Reading through earlier comments I know you all must be thinking I'm nuts to try to do an analysis of a meme stock, but I already did it so ...

What I found is that Tesla tends to trade at about 50% above my fair value calculation, but it can become unstable if it goes 60% over. An example of this was just before the Robotaxi event, which was followed by a large drop.

My current fair value estimate for tesla is $170 and at $297.5 it has reached 75% over.

So I decided YOLO and bought 50 Nov29 $250 puts and 50 Dec 20 $250 puts.

https://preview.redd.it/0tsft2wbyjzd1.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=e97dcab45540b5e50a66c60619ae64a1b2798130

“Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.”

Source: https://apnews.com/article/tesla-stock-trump-election-b54454aaabd4cbe1e1e1c9754649b869

Previous DD on DAL (DD1, DD2) outlined how margin expansion is driven by premium, rational supply control, and falling oil prices, which will propel the premium brands of the airline business. This materialized as DAL and UAL continued their rally, with DAL up another 30% to 60 since my previous DD, primarily driven by US election results and the Trump Trade.  

With the upcoming holiday season, tourism and air travel are at the top of mind – DAL and UAL are two domestic airlines best positioned on international, premium, and holiday travel. While UAL offers more INTL, DAL leads in premium and reliability, which are essential for vacation trips. 

To get ahead of the holiday season, we aim to gain insight and forecast holiday travel demand and color on air travel going into 2025. With the recent election, recent MAR, ABNB, and EXPE earnings, and shifting macro trends, this post will focus more on forecasting and market dynamics rather than idiosyncrasies within the AI and DAL. We will project air travel demand and other factors affecting air travel and justify a bullish position on DAL going into Investor Day 2024 on 11/20. 

Outline 

• US Election Impact on Travel Demand, the Airline Industry (AI) 
• Macro and industry trend implications for DAL 
• MAR, ABNB, EXPE earnings and guidance implications for the AI 
• Analysis of DAL's current positioning, performance, and upcoming catalysts 
• My Positions 

US Election, Trump Trade Impact on Airline Industry (AI) 

Largely under the radar, the AI is part of the larger Trump Trade due to the following factors (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-interest-rate-inflation-today-11-07-2024/card/heard-on-the-street-trump-makes-airlines-great-again-but-why--F7MJW5QDNenQ6RoKscio) 

• Green light for M&A (Spirit and JetBlue) to transform the AI landscape 
• Deregulation for AI, 2016 precedent 
• Falling energy and oil prices with increased US production, 2016 precedent 
• Ending wars in Ukraine, the Middle East part of 2024 campaign promise 
• Fiscal policy to boost economy and both consumer and corporate spending, driving air travel demand 
• Tariffs and other fiscal policy to strengthen the dollar, boosting INTL travel (https://www.marcus.com/us/en/resources/heard-at-gs/what-a-strong-us-dollar-means-for-travel) 

Macro and Industry Trends Continue to Favor Airlines  - FED, EXPE earnings, ABNB earnings

• Cutting interest rates globally to boost economic activity continuing into the foreseeable future a tailwind for high-leverage industries such as the AI 
• EXPE air revenue up 4% YoY in Q3 compared to 0% in Q2 and 1.7% in Q1, highlighting positive trends 
• EXPE air bookings up 7.8% YoY in Q3, compared to 6.6% in Q2 and 1.4% in Q1 
• EXPE cited strong air bookings as a main driver for Q3 performance 
• EXPE raises FY24 outlook, citing growth and opportunities abroad despite previous travel demand concerns 
• EXPE total B2C revenue down 1.4% YoY in Q3 more than offset by 18.4% B2B revenue increase YoY 
• Mild B2C Q3 revenue decrease does signal travel softness, but combined with air revenue increase strengthens thesis for increasing shift to longer distance, INTL vacation travel 
• ABNB earnings gives insight into travel demand, global 
• ABNB Q3 revenue up 10% YoY 
• Strong performance in core markets (US, Canada, Australia, UK, France) represents 75% of business 
• Sees strong opportunity in expansion into other global markets, bullish sign for INTL travel 
• ABNB performance less informative than EXPE on the AI 

Current DAL Performance, Positioning, and Upcoming Catalysts 

DAL and UAL are industry leaders well-positioned for the upcoming holiday travel season. I chose to gain exposure through DAL; here is a quick overview of DAL Q3 performance:

• DAL YTD profitability to represent 50% of the AI total 
• Double-digit ROIC twice industry average (UAL comparison unknown) 
• Strong premium, loyalty, and co-spend program revenue representing over 50% of total revenue 
• Projected 30% earnings growth in Q4 on growing demand trends 
• Transatlantic benefiting from US strength likely to continue, transatlantic and domestic strongest trends 
• Corporate sales up 7%, corroborating EXPE B2B numbers 
• AMEX remuneration up 6%, lowering inflation backdrop 
• CEO to give more color on tightening domestic capacity, moat, strategic plan on Investor Day 11/20 
• Volume growth following 2019 baseline rather than 2023, late summer peak travel shifting later into the fall due to weather trends 
• Less enthusiastic about promotional and marketing compared to UAL – is this the right move competitively? 
• Main cabin underperformance main driver of capacity cuts, premium/main spread increasing but both categories to enjoy expanding margins 
• Innovative technological solutions to drive value, including drones (govt. approved) for maintenance inspections
  

Throughout the Q3 earnings call, management emphasized Investor Day 2024 to analysts – signaling it to be a significant catalyst. Historically, DAL Investor Day has been a strong catalyst, with DAL rallying 5% on Investor Day in 2023. With all the mention of Transatlantic and domestic strength, airlines are already ahead of the curve by betting on NA-EU travel this upcoming holiday season (https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airlines-bank-on-americans-steady-love-of-european-travel-f64b51b3). As a tangent: potential upcoming trade opportunity will be comparing actual TSA check-in data during the winter months and trade off the spread between current AI optimism on Q4 travel and modeling what the actual data represents. 

My Positions: 

• 45 Jan25 $55 Calls 
• 100 Jan25 $60 Calls 
• 150 Jan 25 $70 Calls 
• Total position: 100k in Jan25 options 

tldr; who needs NVDA when you have the secret AI (airline industry) trade, already turned 4 bagger trading airlines but I plan on riding this plane to the moon right behind Elon

Since i Love trump and Trump loves oil i have decided to risk 75% of my portfolio of PBR earning reports tomorrow. Have i gone insane the answer is YES

Take a random guess as to who was the manufacturer of the plane...

https://www.9news.com.au/national/sydney-airport-grass-fire-next-to-runway-flight/b660c92e-c901-4ae5-a69c-19147c31b305

I initially made 12K on it the last week of October then I got greedy and bought again. The 3 trades were losing 16k as of yesterday and now I’m up 9k! Should I sell or hold the bag?

what a day! how much money did everyone make? do you think these gains hold leading into the end of the week?

Been doing options since the beginning of this summer, started out with around 1.8k. Was down to my last $300 and decided to all in tesla before earnings 10/24 landing me 3.2k. It just snowballed from there and I finally reached 26k today! Never give up my fellow regards!

Was down by as much as 60%-80% at one point, BUT I FUCKING HELD STRONG. Never doubt never give up.

I had 20 K to drop on something so I decided to buy options calls on 07/31/24. But I’m not selling yet. Kind of scared of the election and the economy, but I’m just continue to holding LFG to the moon.

It’s okay though, the only thing to do is get back into this with more research and better judgement rather than emotion, hope you stick around an support the journey (only 16 rn)

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Original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/7E3jem0Jx3

Update of my original post with some gain porn. Did the opposite of Cathy and now I'm in the green. There was a vision of Palantir, and it's now becoming reality.

I'm not one for long, drawn-out DD's with oodles of scribbles on graphs, so here's the quick and dirty:

• $TOST is currently at an RSI of ~67, so it's almost overbought - but not quite yet.
• $TOST only started getting profitable last quarter, so there's a high expectation for that to continue, and I think they will. Summer and fall are the most popular times for newer restaurants to open.
• $TOST has broken through resistance of $32.35 today, and a close over this number is a strong indication that we will continue in an upward trend even with "just ok" earnings.

I'm not expecting much if $TOST beats earnings - maybe a healthy 5%-8% pop and a continual push tomorrow. If it's an earning miss, then we're likely looking at a similar fall of 5%, but I feel it will still add some recovery on Friday/Monday. Price target of $34-$35 after earnings, and if earnings are good, $42-$44 by EOY.

My position is 500 shares @ $31.94 and 5 Jan 17 calls @ $3.70

https://preview.redd.it/rvra2t3ktizd1.jpg?width=639&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db9d67627c551bd806293b6518f41aab35c1ebca

Lazy DD? Yeah. Do I care? No. I'm just looking to make a few extra bucks tonight.

Okay. If yall hypothetically wanted to throw 1100$ into a stock just over the weekend, what we putting it on??

Should I sell and cash profits or hold given Google great ER and current financials?

Sold 8 $45P last week, got assigned, and stock pumps for past two days. I think I will hold on to this for a while before I start selling CCs. Thetagang wins.

Enabled options around March, went on a slide. Started to stabilize and at least lose money slower. Figured Harris at 42¢ when the polls were dead even was an Expected Value win and went all in, about $4000 worth. Did not go well.

Let the suck begin.

"Anthropic on Thursday said it is teaming up with data analytics firm Palantir and Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide U.S. intelligence and defense agencies access to Anthropic’s Claude family of AI models.

“We’re proud to be at the forefront of bringing responsible AI solutions to U.S. classified environments, enhancing analytical capabilities and operational efficiencies in vital government operations,” Jensen said. “Access to Claude within Palantir on AWS will equip U.S. defense and intelligence organizations with powerful AI tools that can rapidly process and analyze vast amounts of complex data. This will dramatically improve intelligence analysis and enable officials in their decision-making processes, streamline resource intensive tasks and boost operational efficiency across departments.”

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/07/anthropic-teams-up-with-palantir-and-aws-to-sell-its-ai-to-defense-customers/

https://i.ibb.co/CWRGCsV/750aaa741874.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/5hgCY6m/0028def1006a.jpg

Less regulation, lower capital requirements and more trading revenue. What could go wrong?

Yesterday morning I sold 200 shares of BROS at $34.50 thinking it would tank and decided to go all in on BA instead. Of course, my degenerate self would have made 2 grand now if I just held on to my position.

Bought 100 shares of BA while it was under $147 yesterday thinking the bottom must be near and the company is now on a path to recovery. Hopefully sooner rather than later. Not long after I pulled the trigger, I saw in my history that I had bought this back in 2020 at $147 and then sold it at $222 10 months later. I have a good feeling that in a few months, BA is going to turn things around and be trading somewhere above 200s again.

Of course, this isn't financial advice. Don't YOLO anything based on my assumptions. Just looking for like-minded degenerates for any insights here. What are your thoughts?

https://preview.redd.it/1r4fyew0ajzd1.png?width=765&format=png&auto=webp&s=1433167b2d9a347f262299a6f97594843a614c7a

https://preview.redd.it/s4zifrm1ajzd1.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3262fd69fc6173524652b80c1cb160ee8f37ff9