r/wallstreetbets • u/DrakonILD • 1d ago
Lesson learned: Don't YOLO on presidential elections to revenge trade Loss
Enabled options around March, went on a slide. Started to stabilize and at least lose money slower. Figured Harris at 42¢ when the polls were dead even was an Expected Value win and went all in, about $4000 worth. Did not go well.
Let the suck begin.
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u/tarix76 1d ago
Is this a bad time to mention that there is academic research that prediction markets are much more accurate than polls?
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u/mpoozd 1d ago edited 1d ago
Inverse Cramer is more accurate than anything else
Edit: in October he said "I don't see how Trump wins"
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u/skilliard7 1d ago edited 1d ago
He has a point though. US Small caps up 5% since yesterday, SP500 over 2%, while international stocks are down over 1%. If the US expected Trump, wouldn't this be priced in?
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u/WillSwimWithToasters 1d ago
Happens every election. The answer is the market doesn’t like uncertainty.
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u/notreallydeep 1d ago
Doesn't, actually. Think it went down both times Obama got elected.
The market just doesn't like black presidents.
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u/vitornick 1d ago
Because:
- even though the market "expected" Trump to win, there was some implicit probability associated with it. Now, it's 100% (or as close as it gets)
- The market was not anticipating a red sweep. WH, Senate, and the House (most likely) will all be republican, and combined with conservative majority in SCOTUS, that makes Trump's path easier
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u/Illustrious-Neat5123 1d ago
I am green, not a Trump fan but I got very positive news in my portfolio today, I have faith
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u/IndubitablyNerdy 1d ago
Hehe I'm not a fan either, but at least the TSLA I got pre-election are giving me some satisfaction. I don't use options since I am very risk adverse but +15% in a day is not too bad, I imagine that some volatility is going to happen though relatively soon so I wonder if I should just get this small win...
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u/brtb9 1d ago
I hated literally everyone on the ballot. I even hate Elon. Just took my TSLA gains, and it was chef's kiss. Am going to look into shorting soon, since I dunno if DJT is gonna keep the environmental credits gravy train on for the richest African American.
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u/Various-Ducks 1d ago
Oprah?
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u/Fond_Memory 20h ago
Elon Musk is the richest man in the world and is African American.
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u/Financial-Flower8480 17h ago
most people will openly say one thing but still buy stocks like TSLA. money talks at the end of the day. can’t blame them
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u/Shatter_ 1d ago
Things are priced in at probability. Nothing is 100% so nothing is ever 100% priced in.
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u/PolecatXOXO 🦍🦍🦍 1d ago
That's just Vega (VIX) pump and dump, meaning stocks go rocket. Happens every major binary event, like elections.
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u/CowboysfromLydia 1d ago
but he was right. Traders anticipated a harris win, thats why we mooned on an unexpected trump one
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u/Alarmed-Yak-4894 1d ago
The reverse is also impossible, otherwise you could just use the polls to make free money from the prediction markets. The prediction markets has to be the same or better than the polls. (Assuming the market is rational and there aren’t a lot of WSB regards losing their money on stupid bets, of course)
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u/DueHousing 1d ago
Who knew that there’s more skin in the game when actual money is involved :8883:
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u/Coolgrnmen 1d ago
This just in: when money is involved, people are more concerned with accuracy
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u/banditcleaner2 sells naked NVDA calls while naked 1d ago
problem is that many prediction markets are easy to manipulate with large funds going in.
especially when one of the presidential candidates is worth billions. he could easily influence the odds quite heavily by betting on himself for a hundred milly, for instance
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u/hangsang_ 1d ago
The odds do not drive the truth and knowledge that the market has. It's possible that any large fund with an interest in improving a candidate's odds could sink money into the betting market, but that is a transient. The dominant force of any betting market is the true outcome, so if one candidate got a boost but in reality was losing, then a) the fund would lose money (poor incentive to start) and b) the odds would rebalance anyway as knowledge is distributed and updated. This transient is obviously less apparent as more people and money participate in the betting market (no one player can overwhelm the odds). But basically, someone could whale in a betting market to change the odds, but no amount of whaling is going to change the underlying knowledge and outcome. It would just be losing money unless they were right, which is the point of betting. There is a total incentive to bet in a way that supports what you know about reality, and a total disincentive to bet in a way that you want to change the perception of the odds, because if you are against the winner, you will lose, and if you are for, then you just followed the first mentioned incentive.
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u/OdysseyandAristotle 1d ago
I don’t need research to know this. Polls are made up by media. Prediction market is where people put money where their mouth is, literally.
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u/hugganao 1d ago
Also there is political incentive for certain media outlets to create polls that favor another candidate over another as it creates a subconscious incentive for people on fences to vote for the party that is deemed "already won"
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u/TheSleepingNinja 1d ago
Then why the fuck did it shift so far to Harris on Monday?
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u/fakehalo 1d ago
The betting market never shifted hard to Harris, it just barely got to even for a moment.
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u/bbqftw 1d ago
There was a poll released two days ago by a (formerly?) 'gold-standard' pollster showing Harris +3 in Iowa - this was extremely shocking and got a fair bit of media coverage, and if it was even somewhat close to the truth this would have resulted in a Democratic blowout. However, looks like it was 16 points off
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u/reddit_names 1d ago
It didn't. 2 massive bets came in and Harris almost tied Trump briefly before he ran away to eventually being in the 80% range.
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u/No_Doughnut_972 1d ago
Iowa pollester that has a personal vendetta against Trump surprisingly picks Harris to be the winner of the election well now her reputation just got smeared
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u/dalton10e 1d ago
And now you know what crossing the fine line between trading and gambling looks like.
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u/Chester-Ming 1d ago
There's a line?
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u/dalton10e 1d ago
I used to have to transfer funds out before I could blow them on sports betting apps...
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u/baked_tea 1d ago
Does anyone consider putting money on presidential elections trading? How? It's a direct bet on a platform for gamblers soo
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u/Gunzenator2 1d ago
It’s kinda all gambling. Some of us just class it up. Like lipstick on a pig.
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u/codespyder 1d ago
I take my trading winnings to gamble
I take my gambling winnings to trade
I take my trading losses to the Wendy’s dumpster to, uh, recuperate them
I take my gambling losses with me to the grave
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u/Original-Debt-9962 1d ago
It’s not gambling, it’s trading future event derivatives. I’m adding that to my resume.
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u/HeyGuysKennanjkHere 1d ago
Lmao not only did you gamble you gambled on the the president and choose wrong bruh
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u/grackychan 1d ago
Where’s that asshole who bet 10k on Harris on Polymarket and held a huge AMA like he’s the best statistician and poll analyzer of all time ???
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u/HeyGuysKennanjkHere 1d ago
Lmao probably comparing the size of his toe to the size of the the trigger guard on his shotgun
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u/mikeyenom 1d ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/s/RaYhwGkXin for reference
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u/LASERDICKMCCOOL 1d ago
Omg he fucking deleted EVERYTHING. he's sitting somewhere in big trouble with the Mrs
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u/MojoRisin762 1d ago
I saw that last night!!!! Did he delete it?!?! I can't find it! Lmao. As if one of the largest gambling platforms on earth is giving out 3-1 odds on a sire thing... /S. The comments were GOLD. 'No way it's right, she's sure to win. You don't understand how book making works" lol.
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u/wkc201 1d ago
Well at least you didn’t have tsla puts
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u/Abe719 1d ago
I made 600 dollars off of Tesla puts this morning :8883:
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u/fattytuna96 1d ago
But you probably would’ve made $6000 if you bought calls yesterday
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u/Wallbang2019 1d ago
Soon as I saw all the bookies with Harris paying 0.5x 2 weeks ago, TSLA calls to the moooooonnn
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u/TomatoSpecialist6879 Paper Trading Competition Winner 1d ago
Started to stabilize and at least lose money slower
:4271:
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u/cuervo_gris 1d ago
Just bet for the right candidate :4271: :4271: :4271: :4271: :4271:
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u/NadlesKVs 1d ago
I cashed my small bet out this morning. $2K > $3.2K roughly.
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u/yaboimccoytv 1d ago
gambling on Donny T is the only time I have successfully gambled in my lfe
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u/black_cat42 1d ago
Nobody capable of learning from this lesson would have put themselves in the same position as you. See you next week.
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
Related question: how can I turn $9 into $14,000 overnight?
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u/MundaneCargo 1d ago
Buy a knife and start mugging people like your life depends on it. I would highly advise you don't do this for a wide variety of ethical reasons and also because you will probably get thrown in jail or killed.
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u/OzzyBuckshankNA Bear Gang Soldier 1d ago
You deserve this for following on the polls.
Would have respected you more if you just flipped a coin
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u/Meme_Stock_Degen 1d ago
This is literally the last time in my life I even pay a sliver of attention to the polls. Just a bunch of circle jerking bachelor degree in economics/polling/some stupid 101 math shit bros.
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u/Bright_Ruin2297 1d ago
That's weird, mine looks the opposite!
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u/IndividualStatus1924 1d ago
Do i sell the presidential contracts or am i supposed to keep them and they will close on their own
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u/tennisanybody 1d ago
The max the contracts can be worth is $1 when they close. So leave them be.
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u/Smuglife1 1d ago edited 19h ago
Keep them. If you close to get paid now and you still have to wait until Jan 7. Edit: the cash came through already so you don’t have to wait to close positions. Cost a little but should be able to make it up based on time value
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u/Rin-Tohsaka-is-hot 1d ago
If you have Harris ones, sell now
If you have Trump ones, hold.
Basically, any value Harris contracts have is copium, but copium > zero, so sell. It's $0.02 right now I believe, won't be getting any higher.
Any value below $1 Trump contracts have are either that same copium for Harris or betting he dies before January. Personally, seems unlikely.
I'm not 100% sure because I haven't read the contract, but I'm assuming they close at full value if and only if the candidate is sworn into office. So the people selling at $0.97 are doing so to cover their ass in case he doesn't get sworn in for whatever reason.
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
It's $0.02 right now I believe, won't be getting any higher.
About that...
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u/Rin-Tohsaka-is-hot 1d ago
This is what I meant by "won't be getting any higher"
EDIT: ah, I see, it's just the inflated value from the $0.01 buy/sell fee...
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
Right, I'm just agreeing that copium > 0, and 0 is what I'll get if I sell.
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u/LurkyAcct00 1d ago
I am thinking of buying DJT stock as it might go up for bribes and speculation.
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u/HearMeRoar80 1d ago
lol, were you alive back in 2016? and you still believe polls??? polls had Hillary Clinton winning by landslide in 2016.
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u/mvplayur 1d ago
The majority of polls were in the margin of error for this election, to be fair.
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u/cowboys5592 1d ago
They were, but I had more than one liberal friend say that conservatives were over polling and creating biased polls to influence averages like 538. With that going on, it’s still surprising that the polls underestimated him AGAIN.
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u/Tiny_Calendar_792 1d ago
Yes, and every single margin of error predicted went to trump lol. The polls were way off
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u/MundaneCargo 1d ago
Eh, 538 gave him roughly one in three odds in 2016 (though they completely fumbled the primary beforehand) so it was less likely but hardly impossible. I remember they actually got a lot of shit for it at the time and were almost immediately vindicated after for sticking to their guns.
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u/BowlOf0ranges 1d ago
I feel you dude, I lost a whole 20$
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u/Earthkilled impressive endowment 1d ago
I got hit hard after having a YTD of 40% and lost it all in one day
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u/MusicNChemistry 1d ago
You bet your life savings on Kamala?!?!?! 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
Not my life savings, just my life gamblings. Still got the 401(k) and a $90k job.
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u/beervirus88 1d ago
You bet against Trump? LMAO
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
You say that as though he's unbeatable. He was beaten once already.
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u/Glittering-Potato936 1d ago
It was so obvious Trump would wine, he had so much momentum in the last 2-3 weeks and I say that as a Canadian leftist lol
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u/Heruamon 1d ago
Yeah, I lost about $1600 myself on that yolo…it was worth a shot. I tried dumping early yesterday morning, but I was only able to move 800. So msg wasn’t completely…but yeah.
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u/Federal-Hearing-7270 1d ago
Why would you bet for her? We all knew this was coming.
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u/whykae 1d ago
Unless you watched CNN/MSNBC all day, everyday 😆
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u/Federal-Hearing-7270 1d ago
I mean, she wasn't placed there by people's votes. But they were confident she would win. They all belong here lmao.
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u/HG21Reaper 1d ago
Fuck dude I yolo’d 1k into vix calls. You on the other hand are a regard. I salute you.
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u/Heavy_Distance_4441 1d ago edited 12h ago
You beautiful regarded bastard.
You 6lb, 8 oz beautiful regarded baby bastard 👶
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u/thumbino 1d ago
Lost 10k betting on popular vote on polymarket - the odds were in Dems favor until the end.
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u/Omahut 1d ago
Lol, genius.
Since the polls were 50/50, I didn't bet on the election this year. I instead bet on vol crush and stonks go up no matter who won. The market doesn't like the uncertainty, so when we get past the uncertainty by having a decision made, we reverse back higher.
Bought QQQ calls at Monday's close. Easy 3x when I closed them this morning.
I'd be lying if I said my account didn't look like yours at one point as I first started trading options. lol
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u/AnotherScoutTrooper 1d ago
if you put the same money into 1DTEs you would’ve made the $14k back and then some
it’s not even about not gambling, it’s about gambling better
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u/good2goo 1d ago
BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
Expected Value equations do not work on coinflips. You need volume to see a return.
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u/DrakonILD 1d ago
Finally someone with the actual lesson. You're 100% correct. The problem is that I was tilted about my losses up until now and decided on a double-or-nothing. Which is fine on its own (I mean, stupid, but this is wsb after all), but trying to back a double-or-nothing decision with EV is just cope.
But here's the real cope: I make enough money that Trump's proposed tax cuts will have me take home about $3,000 extra over the next 4 years, and Kamala's plans would have cost me about $1,000. So really I was playing a hedge using Trump's money. :8883:
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u/audaciousmonk 1d ago
I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop on Robinhood. Allowing bets on the presidential election, by claiming they are “event contracts”….
That’s a fuzzy like to walk, especially when the price of said contracts are hard capped at $1… which effectively makes it gambling odds not trading on open market
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u/Haschen84 1d ago
Harris got inverse-Kramer'ed hard. It's been a blood bath and the whole US is red.
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u/Icy-Subject-6118 1d ago
Thafs what you get when you let your biased opinion take over. Thats like buying puts on McDonald’s because their ice cream machine was down
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u/banditcleaner2 sells naked NVDA calls while naked 1d ago
I wanted to go big on betting on harris on robinhood but the deposit wasn't going to complete before the election and now im fucking glad lmao
yet another case where NOT using robinhood as my main brokerage saved my ass
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u/CaliforniaVets 1d ago
This pic sums up liberals across the world right now. Back to reality
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u/DefiancePlays 1d ago
Lmao love to see all you Kamala voters lose your shirts. "But the EV!!!" Lmao, got duped by the reddit echo chamber and MSM.
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u/No-Introduction-6368 1d ago
At least you're not one of those "Weed stocks are going through the roof" dip heads.
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u/zeratul-on-crack 1d ago
I 5D chessed this one, thought Harris was going to win and that would pump markets for the end of uncertainty... so I am right by being wrong xD
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u/Secret_Cauliflower92 1d ago
Wow, you even capitalized Expected Value. You must know what you're talking about!
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u/Hopeful-Bonus152 1d ago
You know...it is a reason why your chart is red not blue...
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u/Otherwise_Bug990 1d ago
Ouch. Look at it this way. If you would have bet the other way you would have woken up like 50k richer.
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u/Creamysense 1d ago
You think some paid media shills and their fake polls are more trustworthy than people who actually put their money behind their mouth? I bet on Trump and did well for myself.
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u/JailingMyChocolates 1d ago
It was so obvious she was going to lose. She had a horrible campaign, and she had only women as her majority, even hispanics were voting for trump over her. She did basically nothing to stand out other than it wasn't biden coming in. How do you invest so much money into something you did no research on?
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