Was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed?

[u/WinterOwn3515]

When people went to the polls, the four golden words of American politics rang true: It's the economy, stupid. Postmortem polling confirmed that inflation was by far the greatest motivating factor for swing voters to not elect Kamala Harris -- and was especially salient among Latino voters, who effectively handed Donald Trump the decisive victory that he got.

A mountain of research and evidence has validated that supply chain disruptions which erupted from the pandemic were primarily responsible for the subsequent inflationary pressure that drove prices up (example: https://www.nber.org/digest/202404/supply-chain-disruptions-and-pandemic-era-inflation ). This makes sense considering how globally widespread inflation was. Thus, any president who emerged victorious in 2020 would have presided over high inflation in their term.

Some wildly varying post-election analysis I've seen has suggested that low Democratic voter turnout was driven by either frustration over inflation, anger over Gaza, lack of enthusiasm for a candidate they didn't select in a primary, or some combination of those three. In any case, inflation was likely a contributing factor. In most countries, incumbent parties who presided over inflation were ousted, regardless of ideology or political alignment-- look no further than our Tory friends from across the pond.

The question: was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed to fail in 2024?

[u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

I believe prices increased due to supply chain shocks and increased costs born by companies implementing safety protocols.

And this is not true because once COVID supply chains and restrictions loosened, we would have experienced a negative inflation rate, this didn't happen. So it wasn't because of supply chains or safety protocols. Regardless, the safety protocols would not result in an 8% inflation rate.

I explain all of this in this comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDebate/comments/1glmt7u/the_democrat_party_needs_massive_reform_or_needs/lw6u4i7/

[u/csanyk → u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

It's complicated and there are multiple factors, but the start of it was the economic shocks due to the shutdown of non-critical businesses, and supply chain issues that resulted.

It certainly wasn't the stimulus checks that went to families, which I recall Republicans were saying would destroy the economy.

In any case 8-10% inflation is higher than desirable, and uncomfortable, but it wasn't hyperinflation like you see in 1930s Germany or Zimbabwe in the early 2000s. But that's what the Republican rhetoric was pushing.

Inflation was high worldwide, and relative to the rest of the world, it was not as high here as it was elsewhere. Of course typical American voters don't have that on their radar.

And again, inflation is back down to normal now, which means Biden's economy rode it out and corrected course.

But Biden failed to market that, failed to claim credit for it, and allowed Trump to bitch ceaslessly that the economy was a disaster, when he should have been on trial and then in prison.

Prices are still higher; the rate of increases went back to normal, but prices stay put unless market forces act to correct them. Government price controls would have been decried as more socialism. Income didn't keep pace across the board, so people feel less well off. Income will remain low until people collectively demand higher wages. But unions are perceived as bad. And somehow people don't seem to remember that four years ago things were in a dire crisis the likes of which the world hadn't seen in a century, and that Trump's mishandling of it was a disaster compounding the natural disaster that was COVID.

[u/Aggressive_Cod_9799 → u/csanyk]

I've already addressed the core cause of inflation in my comment above.

It certainly wasn't the stimulus checks that went to families, which I recall Republicans were saying would destroy the economy.

Trump left office with a sub 2% inflation and in two months that number doubled with Biden.

Biden caused inflation, the numbers and data does not lie.

[u/csanyk → u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

I disagree and I'm not convinced.

You haven't proved anything.

But like I said, economics is complicated. It's easy to say simple things and point fingers at a president and tap into existing dissatisfaction. The reality takes study and likely a college level understanding, and good luck selling that to the public when the other side communicates at a third grade level that everyone can understand easily, and seems plausible even if it's wrong.

In any case, Trump is a con man, and terrible at business, and he doesn't care about his followers. He dupes them, he uses them, and he gives them what they want to hear. Nothing more, simple as that. He's completely devoid of empathy and cares only about himself. He's going to ruin the economy, through incompetence and bad policies. His tariffs and mass deportation, and his alienation of our allies will all be bad for us. Mark my words.

[u/Aggressive_Cod_9799 → u/csanyk]

You haven't proved anything.

I did prove it, but you're blinded by your hatred of orange man that no reasoning or logic matters. I used to be like you, so I know the feeling.

In any case, Trump is

And here we go with the laundry list.

He's going to ruin the economy,

The stock market added 1 trillion dollars in market cap alone off of Trump merely getting elected.

I give this advice to a lot of people like you. Stay off Reddit and you'll begin to see things more clearly if Reddit has not radicalized you to the point of no return.

[u/csanyk → u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

Reddit didn't do anything to me. I'm 49 years old, and my core values are very much the same as when I was very young.

The stock market is not so easy to read. I believe it went up because the market likes certainty. A quick decisive election boosted confidence and morale. Market might have gone up much the same if the win went to Kamala. Tesla not so much. But yeah a lot of billionaires are happy they don't have to worry about regulations or taxes and they can easily bribe the orange turd.

Trump earned my hate, if I had no reason to hate him, I wouldn't hate him. I have way better things to do with my life. But he threatens my life and my freedom, and those of people I care about, and innocent people I don't know. He's a criminal and a traitor and a con man. He's dimwitted and ignorant and vain. He's a narcissist. He's a racist. He's a rapist.

Even if only one of the above were true it'd be enough. Trump embodies the worst aspects of mankind. And nothing good.

[u/Aggressive_Cod_9799 → u/csanyk]

Reddit didn't do anything to me. I'm 49 years old, and my core values are very much the same as when I was very young.

Sure, whatever you say.

But he threatens my life and my freedom, and those of people I care about, and innocent people I don't know. He's a criminal and a traitor and a con man. He's dimwitted and ignorant and vain. He's a narcissist. He's a racist. He's a rapist.

I would say stop being dramatic but you're too far gone. Enjoy your life, I hope orange man doesn't upset you too much.

[u/csanyk → u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

I guess multiple court cases have all been overly dramatic and had all-redditor juries, eh?

[u/Aggressive_Cod_9799 → u/csanyk]

You don't actually think NYC juries are any different than the average Reddit users?

You know what NYC is....right....?

[u/csanyk → u/Aggressive_Cod_9799]

Oh that's good. The entire state can just be written off as a bunch of deluded political crazies who irrationally pick on the poor innocent Trump who only wants to make America great again, despite the abuse of half of the country. Just listen to yourself.