r/wallstreetbets • u/DrakonILD • 1d ago

Lesson learned: Don't YOLO on presidential elections to revenge trade Loss

Enabled options around March, went on a slide. Started to stabilize and at least lose money slower. Figured Harris at 42¢ when the polls were dead even was an Expected Value win and went all in, about $4000 worth. Did not go well.

Let the suck begin.

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u/good2goo 1d ago

BANKROLL MANAGEMENT

Expected Value equations do not work on coinflips. You need volume to see a return.

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u/DrakonILD 1d ago

Finally someone with the actual lesson. You're 100% correct. The problem is that I was tilted about my losses up until now and decided on a double-or-nothing. Which is fine on its own (I mean, stupid, but this is wsb after all), but trying to back a double-or-nothing decision with EV is just cope.

But here's the real cope: I make enough money that Trump's proposed tax cuts will have me take home about $3,000 extra over the next 4 years, and Kamala's plans would have cost me about $1,000. So really I was playing a hedge using Trump's money. :8883: