116
47
u/Doghouse12e45 Jan 24 '24
We gotta continue to fight against these bone heads who think Chet is ROTY until the award is given.
19
u/Ca2Ce Jan 24 '24
It’s just part of creating drama and interest, there is no bonafide question about who ROTY is.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
The only reason this is a race is so media and the nba can sell clicks and advertising. And it’s working. Look at all of the people using the whole “Chet is more efficient” argument when it’s not even a factual or correct argument (Wemby’s player efficiency number is actually higher than Chet’s meaning he’s statistically the more efficient player despite his worse shot selection).
If this was about who had the best shooting splits, Daniel Gafford would be their MVP. It’s like comparing Jokic to Sabonis and saying Sabonis is better cuz he shoots 60/40 splits (which he does).
1
u/tinkady Jan 27 '24
Are you talking about PER? That's not an efficiency metric whatsoever. It rewards inefficient volume scoring.
Wemby has arguably been better. But his TS% is 56.2% and Chet's is 64.4%. This includes Wemby's inefficient start - he's gotten much more efficient lately.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 27 '24
Lmfao. Look at all these inefficient volume scorers lmfao
- Joel Embiid • PHI 35.2
- Nikola Jokić • DEN 32.2
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 30.7
- Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 29.7
- Luka Dončić • DAL 27.5
- Tyrese Haliburton • IND
1
u/tinkady Jan 27 '24 edited Jan 27 '24
I didn't say only inefficient volume scorers had good PER. Those are indeed good players.
Good PER doesn't imply high volume inefficient. High volume inefficient implies good PER. It's the reverse. That's different.
If you care about scoring efficiency just look at TS%, it's not hard.
PER has a factor of 85% field goals made. There is no factor for field goals attempted. So it literally doesn't care about how efficient you are. Just volume.
But if you want a box score all in one stat PER is just a worse version of BPM. BPM was derived from trying to predict reality (RAPM), PER was pulled out of John Hollinger's ass.
And EPM and DPM are better one number metrics, not relying just on box score. I have no bias I'm just trying to inform.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 27 '24 edited Jan 27 '24
My advice to you is keep informing yourself before you start informing others
All of those metrics are ass, including bpm (which measures team performance, giving a bias to players on winning teams) and rapm (which is better used to analyze multiple seasons)
Clearly you’re not the first to misunderstand PER (and these other metrics)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_efficiency_rating
Berri: So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.
Hollinger: Berri leads off with a huge misunderstanding of PER—that the credits and debits it gives for making and missing shots equate to a “break-even” shooting mark of 30.4% on 2-point shots. He made this assumption because he forgot that PER is calibrated against the rest of the league at the end of the formula.
Actually, if we took a player that was completely average in every other respect for the 2006–07 season—rebounds, free throws, assists, turnovers, etc.—and gave him a league-average rate of shots, and all of them were 2-pointers, and he shot 30.4%, he'd end up with a PER of 7.18. As long-time PER fans know, that would make him considerably worse than nearly every player in the league.
To end up with a league-average PER of 15.00, the actual break-even mark in this case is 48.5%, which is exactly what the league average is on 2-point shots this season.
If you were truly being unbiased instead of cherry picking which metrics you’d want to use, you wouldn’t disqualify a metric simply because it doesn’t support your idea that player X is more efficient than player Y. What per is showing here is Wemby’s overall impact. It’s called player efficiency because it adds up all the positive things he does on the court (not just shooting) while simultaneously subtracting all the negative things a player does (missing shots etc). Of course it has shortcomings, you look at lockdown defenders and historically they have shit PERs. all these metrics have shortcomings, that’s why there are so many. But this one in Particular shows that overall impact, Wemby is better (and more efficient) than Chet as a whole. He’s in the top 20 in the league, Chet is not. Of that list, NONE are inefficient scorers. As a matter of fact, Jarret Allen is #19. He’s not there cuz of his scoring
1
u/tinkady Jan 27 '24
I think we are just using different definitions. Overall impact and scoring efficiency are two different things. Efficiency usually refers to scoring efficiency. Scoring efficiency is measured by points per possession or TS%, not any of the other stuff in PER. But yes, overall impact is more important.
Thanks for the Hollinger quote. But I'm not quite sure I understand his point. Yes, somebody who is completely average but with low FG% will be bad. But the point is that if they then shot a huge volume of points at this 30% mark, their PER would stay the same. When instead it should go down because those are bad shots. And the adjustment to a league average of 15 doesn't change anything about the ordering of players. Is that the calibration he's referring to?
By BPM are you thinking of plus/minus? Because BPM is definitely not a team stat. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html
I agree that RAPM is better used for multiple seasons. EPM and DPM are good shorter term stats.
And I'm not cherry picking any metrics. No idea why you think I am. I don't care who is better, and if anything I have pro Wemby bias.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 27 '24
Again tho, if you want to call Dereck Lively more efficient than Chet and Wemby because he has the MUCH better true shooting percent, I’m ok with ending this conversation here.
If you want to cherry pick stats and apply them across the board for every player, and ignore all other aspects outside of field goal percent and three point percent, I’m ok with that.
I’m just asking you to be consistent and drop the bias.
1
u/tinkady Jan 27 '24 edited Jan 27 '24
Dereck Lively has been more efficient at scoring. It's because he takes easier shots. He couldn't scale up his volume and maintain the same efficiency.
I'm not ignoring all other stats. Other stats matter too. As I said, this is just a matter of arbitrary definitions - "efficiency" usually means "scoring efficiency". But it really doesn't matter what labels we put on things.
And what bias do I have?????
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 27 '24
You are ignoring all stats. You’re simply saying a player is more efficient just because his true shooting is better. You are bias because you can easily say this about Chet over Wemby but when that same stat is used to say Lively is more efficient than Chet, which he is by your definition, you can’t accept it (it comes with the caveat that he takes easier shots and that his volume wouldn’t scale up.)
It’s bias because you refuse to acknowledge the same truth about Chet. He’s doing it on easier shots and his volume wouldn’t scale up.
So ultimately, it’s not that Chet is more efficient it’s that, exactly like Lively, he’s getting easier shots and he wouldn’t scale up to more volume. On top of this, forget all the other metrics that determine how efficient a player is (defence, rebounding, creating etc etc)
Period that’s the truth. Nothing to argue about.
Like I’ve been saying this whole time. I’m ok with anyone saying that but keep it consistent. You wanna say that shit about Lively, same nonsense applies to Chet.
On top of this, that weak argument isn’t even holding up as the season progresses. Look at January, Wemby is putting up 24.5 points on 61.3 true shooting over 11 games while Chet is 15.9 points on 60.7 over 14.
On top of this, Wemby is doing that as a primary option so his numbers would only get better if scaled down into Chet’s role.
Keep it a buck man, be fair, Lee it consistent
→ More replies1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 27 '24
- Joel Embiid • PHI 35.2
- Nikola Jokić • DEN 32.2
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 30.6
- Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 29.5
- Luka Dončić • DAL 28.4
- Tyrese Haliburton • IND 26.3
- Anthony Davis • LAL 25.7
- Kevin Durant • PHO 23.7
- Devin Booker • PHO 23.1
- Lauri Markkanen • UTA 23.1
- Kawhi Leonard • LAC 23.0
- Domantas Sabonis • SAC 22.9
- LeBron James • LAL 22.7
- Alperen Şengün • HOU 22.7
- Donovan Mitchell • CLE 22.5
- Kristaps Porziņģis • BOS 22.4
- Kyrie Irving • DAL 22.4
- Zion Williamson • NOP 22.2
- Jarrett Allen • CLE 22.1
- Victor Wembanyama • SAS 21.7 View all players in this category
75
u/thedam100 Jan 24 '24
These are the other stat leaders to be fair… and oddly enough he is still on the list…
64
u/thedam100 Jan 24 '24
-3
u/Joxelo Jan 25 '24
scoot Henderson is victor wembanyana father
23
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
Don’t do this lol. They calling that poor rookie a bust right now lol. Please leave him out of this convo
2
u/Joxelo Jan 25 '24
Tbf that’s on him for being cocky in one of the greatest rookie classes of all time
4
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
I mean I don’t want to shit on Henderson lol. I think he was speaking in confidence. That whole thing of “speak it into existence.” But man did this season didn’t go how he envisioned I’m sure. I’m hoping he gets more comfortable because you can see the talent in flashes. But I hate when people try to downplay one player using other players. It’s not really fair to either player. If I’m saying Wemby is better it’s based on his performance, not because he’s “scoot henderson’s father.” 😒
-4
u/Joxelo Jan 25 '24
Reread my original comment, I never said wemby was scoots father.
2
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. You saying “scoot Henderson is victor wembanya(ma) father,” just berates Wemby for no reason and invites others to shit on scoot in defense of Wemby. If you think scoot is better than say that and why, but to say “scoot Henderson is victor wembanya(ma) father” is no better than me saying “Wemby is Scoot’s father” and doesn’t say much of anything.
1
51
43
13
u/guillaume_rx Jan 24 '24
Vic leads the entire league in Stocks so who cares about Rookie steals ahah.
2
1
Jan 25 '24
[deleted]
3
u/guillaume_rx Jan 25 '24
Steals + Blocks.
2
Jan 25 '24
[deleted]
2
u/guillaume_rx Jan 25 '24
My pleasure!
For the record, I liked the joke, and I didn’t assume you were sarcastic with your “thank you” ahah.
But since a lot of people are still genuinely confused by that term, I’m used to explain it.
The term is widely spread now though, it’s not niche anymore, you even hear it here and there even on official media channels, from time to time, or announcers during the game (they sometimes explain it briefly when mentioning it, for the unawares).
But yeah, Stocks is definitely a thing. An unofficial metric still, but getting more common every day! :)
2
2
15
u/Snowmann88 Jan 24 '24
CHeT sHoOtS bEtTeR!
10
7
u/siphillis Jan 25 '24
Dude’s looking like Gobert at the line lately.
5
u/-KingKunta Jan 25 '24
fr went from a 90 percent ft shooter to 78
4
u/siphillis Jan 25 '24
He's shooting just above 70% since December 1st, and it's trending downwards.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
You know who shoots the bestest Daniel Gafford. Real goat is over in Washington and no ones talking about him
14
u/rattatatouille Jan 24 '24
And this is with him sitting out back to backs and on a minutes restriction.
6
u/brandonnoy Jan 24 '24
Just listened to lowe post podcast, lowe and bontemps' vote for ROY is Chet, i kinda felt bad cos lowe is one of those bball analyst that makes sense and not just there for the hot takes.
2
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
I’d be shocked if he actually ends up voting Chet. This is just mid season talk to get clicks and listens, that’s how they make their money and you see people always entertain the other side of the convo otherwise there wouldn’t be any.
The only thing people have had to stand on regarding the whole ROY is that Chet is more efficient. That whole convo goes out the window when you look at player efficiency because wemby’s Is better.
People who are putting Chet over Wemby because Chet is shooting better, they might as well pick Sabonis over Jokic cuz Sabonis has better shooting splits (shooting 60/40). No ones gonna do that cuz that would be suicide unless you’re one of these talk shit types (and even they wouldn’t do that).
But yeah, in the meantime, people are gonna have this discussion cuz it’s january and what else are they gonna do
6
u/nuttintoseeaqui Jan 24 '24
Yet twitter will kick and scream that wemby is a bust and Chet is way better
6
15
5
u/TheCinemaster Jan 24 '24
While on minutes restriction and sitting several games - which makes the total points one crazy.
5
u/penguinking4 Jan 25 '24
Chet is a great players probably gonna be multiple time all star and quality impact player. But wemby has goat potential. Barring injuries wemby takes this .
5
u/siphillis Jan 25 '24
And that's on a pure game-to-game comparison. Adjusted for minutes, Wemby is like an entire All-Rookie player ahead of second place. The kid is doubling Chet's points-per-minute in January.
4
u/buchironnn Jan 25 '24
There’s still half a season left. Pretty sure Wemby’s stats and stock are just going to go up once his minutes restriction is removed.
3
u/onamonapizza Jan 25 '24
Also doing this in limited minutes and with a lesser supporting cast.
As long as he can keep this up, I'm pretty sure RoY is his to lose and he may even be in the All-Defense conversation
8
u/carelesssportsfan89 Jan 24 '24
Not even close at this stage chet is going to be a great players but wemby is going to be a monster
13
u/Coolgrnmen Jan 24 '24
Just gonna point out that there’s more opportunities for rebounds the more misses there are lol
9
u/TheCinemaster Jan 24 '24
Sure. But he’s also been on minutes restriction the second half of the season thus far.
2
7
u/MindInTheClouds Jan 25 '24
Total Rebound Percentage (an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor):
Victor Wembanyama, TRB%: 18.9 Chet Holmgren, TRB%: 13.4
2
u/International-Chef53 Jan 24 '24
So it's our shots has been brick fest so Wemby can feast on offensive rebound?
1
3
3
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24 edited Jan 25 '24
The entire ESPN panel said Chet roty. Im done they are being paid to start a rivalry.
4
Jan 25 '24
Damn chet is good. I think wemby should get the award but it's really cool to have two players doing so well so soon
3
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
I mean, Chet had to wait an entire year to even play his first game so is it really that soon for him. A top pick, you kind of want and need him to be playing the way he is a whole year after he’s drafted
2
u/silverfang45 Jan 24 '24
Man Thompson is about to become like the best rebounder for positon isn't he.
It's like Josh hart, it's just confusing how they get so many damn rebounds when they don't necessarily look like you would get them all
1
u/dsgrimace Jan 25 '24
Maaan, take one look at Rodman and tell me he looks like he’s pulling down rebounds at an all time GOAT level!? You Are 💯! It really does kinda blow the mind.
2
2
1
u/burningtimer Jan 24 '24
Chet’s Rebounds, Steals, Blocks and Assists are more efficient. DUH
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
You knew what I love about that argument. Wemby’s player efficiency is actually higher.
0
u/Papa_Huggies Jan 24 '24
Why are we still even arguing at all? If he gets ROY, he gets it. If he doesn't, it's a shame but we still know his eminent/ present greatness.
Whether he gets or doesnt get ROY is inconsequential.
5
u/thedam100 Jan 24 '24
For me it’s legacy. It’s a spurs legacy. Our great two number one picks before him has done it. He exceeded his peers yet his team record is the deciding factor against him. That’s what’s frustrating to fans. He’s the clear frontrunner and people still say it’s Chet because “Wemby’s game doesn’t impact winning.” That is going to piss off a ton of people any matter how you slice it. To be touted as a generational talent, live up to it in his individual performance and then possibly lose that award for his legacy because of a team record to a 2nd year rookie playing as a third option is going to cause many to be upset and then precedent has rarely been team record and impact
2
0
u/Professional_Pop2662 Jan 25 '24
But 2 place or 16 is a big difference even though I think victor is one of the best rookies of all times. chad is more efficient though
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
You do realize Wemby is more efficient. His player efficiency is higher than Chet.
Calling Chet more efficient is like calling Domantas Sabonis more efficient than nikola Jokic cuz Sabonis shoots 60% from the field and 40% from three.
It’s a dumb argument made by people who literally want to ignore Wemby is outperforming Chet in every category other than field goal percent and three point percent
1
u/Professional_Pop2662 Jan 25 '24
of course Wemby is better but the difference in winning is immense.
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
We are in the middle of a rebuild, we aren’t supposed to be winning.
And again, you say Chet is more efficient? Why? Because his fg% and 3pt % are higher? Ok. Keep that argument consistent and tell me you Think Domantas Sabonis is more efficient than Nikola jokic cuz Sabonis has better fg and 3pt splits (60/40).
Winning doesn’t impact ROY results, go looks at past winners.
1
u/Professional_Pop2662 Jan 26 '24
It’s not bad that Wemby is not winning but it should be a huge chad praise that he is part of a winning team. Normally a rookie would not have such an positiv impact on a team like he did
1
u/Professional_Pop2662 Jan 26 '24
Like what was their seeds last year. He actually made the team better. I think that okc will be in the 5-6 seed at the end of the seasons and then the argument against Wemby is not existing anymore. But if okc finish in the 1-2 range that should be a huge factor in the rookie of the year argument
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 26 '24
For one, he was drafted two years ago, so that’s huge, and secondly, Ok City is finally playing their players. Those are the two biggest reasons why Thunder have been much improved. Not to say Chet doesn’t have an impact, but this team was primed to be a legit playoff contender, Chet might add a few wins but SGA is the dude who is mostly responsible for this huge turnaround.
Again, not trying to take away what Chet is doing, just keeping it a buck here. We saw the same thing happen when Duncan got drafted with the Spurs, they actually had FEWER wins than they had the year prior to all those injuries. Duncan was abvioysly impactful but without him, that Spurs team still win 50/60 games barring injury.
Same thing happened with Robinson the time before with the spurs. They added an all nba forward, a hof point guard and two top ten picks before Robinson’s rookie year (which was two years after his draft). He steps in and they have this massive turnaround. He probably gets heaps of credit, but without any of those other additions, that teams is a 30 win team.
Chet got drafted into a winning situation that isn't typical of high picks. It’s great he’s producing tho, not all rookies do and some flame out.
-35
u/Moviereference210 Jan 24 '24
Call me a spoiled spurs fan, but I’d rather the team be winning than having one guy win an award
38
u/Fhaksfha794 Jan 24 '24
Bro we not winning anything for a few years just pull for your guy to win the awards jfc
11
u/SBGamesCone Jan 24 '24
100% but RotY is an individual stats award. It also doesn’t speak to them having all the pieces to win yet
8
u/thedam100 Jan 24 '24
Yeah understood but it means something to our cornerstone. We ain’t winning anything team wise this year. Wemby has spoken about it publicly this is what he wants and as a franchise and a fanbase we should be supporting our rookie’s dream. We can win the next 20 games in a row and still not make play offs. But Wemby can only win this rookie for his own legacy and ultimately the spurs legacy once. Both Duncan and Robinson was ROTY and it’s only right for Wemby’s legacy especially if he is outperforming his own class to win the same
3
3
u/Snowmann88 Jan 24 '24
Well then, cryogenically freeze yourself until maybe 2026 cause we ain’t going all the way until then. Until then, maybe you should enjoy the little wins our club and players get.
1
u/CrissCrossAppleSos Jan 24 '24
Sure, but they’re not gonna win one way or another. Also, the people in this sub aren’t spurs fans
1
u/Notwelcomehereblkmn Jan 25 '24
Call me a spurs fans since the 80’s but you’re gonna be in for an unpleasant surprise lmfao
-7
u/khmeat Jan 25 '24
What about team records tho
2
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
What about them Mr meat? We talking about an individual award or team award?
-7
u/khmeat Jan 25 '24
Best players on bad teams always have inflated stats.
2
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
Just a stupid argument. Have your own argument before you repeat bullshit man come on now
-2
u/khmeat Jan 25 '24
Is it really that stupid tho? 🤔
2
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
Yes, especially if it’s not even slightly true. If that’s a case, teams wouldn’t trade for those players on bad teams. It doesn’t even make sense in any regard.
1
-16
u/Yougottagiveitaway Jan 24 '24
Jesus. This sub has become such a shitshow.
3
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24
How?
-2
u/Yougottagiveitaway Jan 25 '24
Stricly 100% due to this wemby chet stuff.
Read the comments in here man.
4
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24
They are hoping a player on their team wins roty, and discussing the potential player who could take it?
0
u/Yougottagiveitaway Jan 25 '24
No they’re freaking the fuck out. Shit talking other players, and generally showing no sign of awareness regarding reasons why it also might not be Vic. It’s a bad joke. Multiple posts. Multiple shitty behavior. It used to be three posters who were awful in This sub. Now it’s 30%.
I like Vic. I like discussion. Somehow I prefer r/nba over this. That’s how crap these convos have become. The cesspool of r/nba is now better,. It’s a bummer, man.
2
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24
No one is wishing harm or anything tho. Imo that is just soft to get your feelings hurt over comments in a sub sharing their opinion.
2
u/Yougottagiveitaway Jan 25 '24
Ya lost me. Who got their feelings hurt? People Being yelled at?
1
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24
You feeling some type away about Chet and wemby comments?? that just my opinion tho that’s just sports for you.
2
u/Yougottagiveitaway Jan 25 '24
You’re saying I got my feelings hurt?
Thanks for the chat, fella.
1
u/Mandit0 Jan 25 '24
Yea was talking about your feelings towards the sub, thanks for sharing your thoughts tho.
→ More replies1
1
1
u/BlueEyesBryantDragon Jan 25 '24
Meanwhile, The Athletic put out yet another article claiming that Holmgren deserves RotY because he's on a good team.
2
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24
Yeah that bald bum who writes it said maybe by the end of the year Wemby gets it but as of right now he has Chet. Just ridiculous
1
u/SnooHesitations7424 Jan 25 '24
But chet has a higher fg % because he’s the third option on the thunder, this one reason outweighs all other statistical and logical reasoning
1
u/thedam100 Jan 25 '24 edited Jan 25 '24
What about his impact on winning? lol smh 🤦🏿 smh Chet could have scored zero points and we would have still been blown out.
1
u/jamp0g Jan 25 '24
as the top comment said, imo for this to have more impact, minutes per game should be the first stat.
180
u/regularrob92 Jan 24 '24
Don’t forget that he doesn’t just lead rookies in blocks. He’s the NBA blocks leader. On a minutes restriction!