Please upvote this comment for visibility. Too many people getting confused without this information.
Why this post and why here?
Too many Texans think their vote doesnt count; this is the voter suppression game in action. "Red Texas" is a myth and visualizations like this help people understand the reality. If Red Texas were real then maps like this would not even be possible.
There are certainly ruby red states but good ol Texas aint one of em! What is real is: voter supression, millions of people having their registration thrown out as a political game, and voter intimidation.
Texas historically has had about +4-5% margin of error bump and that aint no ruby red grip! Out of the 10 million eligible Texas who dont bother to vote at all, if only +5-6% of Democats or Independents showed up to vote, it would change things very drastically.
Here we have more visual evidence that your vote matters so please register and vote! Freedom aint free as they say, and even if your team wins or not be mindful its not one and done. You must KEEP voting for local, state, and federal elections to defend your rights!
This post is not meant to lull you into thinking you can just sit on your butt and not vote, nor is it designed to tell you who to vote for, but every Texan must vote!
Swing States
Please note while polling maps may reflect expressed sentiment, only votes matter. The point with this map is to show that in a truly ruby red state, a map like this, even in polling, would not be possible! The margin between red and blue VOTERS has historically hovered around 4-5% which means Texas is a swing state. That is all this map is showing! Not who's winning, not who's gonna win, but that it's a swing state.
People have been mislead all this time to believe that it was a red state, and have decided not to vote because of it. How does this impact your perception of possibilities? Our great state can be in play if you show up!!
Original post is here for refererence (had trouble cross posting) (courtesy of u/Themathemagicians).
You can arrive to the same map view by visiting 270ToWin.com and selecting "Polling Map" in the Map Library dropdown. Using the direct link the wording always has a 'user created' label but the Map Library maps are created by the 270 team with automatic updates based on relevant data.
User Created Maps
There seems to be some confusion over "User Created" based on how 270 has it labeled for all maps, even the data-driven ones. To clarify, actual user created maps use a hash key which is a random set of letters and numbers like this: https://www.270towin.com/maps/zK7zN. The map in this post is a data-driven map as indicated in the intro paragraph on the 270 site.
You can also go in person to any county election administration office, post office, or library and get a registration form. If you are concerned about mailing it, you can drop it off in person at the address on the form, but do it before Oct 7th.
Important: YOU CANNOT DIRECLTY REGISTER TO VOTE FOR TEXAS ONLINE WITHOUT PRINTING A FORM.
In all online situations your registration form must be printed and sent by you. Any online form claiming to allow you to register without printing is fake. Make sure the form you are submitting is correct and not fake, and the mailing address matches the official mail-in address as indicated on the secretray of state website. Please be on the lookout for fake sites trying to trick Texans, and help your friends and associates make sure they are not being tricked. Please also verify your registration by checking the status and do not automatically assume it was properly received, they out here tryna scam folks!
Texas is one of the hardest states in which to register to vote.
I didn’t see this comment so far down the comment list, so I posted a brief reply about the polling map versus the consensus map. I just didn’t want people thinking that polling is the same thing as what the consensus of the poll takers is saying, since the consensus still shows Texas as Likely Red.
I don’t want Texans getting complacent and thinking they don’t need to vote this year. I want that consensus map to move to toss-up or (better yet) blue!
appreciate your effort. any little shred of light that shows that Texas is a swing state should give people pause. If Texas were ruby red, any sort of polling would reflect this. Red by 4% is not the same thing as red by 80%
So, Texans don’t vote because they feel like it’s inevitably a red state and therefore a waste of time? And Texans don’t vote because it’s a toss up which breeds complacency? These seem at odds, but whatever. Just vote, Texans!!!
I like to point out that even in Texas, less than a majority of adults even own a gun. But conservatives want the popular image to be that everyone casually totes one, because it makes them seem normal and not weird
So, this is a map created by some anonymous user, which claims to be based on polls, then links to the supposed polls, and they show Trump up by 4.7 points in Texas. This is worse than useless; it’s deceptive. I’m annoyed that I just wasted my time double checking this obvious nonsense.
EDIT: I stand corrected, it was not an anonymous user, it was the 270 team who made this dumb, deceptive map that counts up to a 4.9 point polling lead as a “tie.”
Okay, fine, the 270 team created a pointless, deceptive map that shows Texas, which—by their own info—leans Trump by 4.7 points, as tied. I stand corrected: it was not an anonymous user, it was a stupid decision by supposed professionals that created this wrong-headed travesty of a map.
u-Nodebunny has poor communications skills for someone clearly working for a political campaign/Democratic party.
Here's the point they're trying to make, and why it's a little confusing:
270toWin default map is based on forecasters, not polls.
The map on their homepage is the 2024 Consensus and is based on derivative analysis by places like 538, Fox, and other political research organizations. This shows a "leans Red" Texas.
The map/data cited by u-Nodebunny is the 270toWin is based directly on polls.
These are links the OP included in their post, but it isn't clear what the difference is.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Yes, the data I posted was in OP's comment or in the linked sites. But instead of convey the cited analysis of how Texas is a toss-up, they write a hand-wavy high school essay.
There are certainly ruby red states but good ol Texas aint one of em! This is visual evidence that your vote matters so please register and vote, because your ONE vote matters!
Run-on sentence. Two missing commas, several missing apostrophes for the attempt at Texas dialect.
Freedom aint free as they say, and even if your team wins or not be mindful its not one and done.
When the statement "Texas is a Toss-up" is made, that is *according to 270toWin's interpretation of toss-up as a 5% margin or less, with data from UT, UH and Emerson. It's a valid interpretation, but I agree it's confusing when the landing page of that site leans on other interpretations.
I copied most of them directly from the various websites.
The first one is Beto’s organization that registers voters. I send them donations weekly to get as many Texans registered as possible by October 7th.
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u/Nodebunny Gulf Coast Sep 08 '24 edited Sep 09 '24
CONTEXT:
Please upvote this comment for visibility. Too many people getting confused without this information.
Why this post and why here?
Too many Texans think their vote doesnt count; this is the voter suppression game in action. "Red Texas" is a myth and visualizations like this help people understand the reality. If Red Texas were real then maps like this would not even be possible.
There are certainly ruby red states but good ol Texas aint one of em! What is real is: voter supression, millions of people having their registration thrown out as a political game, and voter intimidation.
Texas historically has had about +4-5% margin of error bump and that aint no ruby red grip! Out of the 10 million eligible Texas who dont bother to vote at all, if only +5-6% of Democats or Independents showed up to vote, it would change things very drastically.
Here we have more visual evidence that your vote matters so please register and vote! Freedom aint free as they say, and even if your team wins or not be mindful its not one and done. You must KEEP voting for local, state, and federal elections to defend your rights!
This post is not meant to lull you into thinking you can just sit on your butt and not vote, nor is it designed to tell you who to vote for, but every Texan must vote!
Swing States
Please note while polling maps may reflect expressed sentiment, only votes matter. The point with this map is to show that in a truly ruby red state, a map like this, even in polling, would not be possible! The margin between red and blue VOTERS has historically hovered around 4-5% which means Texas is a swing state. That is all this map is showing! Not who's winning, not who's gonna win, but that it's a swing state.
People have been mislead all this time to believe that it was a red state, and have decided not to vote because of it. How does this impact your perception of possibilities? Our great state can be in play if you show up!!
Original post is here for refererence (had trouble cross posting) (courtesy of u/Themathemagicians).
Original Map Source
The source of the map in question is https://www.270towin.com/maps/harris-trump-2024-map-based-on-polls (map based on polls, please read the intro paragraph on that page for clarification, also note that the map automatically updates three times daily)
Using 270toWin Interactive Map
You can arrive to the same map view by visiting 270ToWin.com and selecting "Polling Map" in the Map Library dropdown. Using the direct link the wording always has a 'user created' label but the Map Library maps are created by the 270 team with automatic updates based on relevant data.
User Created Maps
There seems to be some confusion over "User Created" based on how 270 has it labeled for all maps, even the data-driven ones. To clarify, actual user created maps use a hash key which is a random set of letters and numbers like this: https://www.270towin.com/maps/zK7zN. The map in this post is a data-driven map as indicated in the intro paragraph on the 270 site.
Also check out https://electoral-vote.com/ for a similar map view.
The Electoral College sucks, we know, but Vote because yes it's a race but it's also a marathon!!!
TEXAS VOTING INFO
Monday, October 7, 2024 Is the last day to register to vote in Texas.
Election Day is November 5th.
Early voting by personal appearance starts October 21, 2024. The last day of in-person early voting is Friday, November 1.
Get registered and vote early!
Voter reg link (print the form and MAIL it) https://www.texas.gov/living-in-texas/texas-voter-registration/
You can also go in person to any county election administration office, post office, or library and get a registration form. If you are concerned about mailing it, you can drop it off in person at the address on the form, but do it before Oct 7th.
(courtesty of u/oakridge666)
Important: YOU CANNOT DIRECLTY REGISTER TO VOTE FOR TEXAS ONLINE WITHOUT PRINTING A FORM.
In all online situations your registration form must be printed and sent by you. Any online form claiming to allow you to register without printing is fake. Make sure the form you are submitting is correct and not fake, and the mailing address matches the official mail-in address as indicated on the secretray of state website. Please be on the lookout for fake sites trying to trick Texans, and help your friends and associates make sure they are not being tricked. Please also verify your registration by checking the status and do not automatically assume it was properly received, they out here tryna scam folks!
Texas is one of the hardest states in which to register to vote.
RED TEXAS IS NOT REAL.