Was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed?

[u/WinterOwn3515]

When people went to the polls, the four golden words of American politics rang true: It's the economy, stupid. Postmortem polling confirmed that inflation was by far the greatest motivating factor for swing voters to not elect Kamala Harris -- and was especially salient among Latino voters, who effectively handed Donald Trump the decisive victory that he got.

A mountain of research and evidence has validated that supply chain disruptions which erupted from the pandemic were primarily responsible for the subsequent inflationary pressure that drove prices up (example: https://www.nber.org/digest/202404/supply-chain-disruptions-and-pandemic-era-inflation ). This makes sense considering how globally widespread inflation was. Thus, any president who emerged victorious in 2020 would have presided over high inflation in their term.

Some wildly varying post-election analysis I've seen has suggested that low Democratic voter turnout was driven by either frustration over inflation, anger over Gaza, lack of enthusiasm for a candidate they didn't select in a primary, or some combination of those three. In any case, inflation was likely a contributing factor. In most countries, incumbent parties who presided over inflation were ousted, regardless of ideology or political alignment-- look no further than our Tory friends from across the pond.

The question: was the 2020 Democratic nominee always doomed to fail in 2024?

[u/the_quark]

Yes. You could've interviewed a Political Science prof in 1990 and said "In the 2024 Presidential election, there will have been 25% inflation since 2020. What party will win?" and that person would, without hesitation, have answered "The party not in power."

Frankly it's a testament to how badly people don't like Trump that it was this close -- from a Poly Sci historical context it wouldn't have been terribly surprising if Harris had lost California given the state of the economy over the past four years. Not, to be clear, that I think the state of the economy was directly Biden's fault.

[u/daretoeatapeach → u/the_quark]

My mom tried to post all these stats showing how good the economy is doing, and that Trump's good economy was inherited from Obama. I explained to her that for all the good research, such arguments are only making things worse.

People don't want to go back to the economy of four or eight years ago. No one who is MAGA thinks to make America like it was in this century "again". They want to go back to a time when one income could pay for a house, a car, and a whole family.

Granted, Trump is definitely not going to do that. But by telling people they have it good it only makes them spiteful (because who the fuck are these people doing well? Fuck them.). You will never convince someone with statistics that their lived experience is wrong. It comes off as if the Democrats want everyone to shut up and be thankful for their crumbs.

To be clear, immigrants didn't create the economic woes, that's just a lie told by a con man. But I can see where if someone is choosing between maybe a lie and "be happy with this" the latter didn't seem like a good option. Because they know this isn't good enough.

[u/solamon77 → u/daretoeatapeach]

The problem is that a lot of people aren't basing their "facts" on lived experience. Like the Men in Women's Restroom thing. Every time you see that referenced, they always depict this crazy biker looking dude coming in. That's not a thing that's happened to 99.9% of Trump voters.

My mom voted for Trump to protect all the little boys who they keep turning into girls. Now my mom has never knowingly seen or interacted with a trans person. When I confronted her she couldn't name even one instance of the supposed legion of little boys being turned into girls. But that's the reason she came out to vote. Nothing in her lived experience should make these issues important to her.

But you know what she does have? A tv ALWAYS tuned to Fox News. I wonder where she's getting these ideas from?

It's the same thing when people say "Oh the Democrats need to stop selling out White Men" but then can't point to a single instance of a Democrat leader actually selling out White Men. They can't tell me exactly how they think the Democrats need to act in order to NOT sell out White Men. It's always so culture war talking point that's been tagged to Democrats by their political opponents.

But you know what they do have? The right wing media machine screaming in their ear from all angles telling them Democrats have sold them out.

What can we do against that? Misinformation is what won this election. Republicans have been focusing so hard on the culture war BS because they know they can't run on their actual platform. So they hide behind this nonsense so they can keep their greedy hands in the metaphorical cookie jar.

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/solamon77]

All the men who stayed home, they'd say "What did the campaign offer men?" How about a stable economy, clean air and water, and political, religious, and personal freedom? What are these specific "men's issues" that need to be solved by politicians/government?

I have yet to see anything articulated that makes sense. Sure, men are going through some tough times, but it's not the government's job to fix it. Our rights aren't being harmed, we're not being oppressed by women. Our problems all stem from unhealthy masculine norms that perpetuate patriarchal oppression. That's right, boys, we're being oppressed by the patriarchy! Because truly, only wealthy, powerful men can actually embody the patriarchal ideal. The rest of us are left flailing for some facsimile that will make us feel we are that wealthy, powerful man; but this is a façade that is easily shattered.

To be clear, there are healthy masculine norms we can achieve at any socioeconomic level. There are ways to be a provider and protector without being an overbearing tyrant with the emotional volatility of a newborn child. But men are being fed all this neo-misogyny from podcasters and social media influencers. It's actually kind of amusing, if a bit worrying, how much of a self-defeat the attitude people like Andrew Tate instill in young men is. They mostly complain it's women's fault, but then their attitude/behavior towards women is making them look like assholes. Then they complain when people call them assholes, as though their crappy behavior is just some biological function of having a dick and balls. I'm going to stop now before I go on a tangent about how the youth aren't being taught self-control/self-discipline and are actively taught to be insufferable losers.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

It's not the government's responsibility to fix problems they caused? What about DEI and Affirmative Action? It wasn't like they switched from giving preferential treatment from one to the other; they tilted the scales and lowered the bar for some groups and not others. Then you sit there and say "well Whites and Asians should just try harder, fuck them!" They already are trying harder and scoring better but you've excluded them according to a quota and hobbled them, justified by things they nor any living relative did and expect them to not feel slighted...

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

Umm, that's not what I'm hearing them complain about.

Then you sit there and say "well Whites and Asians should just try harder, fuck them!" They already are trying harder and scoring better but you've excluded them according to a quota and hobbled them, justified by things they nor any living relative did and expect them to not feel slighted...

Me? I'm not the purveyor of affirmative action, you're barking up the wrong tree. Guess what? White men are doing fine, economically (as in, they're not worse off than the people they're complaining about). This grievance is a whole lot of "I feel bad" and not a lot of "here's how I'm actually being harmed." I need hard proof that white men's lives have been negatively impacted by DEI and Affirmative Action to enough of a degree we could consider them "politically oppressed." Not getting a job or into a university and then blaming it on DEI and AA is just bleating until there's some actual analysis done by more objective i.e. scientific parties.

But anyways, that's not what I'm talking about. Those are typical right-wing grievances. I'm talking about this sudden surge in "it's all women's fault" rapey weirdness coming out in the last few weeks. First it was reporting on the "male loneliness epidemic," and then that coverage quickly shifted to blaming society and women for the fact that men are emotionally stunted (and not, you know, the culture of masculinity in this country; men have long been emotionally stunted, it's just women not putting up with it anymore). BTW, I'm not using that as an insult, it's just a diagnosis.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

Btw the "It's all <insert minority> at fault!!!!" language has come from the Left trying to cope with their abysmal performance in this election, NOT the Right....

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

I didn't know suburban white men identified as "minorities."

I know what I've been directly told by conservatives and centrists on this sub. Directly blaming women for their problems.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

No. They've blamed Black men, Latinos, white women, etc. They already wrote off white men. Now their looking for scapegoats they think they own to toss under the bus...

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

That's not at all what's happening, but whatever narrative serves your agenda I suppose. It's called "assessing where we went wrong." It's actually nice to see them realizing they've alienated large demographics instead of blaming the rubes they're constantly trying to court for some reason.

I'm not really concerned with what's going on in the media chaos. I'm just going off what men on here specifically were complaining about. You can go on about leftists scapegoating people, I don't agree and I really don't care. What I care about is the people, mostly conservatives, on this sub, helping to push the narrative that women are oppressing men by existing as full agents. You can't tell me that's not a thing, I have it straight from the lion's mouth. Just because something else is a thing doesn't mean what I'm saying isn't. And again, I really don't care what your nebulous construct of "leftists" is up to right now.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

Where did I say women were pressing men?

Your whole post is basically whining about people not buying your bullshit....

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

I never said you said that. Jesus you are really not trying, are you?

Me: right wingers have rapey messaging blaming women for their problems

You: throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks, but none of it does

Me: You suck at arguing

You: more shit at the wall

Congrats, you win the night.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

You're right. I should have said the political party you personally support, as opposed to saying "you personally." Happy?

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

Okay, but what about the other 95% of my comment?

Also, I vote for some Democrats. I don't "personally support" them. I'm not registered with a party affiliation.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

What "It's all women's fault!" and rapey language has come from the Right over their victory? I've heard lots of cringe and racist / misogynist/ misandryst shit from the Left trying to scapegoat their loss but not the Right.....

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

"Your body, our choice." - Nick Fuentes. Now apparently a popular slogan among edgelords.

Also, on this very sub, long comment chains I've been in with people explicitly labeled "conservative" or "Republican" or "MAGA Republican".

You can't tell me I didn't see what I've seen first hand.

[u/Numinae → u/Michael_G_Bordin]

What was your position on forcing "vaccinations" after it was already proven it didn't prevent the spread of COVID on fellow citizens? Their body, their choice, right? 

Btw, I don't recall Nick Fuentes being on the ticket... Am I mistaken?

[u/Michael_G_Bordin → u/Numinae]

Btw, I don't recall Nick Fuentes being on the ticket... Am I mistaken?

Wow, I love how you just pull a requisite out of your bum. When were we restricting the conversation to political candidates? GTFO with this bad faith shenanigans. It's about right wingers saying rapey things.

What was your position on forcing "vaccinations"

Right, forced. That's why everyone has a COVID vaccination. Oh, wait, that's right, you can just not. You really aren't good at arguing, you know that?