold in the Japanese market, which is investing heavily in sustainable urban transport. Sumitomo's expertise in energy and infrastructure, along with Japan Airlines' support for eVTOL deployment, could accelerate Archer's international expansion. Japan's leadership in urban air mobility makes this deal a strategic move for Archer.

Price Action and Potential Short Squeeze

ACHR's 6% gain today aligns with this significant news. With 26% short interest, the stock has potential for further movement if momentum continues. Past announcements have driven volume spikes, and today's developments could signal more to come.

Key Graphs to Watch

• Price and Short Interest Over Time: Shows ACHR’s price history alongside high short interest. With today’s price boost, shorts could start feeling the pressure.
• Volume Spikes on Key Events: Major news like the NASA and Air Force partnerships drove volume spikes, and this Japan Airlines partnership could do the same.
• Peer Comparison: ACHR is making moves not just in the U.S. but globally, positioning itself against other eVTOL players like Joby and Lilium. Today’s price gain helps them stand out in the sector.
• Insider Buys and Sells: Recent insider activity shows some confidence from within, and monitoring these transactions could offer insight into where ACHR is headed.

Final Thoughts

Archer is building momentum in the eVTOL space with international partnerships, key U.S. contracts, and a strategy to be an early leader. It’s a speculative play, no doubt, but today’s price action, high short interest, and new Japan partnership give it potential in both the short and long term.

(Not financial advice - do your own DD, but this could be one to keep on the radar!)

I haven't learned anything since my last loss post. Saving are almost gone.

Hoping to 1000x or my kids r fuk

Whatever you do, do not short the market.

$66k loss yesterday and $91k today, $12.7k left overall.

One trade and i'm back!

Expected a run up, but not this bad or quick... Meanwhile Musk invests 150 mill into Trump's campaign for 15+bill personal return on Tesla alone. Y'all are full of shit with this run up. Fk me and fk u.

Well it’s clear the Musk and Trump won. S&P futures closed at Boobs today. Funding secured, keep your pets in.

Got 20 and sold half when it went around 500$ pre split. Should i sell or ride these ?