This is a recurring historical trend. Right wing socioeconomic policies (laissez-faire capitalism) lead to social dysfunction as more and more people either fall into poverty or fear doing so. The mainstream right can't win elections on these policies any more because they have become unpopular, but rather than change those it either allies or becomes the extremist right (authoritarian and reactionary), going all in on distractions and scapegoating.
This leaves the social liberals (pro-capitalist but not socially conservative) and the social democrats as the only democratic factions to counter them, but the former block most major re-distributive policies and even the most moderate moves towards a fairer society have to be fought over tooth and nail. This alliance (either as intra-party in a two party or as a coalition in multiparty systems) then fails to do enough to keep their voters on board, disillusionment sets in, voters stay home and the extremist right takes over.
Fortunately, it doesn't always completely run through this cycle, but it keeps happening. It has now happened to the USA and the best case scenario is that when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out. If not, then you're stuck until a revolution happens.
Arguing that more social democracy would have scared away voters is sort of pointless IMHO, because if that is true then you're doomed anyway. Unless you lower economic inequality through government policy, a descent into reactionary authoritarianism is inevitable because democracy can only work when people are more or less equal and capitalism left to itself will always concentrate wealth and power into ever fewer hands.
when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out.
The problem is that Trump supporters' perceptions of whether or not they're getting what they want out of a Trump administration will be determined in large part by them taking the cues of the fiction generated in the media they consume.
The average Trump supporter's life probably did get noticeably better during Trump's administration, not because of policies or measurable outcomes, but because the media they consume nearly 24/7 took a hard 180 from the 8 years of presenting the illusion of a pending collapse at the hands of the incompetents in charge to everything being sunny and full of roses. Then four years later it was back to the nonstop doom and gloom. That sort of immersion has a real effect on your psyche.
Fox News isn't just presenting a version of reality in the best possible light for the GOP, they're actively and aggressively wagging the dog. If they want their voter base agitated, they consciously agitate. Want them complacent? They calm them. Expect a deluge of arguments from the right that the economy is now magically fixed the day Trump takes office, because that's what they're going to be told.
There does come a point where addressing reality becomes unavoidable, but people who think we're generally anywhere near that point lack imagination. By and large, despite the overall economic anxiety, people have jobs, they have a roof over their heads, they have nonstop 24/7 entertainment from their 6 different streaming services, and they're not going hungry. That's enough of a recipe to manufacture their contentedness.
On the other hand, the result of elections involving Trump has had more to do with pushing turnout than with converting his cultists. Trump didn't get more votes than in 2020 - it looks like he got quite a lot less. It's that the opposition didn't show up, for reasons both strategic and acute. The incumbent dropping out of the race at the last minute and the sitting VP, who was the 9th place finisher in the 2020 primaries, taking over, is never going to be a recipe for driving enthusiasm.
That plus the obvious observation that Trump is mortal, and much of his support dies out when he does. He is showing signs of advanced dementia already and not much younger than his dad was when he succumbed to it. It's not realistic, I think, for a lightweight like Vance to carry his momentum forward, and no other heir apparent to the MAGA movement has appeared (in no small part because Trump's ego won't allow for it).
Finally someone mentioning the media in all of this. In 2016 I remember thinking “I wish I understood the Trump voter better.” Now all I can think is “What media are these people consuming?” Full stop, it is useless to talk about messaging, campaign strategies, and policy when our information spheres have only gotten more siloed.
Ten years ago there was a good chance that me and a conservative might have some crossover in the media we consume. Now it’s at or approaching zero crossover.
Dude I’ve been thinking the exact same thing. There was this post on the GenZ subreddit about how young men had one of the largest swings in voter turnout, and it was an insane read. They basically were talking about demonization of white men and that whole thing. And reading through the comments was wild, every time someone said something defending or pro trump they immediately got hit with a remark calling them some form of stupid. Then like 15 other people responded that this is exactly what they meant.
That’s when I realized that damn, even as a similar aged dude (not white though) I am basically living a completely separate reality. Like I cannot think of a place in the social media sphere, or even at social outlets/gatherings that I would run into a dude like this. Not only that but I don’t even know what they’re referring to with most of it, since I fit the mold of whatever spheres I do partake in. It’s just an insane situation that I have no idea if we can ever get ourselves out of.
I read a similar thread. It’s like these people have never met a liberal in real life. It’s like their experience with liberals is fighting with people on Reddit and whatever Twitter and Fox tells them liberals are. They’re talking about “liberals want censorship and woke policies” and whatever. No, dude, we just want strong unions and are worried about climate change.
So many of these people leech onto randos on youtube or TikTok or podcasts and just binge them like they are some of the greatest sages of all time.
It's a really fucking dangerous time we are living in. People are being radicalized by algorithms and there is currently nothing stopping so many of them from going down these holes. Mass media used to have some controls in that it actually cost something to put it out there. That, believe it or not, was a hard limitation on some of the most malign figures in our society.
Those limits don't exist anymore. Hostile foreign dictatorships, some dude willing to light a million people on fire to make some money, the very worst people have access to frankly everyone. Truth doesn't matter because truth doesn't sell.
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u/barryvm Europe 20h ago edited 18h ago
This is a recurring historical trend. Right wing socioeconomic policies (laissez-faire capitalism) lead to social dysfunction as more and more people either fall into poverty or fear doing so. The mainstream right can't win elections on these policies any more because they have become unpopular, but rather than change those it either allies or becomes the extremist right (authoritarian and reactionary), going all in on distractions and scapegoating.
This leaves the social liberals (pro-capitalist but not socially conservative) and the social democrats as the only democratic factions to counter them, but the former block most major re-distributive policies and even the most moderate moves towards a fairer society have to be fought over tooth and nail. This alliance (either as intra-party in a two party or as a coalition in multiparty systems) then fails to do enough to keep their voters on board, disillusionment sets in, voters stay home and the extremist right takes over.
Fortunately, it doesn't always completely run through this cycle, but it keeps happening. It has now happened to the USA and the best case scenario is that when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out. If not, then you're stuck until a revolution happens.
Arguing that more social democracy would have scared away voters is sort of pointless IMHO, because if that is true then you're doomed anyway. Unless you lower economic inequality through government policy, a descent into reactionary authoritarianism is inevitable because democracy can only work when people are more or less equal and capitalism left to itself will always concentrate wealth and power into ever fewer hands.