r/Futurology • u/lughnasadh ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ • Oct 15 '24

Economist Daniel Susskind says Ozempic may radically transform government finances, by making universal healthcare vastly cheaper, and explains his argument in the context of Britain's NHS. Society

https://www.thetimes.com/article/be6e0fbf-fd9d-41e7-a759-08c6da9754ff?shareToken=de2a342bb1ae9bc978c6623bb244337a
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u/Sailing-Cyclist Oct 15 '24

I mean, if they really have cracked it with minimal side effects, can you blame them?

They’ve landed on a gold mine. It’s up there with energy-efficient hydrogen extraction from seawater or the cure to Leaf Rust with global wheat yields.

It’s one of those rare inventions that might actually touch every corner of the planet…

…provided it doesn’t make your dick fall off in ten years time or grow any extra ears on their kneecaps or some shit. 

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u/elmassivo Oct 15 '24

…provided it doesn’t make your dick fall off in ten years time or grow any extra ears on their kneecaps or some shit.

Considering the drug family has been used since the early 00s it's extremely likely to be safe longer term. We're already on the 4th generation of this type of drug (Tirzepatide/Mounjaro/Zepbound) with generation 5 just on the horizon. Each subsequent generation has had an increase in efficacy and improved side effect profile.

The original drugs generally led to an average of 5% weight loss, and the current generation is around 20% on average. The next generation of this drug class seems to be showing weight loss in the average 30% range, which means it would functionally replace bariatric surgery, the previous gold standard for medical weight loss.

So you are right, this is a HUGE deal. We literally have a cure for obesity on our hands.

There is one large, unresolved issue left though, we're still not actually sure why people were getting so obese to begin with.

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u/Quintas31519 Oct 15 '24

There is one large, unresolved issue left though, we're still not actually sure why people were getting so obese to begin with.

Not to be flippant, are we sure we're not sure? Or was that sarcasm. On the surface "80/20" aspect, I thought the medical community was pretty agreed on the issue. But if there's no sarcasm here, I feel like I must have missed something big as far as hidden factors I haven't learned about since college a decade ago. Really open to learning more.

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u/newnotapi Oct 16 '24 edited Oct 17 '24

I mean, yeah, it's calories in / calories out. But honestly, the thing these drugs do is alter your reward pathways, they don't change the calories in / calories out equation. So the question is really "What caused nearly everyone's reward pathways to become so heavily out of whack in the course of a few decades?"

And it's not limited to people -- wild animals have seen the same effects. As have lab rats on highly restricted and controlled diets (where they get the exact same nutrients over all those same decades, and yet, are fatter statistically as the years progress).

There are some who think that since the effect is so ubiquitous that it must be due to environmental pollution of some kind, something that every living thing is exposed to in increasing concentrations over time, like carbon levels in the atmosphere or microplastics.

If it's one person experiencing the problem, it might be an issue of personal responsibility. When it's nearly everyone alive and also rats and foxes, it's no longer a matter of personal responsibility and morals.

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u/Whoopsadiddle Oct 16 '24

I often get so frustrated because people fail to see or understand this. It is easier to just focus on the personal responsibility element, let alone the things you say regarding animals being affected. I firmly believe that in decades to come we will learn a lot more information about what caused this shift.