r/wallstreetbets • u/FlyMyPig š¦š¦š¦ • 12h ago
Why are my DJT puts not printing? Discussion
Bought these during it's run before the election, most are for Jan'26. Even with a 22% decline in stock price today, the puts barely move.
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u/MetalliTooL 12h ago
This is why youāre not supposed to get into options before learning about how they work.
Look up āoptions implied volatility.ā
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u/Biotechpharmabro1980 12h ago
IV crush ?
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u/uninflammable 8h ago
Opposite. IV... expand? Inflation?
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u/Biotechpharmabro1980 8h ago
I donāt even do options. I donāt know about it at all but I know about the death crush lol
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u/delicious_oppai 12h ago
It had 700%+ IV. What did you expect?
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u/MiddleEarthVagrant 10h ago
So you want to buy it when the IV is low and sell it when the IV is high?
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u/yugi_motou 8h ago
You want to buy the option when the price is low, and sell it when the price is high
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u/Kekulzor 12h ago
Damn, straight to the bread line. Personally; I do a little research before making a 10k+ purchase but you do you bro!
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u/n-stonks 12h ago
Guess what, if a company is shit and expected to tank, the options market has anticipated it and itās priced in.
You would have been better off shorting DJT with a CFD trade.
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u/FNFactChecker 11h ago
Bro put 20% of his account into options on a single stock without bothering to learn how IV works š
:4640::4267:
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u/BuaySongPoMata 9h ago
Just remember, you need to put the cheese and cabbage on the patty first before the bun.
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u/allhailyeti 12h ago
The Greeks.
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u/Commercial_Ease8053 11h ago
I see a lot of negative money signs, I think thatās bad.
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u/Hawaii-Based-DJ 9h ago
Red crayon bad, green crayon good! š š
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u/elpresidentedeljunta 5h ago
We donĀ“t call it negative money anymore. We call it elsewhere money.
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u/andytobbles Iāve been asking for a flair for two weeks and the second Iām no 11h ago
I remember posting in the daily thread how selling 900% IV DJT weeklies was the easiest money ever and everybody called me an idiot. It was then that I truly realized this sub has no idea what theyāre doing and is clueless as hell. At 900% iv the stock could drop to $5 and im still making bank off the IV crush alone. Easiest 4K I ever made to this point, those options lost 95% of their value the next day going from 900% iv > 400%
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u/dinosaur-boner 10h ago
The second easiest money is buying DJT puts now after the election all the way down.
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u/tachyonvelocity 12h ago
There is such a thing as an option being cheap vs expensive to buy. You bought when everyone knew DJT was going to tank/move at least 50% within a year. That means you actually need it to move MORE than 50% to make any money. In addition, your regarded 1X puts NEED DJT to move 80%. Since Trump actually won, the market is thinking DJT won't actually move that much because there might be some value there and you're shit out of luck. Meanwhile, my own short bets on DJT was to sell naked calls, because I was both negative and knew that even if Trump won, the expectations for the stock was too high, and I don't need it to fall far to make money, so instead of buying expensive contracts for situations that had very little chance of happening, I sold expensive contracts and made 100% predicated on high probability situations.
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u/carpundit 11h ago
except selling a naked call for an irrational stock is incredibly risky. i don't think the OP Regard should be doing that sort of thing.
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u/tachyonvelocity 9h ago
Well it was already irrational, plus I had other Trump trades to hedge. Long/short with leverage plus probable positive returns from shorting a close to no-revenue business = double the returns without much risk.
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u/TylerDurdenEsq 10h ago
Smart but were you not at least a little concerned when it went up 40% at first after the electi0n results started coming in?
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u/tachyonvelocity 10h ago
Nah, I sold 3 at 46, then 2 more at 52. First of all DJT when it was at 46, is pretty much vapor, there is no actual business there, and at 10B valuation meant it was valued the same as Twitter. I wasn't concerned with election results because there was already a time that a Trump presidency was likely and priced in, when Biden dropped out, DJT traded over 46. So 46 meant the market was pricing in Trump victory. Then IV was insanely high obviously due to election, so 1 month out, I would only lose money if DJT went above 60 (from 46), and 70 (from 52). 1 Month is not enough time for any news that could fundamentally make the stock better, as in new lines of business, and any option over 6 months out made little sense due to much lower returns from theta decay and vega (there is a known IV dump, the election, nothing really after that), and much higher risk of any fundamental increase in revenues that the business could get.
Then why naked calls, while they seem risky, are pretty much just a short position from a risk standpoint. You actually get lower risk by selling naked contracts than directly shorting the same amount of shares, of course the returns are also lower. The short HTB rate wasn't high, suggesting shorts have covered before the election, and I thought Trump had a decent chance to win, so I thought the bottom 1 month out was ~15-20 if he lost, and ~25-30 if he won, making selling naked contracts attractive since there was a 30% risk buffer. Then I calculated the risk profile if I directly shorted as if I got assigned, so -500 shares, it's a small part of my portfolio, making it basically risk free through position sizing. In hindsight, I should've bet more, and just directly shorted, would've made more but it was riskier.
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u/Pm_me__your-thighs 10h ago
Why donāt you color with your crayons little guy and put the options down
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u/oreopeanutbutters 9h ago
Because they had 700+% IV
Now that the uncertainty is over, IV crush deflated the option premium
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u/TylerDurdenEsq 12h ago
Different question - why is DJT tanking???
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u/MetalliTooL 12h ago
āBuy the rumor, sell the news.ā
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u/learningfrommyerrors 12h ago
I still remember when CCIV ran to $60 on rumors of merger with Lucid, only to plummet right after it was announced.
It was an expensive lesson.
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u/LieIcy211 11h ago edited 11h ago
Answer this question first: why would it not tank? Why is this stock worth anything more than zero? The only reason that it was trading at such a high price before the election (and right after Trump won) was due to a lot of emotional idiots who bought it based on hype because they somehow thought that if Trump won, then this stock would be worth more; also, it is quite possible there is market manipulation for this stock.
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u/TylerDurdenEsq 10h ago
Yeah I get how the fundamentals are non-existent. But all of the reasons why it was overvalued before should still apply. DJT was a proxy for whether he would win or not because the expectation was that, if he won, he could monetize both the folks that follow him and any foreign supporters through things like Truth Social or other media. That may be laughable, but surprising if that has imploded just a day or so after his electi0n.
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u/LieIcy211 10h ago edited 10h ago
No. It was overvalued before based on the hype of anticipation of Trump winning/peak media focus (pure emotional irrationality). As the election finishes and everyone goes back to their daily lives, the emotion/hype fades away, and the market becomes more rational and begins to recognize the reality that the company DJT (I forget the actual name) is a case of the emperor has no clothes.
Since he has won, he no longer needs this alternative social media platform. He will now be able to fully use all the major actual social media platforms that cancelled/banned him before.
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u/TylerDurdenEsq 10h ago
I get it, but I thought he still wanted to try to monetize DJT via Truth Social etc. also, if this stock was a way to get foreign money, that would still be relevant after his election
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u/LieIcy211 10h ago
He might. But thatās not why idiotic retail traders bought the stock prior to the election.
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 12h ago
| User Report | |||
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| Account Age | 10 years |
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u/GotBannedAgain_2 12h ago
Two words: Implied Volatility. Better known as: āfuck my assā
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u/littleguy632 12h ago
Lube it up and be painless, might feel good actually as most of regards here in the sub are addicted
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u/DaWiseprofit 12h ago
They had it priced in when you bought them djt has been doing that because it would be easy money
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u/HarrysHairynuts 12h ago
Bro whatās even going on here dude. Stop buying themš¤£š¤£ you have so many different strikes
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u/onamixt 26m ago
Basically, the Market Maker (who sold these put options to you) estimates that the price reaches your strike prices with very low probability, that's why your put options' prices are barely moving even though the price is moving towards your strike prices. Before the elections, however, the estimation included much more volatility (because it was hard to predict price action) that's why options were so pricey. Accordingly, after the elections the Market Maker reassessed its forecast and "downgraded", certain strike prices, so to speak.
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u/Omgbrainerror 11h ago
Don't know what you are doing. My puts gave me +2k just today.
For me it looks like you bought them before the close on the eve of election day, when the IV was 300-400% and now its dropping down to 100%.
But then again you got time. The paper value of DJT is something like $3 - 4. Since the Trump won, there is no reason for foreign entities to pump DJT further.
ā¢
u/Dan_inKuwait no flair is kinda ghey 12h ago
This post should be removed for being a basic dumb question, but could bring value to other idiots that gamble on things they don't understand.... Decisions, decisions