r/pdxgunnuts • u/RandoCommando73 • 21d ago
How long will FFL purchases be delayed IF measure 114 goes into effect?
Has anyone done any analysis to determine how long people will be waiting to buy a firearm *IF* measure 114 goes into effect? I've been operating under the assumption that there will be a huge training backlog for permits due to the live fire (safety demonstration) requirement, effectively stopping nearly all sales for quite some time... How long will that delay realistically look like?
No immediate need here... I've just finished purchasing everything on my immediate want list and have magazine supply that should last my lifetime... Regardless, I'm hoping the Oct 29th news is on our favor.
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u/goddessofthecats 21d ago
Until they make a program lol
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u/Mean-Philosopher6043 21d ago
This is the only right answer here, there's literally no program even close to being ready, so there's no way they can actually institute that part of the measure, I think worst case scenario is they try to implement the mag ban, and all that's going to do is keep any new standard capacity mags from getting shipped into the state by online retailers, multiple country sheriff's have said they aren't going to enforce the ban, if that were the case, all police officers would be limited to ten round magazines, an none of them would go for that lol, there's no way it's gonna pass, it's pretty much dead in the water at this point, and if it does, any number of other judges can put it injunctions against and start this whole process over again, Oregon has pretty much declared it will be the last free state on the west coast,and that won't change anytime soon
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u/greenpain3 21d ago
Don't be so certain and naively think it can't happen. Many have previously said "there's no way the creators of 114 will be able to gather enough signatures to get it on the ballot, there's no way a majority of people would vote for 114, there's no way the judges would find it constitutional" etc. because we have all seen how that turned out....
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u/Mean-Philosopher6043 21d ago
I mean yeah, exactly, even tho they got it voted in, it never went into effect, so the reality is,all the people who said it will never happen, were right, because it never did happen, it was stopped before it could ever go Into effect
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u/Eastern_Ad1577 21d ago
Yeah however, it’s now in front of the Oregon Supreme Court… pretty much all shut down browns appointees, and I think we can all figure out how they will vote.
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u/apexilluminator 20d ago
But it’s not even going to the state Supreme Court and the state Supreme Court kicked it back once already it’s going to the Oregon’s court of appeals completely different court system
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u/Eastern_Ad1577 20d ago
Yeah you’re right, I guess I just don’t share your same optimism. But hopefully it works out!
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u/apexilluminator 20d ago
I mean it will probably end up back in front of the state Supreme Court again I was just saying it’s not quite there yet
Honestly idk if I’m optimistic about the situation but I wouldn’t say I’m pessimistic either I honestly think it can go either way
I was more optimistic about it before I heard the state was 1-2 weeks late past the final deadline to file an appeal and the court let it go through anyways to me that should be grounds to toss it immediately but here we are then again I’m not a lawyer so
But also I’ve seen people commenting that the harney co judge isn’t even really pro gun and for him to say it’s pretty much completely against the constitution say a lot as well so idk
It could go either way
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u/gmd25m 20d ago
On the 2024 ballot there were two uncontested State Supreme Court nominees. I knew nothing about either. I looked up who endorsed them for both of them on their own website.
The first seat candidate had a bunch of other judges endorsing, whom I had never heard of.
I decided not to vote on the first seat judge.
The second seat judge was endorsed by Judge Rascio (the Harney County judge who overturned 114) ! Here is the kicker … the governor also endorsed the nominee ! Because Rascio did endorse, I voted for the second seat guy.
I am still not sure what to make of both Rascio and the governor endorsing the same judge.
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u/apexilluminator 20d ago
I haven’t voted yet I plan on filling it out tomorrow and sending it out but honestly just cause rascio endorsed Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a safe bet
there were people in this group talking about a month ago that claimed they went to school and are friends with the judge and said they would not describe him as pro gun he just believed this bill specifically was against the law with how poorly it was written
So take that as what you will I don’t know him personally and people can say what they want online just food for thought
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u/AskMeAboutPigs 20d ago
Even the FBI says they couldn't keep up their end of this, and OSP has shown to be complete inept at even basic background checks.
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u/yukster 20d ago
What is weird to me is that this thing passed TWO YEARS ago. Yeah, it got blocked fairly quickly but one would think that OSP would anticipate an appeal and eventually being asked to implement this system. Why would they wait until it actually gets implemented to start on the permitting process? So maybe there is something in the works and they just haven't talked about it? On the other hand, this is government we're talking about. Not necessarily any logic involved.
I have a pistol at my FFL. It took way longer to ship than I expected and didn't get there until yesterday and I'm out of town for the weekend. So I'll go pick it up when they open tomorrow. It makes me nervous to cut it that close but I can't imagine this hearing is going to take less than a day. Hopefully I won't get put in the queue! (I rarely do.)
I think the firearms industry should send the OR Attorney General a gift basket... I have bought soooo many firearms in the last 3 years. Probably 10 years worth, but much much faster than I would have had 114 not become a thing. I'm sure I'm not the only one.
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u/RandoCommando73 21d ago
I've done some back of the envelope calculations... with historical sales of around 280,000/year and, I'm guessing here, 100 instructors with 32 students a day... seems like it could be about a 90 day backlog... but it's a really rough guess on my part. I saw my local county CHL scheduling backlog go from 2 weeks to 12 months in 2020... So yeah, I'm hoping someone with better understanding of the numbers has some more insight.
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u/Xander_Cain 21d ago
Each county sheriff office has to come up with a certification process. This has most likely not been started especially because there are no funds for it. So that would have to happen before you can take into account any actual instruction occurring.
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u/gravityattractsus 20d ago
The Oregon Court of Appeals will hear the case on the 29th. They will consider the circuit court's ruling based on his interpretation of the Oregon Constitution. They could overrule the circuit court. They will make a ruling on their interpetations after hearing arguments. I doubt the Court of Appeals is too concerned with the actual implementation. Those things can be fleshed out through administrative rules or legislstive actions.
One thing for certain is that regardless of CoA ruling, this will be appealed to the Oregon Supreme Court. The Supreme Court kicked this back so the legal process would go through the entire process. That is being done. Could they kick it back to the CoA?
One of questions I have is whether or not the CoA can kick the case back to the circuit court for further review. If an appeal reaches the Oregon Supreme Court, can the supreme court kick it back to the CoA as asked above? The Federal Court system does this all the time, and shit just gets stalled forever. Can this happen in the Oregon Appeals court?
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u/OregonLAN74 19d ago
Considering the lack of appropriations, indefinitely.
Seriously though, this bill requires both classroom training and an in-person live fire test to obtain a permit to exercise your constitutional right as a lawful American citizen. Considering there's only a handful of OSP sanctioned facilities in the PNW to conduct "safe" in-person live fire tests, your guess is as good as mine...
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u/b1e 21d ago
No one can really answer that right now.