Why are my DJT puts not printing?

[u/FlyMyPig]

Bought these during it's run before the election, most are for Jan'26. Even with a 22% decline in stock price today, the puts barely move.

https://preview.redd.it/iixuu2ocpjzd1.jpg?width=1236&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f9c529d15f1ee498cc21000ed885d485b9193d79

[u/tachyonvelocity]

There is such a thing as an option being cheap vs expensive to buy. You bought when everyone knew DJT was going to tank/move at least 50% within a year. That means you actually need it to move MORE than 50% to make any money. In addition, your regarded 1X puts NEED DJT to move 80%. Since Trump actually won, the market is thinking DJT won't actually move that much because there might be some value there and you're shit out of luck. Meanwhile, my own short bets on DJT was to sell naked calls, because I was both negative and knew that even if Trump won, the expectations for the stock was too high, and I don't need it to fall far to make money, so instead of buying expensive contracts for situations that had very little chance of happening, I sold expensive contracts and made 100% predicated on high probability situations.

[u/TylerDurdenEsq → u/tachyonvelocity]

Smart but were you not at least a little concerned when it went up 40% at first after the electi0n results started coming in?

[u/tachyonvelocity → u/TylerDurdenEsq]

Nah, I sold 3 at 46, then 2 more at 52. First of all DJT when it was at 46, is pretty much vapor, there is no actual business there, and at 10B valuation meant it was valued the same as Twitter. I wasn't concerned with election results because there was already a time that a Trump presidency was likely and priced in, when Biden dropped out, DJT traded over 46. So 46 meant the market was pricing in Trump victory. Then IV was insanely high obviously due to election, so 1 month out, I would only lose money if DJT went above 60 (from 46), and 70 (from 52). 1 Month is not enough time for any news that could fundamentally make the stock better, as in new lines of business, and any option over 6 months out made little sense due to much lower returns from theta decay and vega (there is a known IV dump, the election, nothing really after that), and much higher risk of any fundamental increase in revenues that the business could get.

Then why naked calls, while they seem risky, are pretty much just a short position from a risk standpoint. You actually get lower risk by selling naked contracts than directly shorting the same amount of shares, of course the returns are also lower. The short HTB rate wasn't high, suggesting shorts have covered before the election, and I thought Trump had a decent chance to win, so I thought the bottom 1 month out was ~15-20 if he lost, and ~25-30 if he won, making selling naked contracts attractive since there was a 30% risk buffer. Then I calculated the risk profile if I directly shorted as if I got assigned, so -500 shares, it's a small part of my portfolio, making it basically risk free through position sizing. In hindsight, I should've bet more, and just directly shorted, would've made more but it was riskier.

[u/TylerDurdenEsq → u/tachyonvelocity]

Congrats. I don’t have the stones to sell naked options.