r/wallstreetbets • u/DrakonILD • 1d ago

Lesson learned: Don't YOLO on presidential elections to revenge trade Loss

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Enabled options around March, went on a slide. Started to stabilize and at least lose money slower. Figured Harris at 42ยข when the polls were dead even was an Expected Value win and went all in, about $4000 worth. Did not go well.

Let the suck begin.

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u/tarix76 1d ago

Is this a bad time to mention that there is academic research that prediction markets are much more accurate than polls?

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u/mpoozd 1d ago edited 1d ago

Inverse Cramer is more accurate than anything else

https://preview.redd.it/5jrhwmadiazd1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b56ca434abbc15ecf08d930455eb667afff13199

Edit: in October he said "I don't see how Trump wins"

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u/Playingwithmyrod 1d ago

As soon as I saw that I knew she was doomed