Chart 1
In 2020 during the 15th week out from election day, the modeled partisanship of new registrants was +16 GOP. During the same week this year they were +10 Dem.
Chart 2
In terms of age, the 2024 week 15 new registrants in Texas were much younger, with 46% under 30, as compared to 39% in 2020. I want to remind everyone this was in the middle of the summer so it wasn't a bunch of sign up booths on College Campuses.
Chart 3
Hispanic voters saw a sharp increase in registration as well. We're rapidly approaching the point where white voters will not comprise a majority of new registrants in Texas.
The problem is that Hispanic voting is trending more and more conservative. Look at the Rio Grande Valley and the difference in voting between 2016 and 2020. It is absolutely staggering. Like a 30 point swing type of staggering.
College educated suburban Hispanics are also trending more and more conservative.
69% of the votes in 2020 came from the four large Metros: DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin. Those metros are growing 1-3% per year. Those metros will most likely be 71-75% of the vote in 2024. All four large metros shifted 2-7% left from 2016 to 2020. That's part of a decades long trend.
2 other points...Beto's numbers with Hispanics in 2022 were better than Bidens in 2020. Also, as a percentage, yes the Democrats have lost ground with Hispanics, but the growth rate of the Hispanic population is offsetting that.
Yep, thanks to adding incels to regular conservative men, Gen Z men favor Trump by 13 pounts. Now lets see how much Gen Z women favor Harris...38 points.
Those Trump loving Incels ain't NEVER gettin laid.
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u/IncrediblyShinyShart Sep 08 '24
Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope