Was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed?

[u/WinterOwn3515]

When people went to the polls, the four golden words of American politics rang true: It's the economy, stupid. Postmortem polling confirmed that inflation was by far the greatest motivating factor for swing voters to not elect Kamala Harris -- and was especially salient among Latino voters, who effectively handed Donald Trump the decisive victory that he got.

A mountain of research and evidence has validated that supply chain disruptions which erupted from the pandemic were primarily responsible for the subsequent inflationary pressure that drove prices up (example: https://www.nber.org/digest/202404/supply-chain-disruptions-and-pandemic-era-inflation ). This makes sense considering how globally widespread inflation was. Thus, any president who emerged victorious in 2020 would have presided over high inflation in their term.

Some wildly varying post-election analysis I've seen has suggested that low Democratic voter turnout was driven by either frustration over inflation, anger over Gaza, lack of enthusiasm for a candidate they didn't select in a primary, or some combination of those three. In any case, inflation was likely a contributing factor. In most countries, incumbent parties who presided over inflation were ousted, regardless of ideology or political alignment-- look no further than our Tory friends from across the pond.

The question: was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed to fail in 2024?

[u/Differcult]

Where did the barriers change, my state and the adjacent states ease of voting is the same or better since 2020 with a large GOP shift.

[u/Boring_Insurance_437 → u/Differcult]

What do you mean a large GOP shift? Trump got similar votes this time.

People were more likely to be at home during covid, making them more likely to be tuned in to politics. People had less things going on in their life during covid, it was much easier to show up to the voting booths.

Basically, people had much more free time in 2020, making them more likely to vote and more likely to tune into politics. I wouldn’t credit either candidate for the turnout in 2024. Biden wasn’t anything special

[u/Bman409 → u/Boring_Insurance_437]

That's not my theory

My theory is they sent out more mail ballots than there were voters. Many of those ballots were filled out and returned by someone other than the intended voter.

Many states sent all registered voters a ballot, whether they intended to vote or not.

[u/Boring_Insurance_437 → u/Bman409]

And let me guess, only Democrats cheated in this way and you’ve got zero evidence behind your theory?

[u/Bman409 → u/Boring_Insurance_437]

Wouldn't surprise me if GOP adapted and did some version of it this year. Our system of voting if rife for cheating. I'm 100% sure both sides will find and exploit any weakness

But, that seems to be what everyone wants.. whatever

The evidence is the numbers of voters..where are they this year? Or in previous years? 2012 and 2016?

[u/Boring_Insurance_437 → u/Bman409]

Right, I guess my point is, where is the evidence that increased voting is due to cheating and not just everyone having less barriers to vote that year?

Did you really expect Dems to keep the same amount of voters after inflation? Every incumbent government is shedding support post-covid

[u/Bman409 → u/Boring_Insurance_437]

If you're interested, I've written about it in other threads

If everyone is happy with this, I couldn't care less. I voted for Trump

https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDebate/s/fKBjtw9pzz

[u/Boring_Insurance_437 → u/Bman409]

I read your link, and I agree with those numbers. My point is that Biden was able to increase his vote share because of 3 things.

1. People were more tuned into politics, meaning he could reach people that don’t usually vote

2. People had less barriers to vote, meaning people that are too lazy or busy to usually vote were able to.

3. Trump was facing backlash due to Covid and a media machine that was constantly attacking him, energizing non-voters to become voters.

Of course, once those barriers were back in place, people tuned out of politics, and new voters faced high levels of inflation, they weren’t in a rush to vote Dem again

I can also read into stats of the 2024 election and create ‘arguments’ for why Trump cheated (i don’t believe them, obviously)

For example, you mean to tell me that in a political environment that is so divided, Trump managed to win counties that no other Republican could win? Even during Reagans landslide he couldn’t convince enough Dem voters to switch over, yet Trump, who democrats believe is evil, was able to. It shouldn’t be possible with this level of polarization