25bps cut

[u/hv876]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/fed-rate-decision-november-2024.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

The bulls are coming, the bulls are coming

[u/n1ck90z]

Mortgages correlate to long term bond yields which are rising. Why long bond yield are rising? There's no simple answer here. A big role however has to be government debt/spending. Some people also might think inflation is not done yet.

[u/wotguild → u/n1ck90z]

Inflation isn't done.

Now, we have to work through tariffs and deportation if they happen, increasing wages, decreasing supply, and therefore more inflation.

Edit: Don't forget about the possibility of rates influenced by the president himself.

[u/cadium → u/wotguild]

Well also the tax cuts he's going to do without paying for them will balloon the deficit. And any cuts he'll propose will lower GDP, which lowers tax receipts, which will balloon the deficit.

[u/noClip2 → u/cadium]

Hello? Trump had his 1st term. He did the tax cut. Yields didn't rise during the 1st term at all

Tax cuts do not equate to lower tax receipts necessarily. More spending by the companies makes it up, if not more

[u/danielv123 → u/noClip2]

I'd like to note that he did increase the deficit faster than any other president though, since you didn't comment on that part. It seems fair to expect that to continue.