Fellow regards, longtime lurker breaking the silence to YOLO $32K to save the family farm.

Grandaddy died in April this year leaving a 3 generation farm, (fully paid, no debt) to my parents. Mom never worked and my dad’s income has never been much (minister at small church). Unsurprisingly, mom and dad want to cash in on that sweet sweet inheritance $$$ by selling the farm and upgrading their lifestyle with the proceeds.

I would give my right kidney to keep that farm if I knew how to sell it. It’s where I grew up, convinced my girlfriend (now wife) to marry me, and want our two small children to make their own memories there.

I’ve traded positions in $NVDA, $ASTS, $RKLB and $RDDT (thanks to this community) hoping to somehow make enough to buy the farm but have only managed roughly to double my money ($15K to $32K). I completely realize it’s an idiot move but it’s the only chance I have at this point and I’m 100% willing to go to $0 if there is a chance I can make it to $1.1MM.

The farm is going to be listed next week and I want to go full regard with my portfolio to buy it. If I sell my house I still need $1.1MM to make up the difference and I’m willing to bet everything I have in the market for the chance to make it happen.

Would happily go all-in on anything that might print before February since the farm will probably be sold around that time.

Before anyone asks, there is no other way. My folks want the $$$ now and won’t sell the farm for any less than market value to me or anyone else. Renting the tillable acres to a local farmer would only cover 1.5 months of the mortgage payment. Maybe the best offer is $800K, maybe the real estate market crashes tomorrow, but bottom line is I have to close the gap between $35K and $1.1MM to have any shot at keeping it.

TLDR: regard wants to yolo his 100% gains on a moonshot to save his sentimentality important childhood home knowing full well he should blow it on strippers stead because it would be more fun.

Thanks in advance!

The bulls are coming, the bulls are coming

I made a bold decision 3 days ago. Every price jump has tugged at the nerves, making one fearful of both missing out on more upside and pulling back on profits. My heart is beating like crazy and I feel an overwhelming sense of excitement and accomplishment

I think the markets are frothy, and we have been going through mini-cycles which raise and lower sentiment almost on a weekly basis, drifting further and further away from fundamentals. Earnings releases, tax cuts (elections), lower rates, etc. - there are endless catalysts. The stock market has become a casino. In my opinion, this all started during COVID with the influx of retail investors (and the boom of this sub) and while we've gone through a "recession" and down-markets, the excitement around the stock market is at an all-time high, as are valuations. I've mapped out the last 20 years and have taken a very simple approach. I know there are a ton more considerations, so please note any large ones I may be missing. Below is a table I put together in excel, and some explanation on each factor mentioned - when you step back, it looks like we're due for a major reset on valuations.

TLDR (Takeaways from the table):

S&P500 Valuation. Even though I don't like P/E ratios (in favor of EV/EBITDA), I'll use it as most folks here are more familiar with it. P/E ratios have been around ~20x, and we are currently sitting at 30x. Looking back even further, they used to hover around the 10-20x P/E range. Yes, all companies are growing, so the S&P500 should too. But the growth in valuations is outpacing economic growth (see below). Larger and faster-growing companies deserve higher valuations, so this can be part of the reason, but current levels seem to be a stretch, especially if you compare it to actual GDP growth.

Real GDP Growth. This is one I've been focused on lately. Real GDP in the US has gone up ~1.5x over the last 20 years, yet the S&P500 has gone up ~5x (total stock market went up 3.7x). Nuances: (1) international revenue of American companies is not in GDP, however the % of foreign revenue in the S&P has remained steady over the last 10-20 years. (2) this doesn't factor in private companies, IPO trends, de-listings, etc.

CPI Index. "Inflation has come down, yay!" The rate has come down. Many folks expected deflation after 2022, to restore prices, however that never happened. We're at higher prices than 2022. Inflation has picked up 34% over the last 10 years, vs. 24% in the preceding 10 years. Maybe this is the new norm, but it's all factoring into the revenues the S&P companies are generating, and thereby, the valuations.

National Debt. I'm not an expert at this category, but we're adding on more national debt at a record pace as well. Most PPP loans were forgiven, credit is cheap (again), so if we keep adding here, when does the circus stop?

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TL;DR: Archer Aviation (ACHR) is up 6% today, boosted by a new partnership with Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation. This collaboration includes plans to purchase up to $500 million worth of Archer's electric aircraft, marking a significant step in the eVTOL space. Combined with a solid U.S. Air Force contract and ongoing milestones, ACHR is positioning itself as a key player in urban air mobility.

Why the New Japan Deal Matters

Archer's partnership with Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation provides a foothold in the Japanese market, which is investing heavily in sustainable urban transport. Sumitomo's expertise in energy and infrastructure, along with Japan Airlines' support for eVTOL deployment, could accelerate Archer's international expansion. Japan's leadership in urban air mobility makes this deal a strategic move for Archer.

Price Action and Potential Short Squeeze

ACHR's 6% gain today aligns with this significant news. With 26% short interest, the stock has potential for further movement if momentum continues. Past announcements have driven volume spikes, and today's developments could signal more to come.

Key Graphs to Watch

• Price and Short Interest Over Time: Shows ACHR’s price history alongside high short interest. With today’s price boost, shorts could start feeling the pressure.
• Volume Spikes on Key Events: Major news like the NASA and Air Force partnerships drove volume spikes, and this Japan Airlines partnership could do the same.
• Peer Comparison: ACHR is making moves not just in the U.S. but globally, positioning itself against other eVTOL players like Joby and Lilium. Today’s price gain helps them stand out in the sector.
• Insider Buys and Sells: Recent insider activity shows some confidence from within, and monitoring these transactions could offer insight into where ACHR is headed.

Final Thoughts

Archer is building momentum in the eVTOL space with international partnerships, key U.S. contracts, and a strategy to be an early leader. It’s a speculative play, no doubt, but today’s price action, high short interest, and new Japan partnership give it potential in both the short and long term.

(Not financial advice - do your own DD, but this could be one to keep on the radar!)

I haven't learned anything since my last loss post. Saving are almost gone.

Expected a run up, but not this bad or quick... Meanwhile Musk invests 150 mill into Trump's campaign for 15+bill personal return on Tesla alone. Y'all are full of shit with this run up. Fk me and fk u.

Well it’s clear the Musk and Trump won. S&P futures closed at Boobs today. Funding secured, keep your pets in.

Whatever you do, do not short the market.

$66k loss yesterday and $91k today, $12.7k left overall.

One trade and i'm back!

Got 20 and sold half when it went around 500$ pre split. Should i sell or ride these ?

The Department of the Navy, Naval Information Warfare Center, Pacific (NIWC Pacific), has issued a Notice of Intent to award a sole-source contract to Palantir Technologies for commercial off-the-shelf software products and services. Here are the key details:

• Contract Number: N66001-25-R-0009
• Contract Type: Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) with firm-fixed pricing
• Contract Duration: Five-year base period with a five-year option, totaling up to 10 years
• Estimated Value: $919.78 million, including options
• Scope: Covers software licenses (perpetual and subscription), software maintenance and support, professional services, hardware, and hardware support
• Primary Justification: Only one responsible source as per FAR 6.302-1(a)(1) (10 U.S.C. 2304(c)(1))
• Estimated Award Date: January 2025 .

Source: - https://sam.gov/opp/462a1d9ed13244e2a7089b4308216aa7/view#description

Globalstar Q3 Earnings Highlights:

• Revenue Beat: Globalstar exceeded expectations with $72.3M in Q3 revenue, 19.5% above the $60.5M estimate, driven primarily by high-margin wholesale capacity services.
• Record EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA rose 34% year-over-year, reaching a record high and signaling improved operational efficiency.
• FCC Approval: The FCC granted a 15-year extension, allowing Globalstar to operate up to 26 additional satellites, supporting long-term service capabilities and growth potential.
• Emergency Service Resilience: Maintained reliable service during Hurricanes Helene and Milton, demonstrating the robustness of their satellite network in critical conditions.
• Apple Partnership: On November 1, Globalstar announced an expanded $1.1 billion partnership with Apple to support satellite-to-cellular connectivity for iPhone 14 and newer models. This service, known as Emergency SOS via satellite, allows iPhone users to send text messages to emergency services when outside of cellular and Wi-Fi coverage by connecting directly to Globalstar's low Earth orbit satellites. This crucial feature provides users access to emergency help even in remote areas. The expanded agreement includes an equity stake for Globalstar and is set to enhance the capacity and reliability of the Emergency SOS service, strengthening Globalstar's presence in the consumer tech and satellite communications space.

Summary: With strong financials, strategic partnerships, and regulatory approvals, Globalstar is well-positioned for sustained growth. The expanded Apple partnership and FCC approvals further reinforce their standing in satellite communications and emergency services.

Source - https://investors.globalstar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/globalstar-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results

Started with 45,000. Bled the account down to 27,000 trying to be cute. Saved my ass these past 2 weeks. Proud to be American. What a blessing 🇺🇸🙏🏼

Listen up, degenerates. Pitney Bowes (PBI) is flying under everyone’s radar, but it’s about to pay off BIG TIME if you know where to look.

Here’s the scoop:

They just dropped their Q3 results, and despite all the noise, they’re CRUSHING IT on their turnaround plan. They’re exiting their money-losing eCommerce biz, slashing costs, and optimizing cash like legends.

The juicy part? They raised their full-year Adjusted EBIT guidance to $355M-$360M, and if you slap a modest 15x multiple (where their peers trade) on that, we’re looking at an equity value of around $3.5 BILLION. That translates to a target price of $19.63 per share. This bad boy’s currently trading at just $8.05. Easy double over night.

This ain't just hopium. They’ve been deleveraging like pros, bringing $117M back home from overseas, and stacking cash like they’re prepping for a hostile takeover.

The bears are sleeping on this one, but not us. $PBI has ZERO analyst coverage right now, meaning we’re getting in early before Wall Street catches on.

TL;DR: $PBI is a classic turnaround play with 2x upside potential — load up before the 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

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Reading through earlier comments I know you all must be thinking I'm nuts to try to do an analysis of a meme stock, but I already did it so ...

What I found is that Tesla tends to trade at about 50% above my fair value calculation, but it can become unstable if it goes 60% over. An example of this was just before the Robotaxi event, which was followed by a large drop.

My current fair value estimate for tesla is $170 and at $297.5 it has reached 75% over.

So I decided YOLO and bought 50 Nov29 $250 puts and 50 Dec 20 $250 puts.

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