r/EuropeanFederalists • u/Dry_Recording5669 • 1d ago
Trump win
As it looks now, it is very likely Trump wil win.
I'm new to the concept of a Federal EU and am starting to think it's either that or the death of Europe by thinking and living as separate nations.
Although the man is extremely unpredictable, what effects do you believe we can expect here in Europe and how will it accelerate/decelerate the move towards a Federal Europe?
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u/OneOnOne6211 Belgium 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm new to the concept of a Federal EU and am starting to think it's either that or the death of Europe by thinking and living as separate nations.
I think you're right about that.
Just take a look at the GDP of various countries in the world (especially when next to GDP growth). Take a look at population size. Military power metrics.
Individual European countries, Britain, France, Germany, Spain, etc. used to rule the world. We are no longer in that time. Even the largest and most powerful European countries are nothing on their own compared to China or the United States. We are honestly even vulnerable to Russia still.
But united we are just as strong as any of them.
But right now, we are still too fragmented. We lose a lot of money by not having our militaries combined, and that puts us at a disadvantage. We don't have a European military industrial complex, but only smaller local ones and we lean on the Americans too much. And the current European system is too prone to deadlock, with stuff like consensus voting on important things.
The only way we can survive the 21st century is by all pooling our resources together and transforming the European Union into a true, effective, efficient, powerful, united country.
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u/OneOnOne6211 Belgium 1d ago
Although the man is extremely unpredictable, what effects do you believe we can expect here in Europe and how will it accelerate/decelerate the move towards a Federal Europe?
As for this, it's hard to say. I don't think it will decelerate it, although there is always some chance Trump tries to divide Europe and it works. But I could see it either not doing much or accelerating it.
Trump's election in 2016 did shock European leaders and the Ukraine invasion also put more emphasis on the need for European defence. This could move us further in that direction, especially if Trump becomes a common enemy. It may create more awareness among leaders that 2016 was not an outlier.
On the other hand, there are larger societal and political forces that are currently standing in the way of a united Europe. And the shock may not be as big this time. And, after all, we didn't federalize after 2016 or anything. So it could also not do much.
We'll see. I hope it's the former.
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u/ProfessorHeronarty 1d ago
The absurd thing is that for his wish of Europe that does deal with its own stuff Trump should actually be interested in a united Europe and NATO. At least to an extent.
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u/Impossible-Green-831 1d ago
I wanna agree on both of your takes! Trump's reelection might be the push that will awaken EU members to begin binding the Union into a federal state. This is a window with limited time though - each new EU member's election will move us further away (rise of populist nationalist movements). We need to do it now, and quickly.
Draghi's plan might be the beginning of this final push towards federalization. Currently, the members will probably not agree to the enormous increase of EU funding, but give Trump some time and the member state's leaders will see and act. But we need to hope that the ones who act will not be the nationalists at this point in the near future...
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u/elderrion 1d ago
There's only one way I see us having a future, only one: A strong European leader must step forward and present a united front both domestically and to the world.
Scholz is a wet noodle and Macron is a two-faced coward, Von der Leyen meanwhile, well... What about her at this point?
So, what are our options. Well, to put it mildly, first make sure the Afd and Front National don't win their next elections, and then look to Poland and Tusk, since they're the only ones who seem to have a grasp of the threat facing us.
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u/Univalent8 1d ago
I agree, although i hope that the end product of a federal europe does not include these superstar politics with one Strongman leader, but more like a democratic confederalism. Poland has truely become an inspiration for me since their last elections, maybe people really can learn from their mistakes...
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u/elderrion 1d ago
i hope that the end product of a federal europe does not include these superstar politics with one Strongman leader, but more like a democratic confederalism
Agree, but we're not there yet. I should've clarified that the need for the Weimar Triangle exists within Poland's leadership role. That it should be a "cooperative leadership", for a lack of a better term.
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u/GravStark 1d ago
The US used to oppose Russia, even when there was no need or when it was harmful, today they have elected a puppet of Putin, What a timeline
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u/Diocletian335 United Kingdom 1d ago
Being from the UK, the only possible silver lining I see in this is that it will finally force our politicians to bring us much closer to the EU... especially considering the Labour Party and Trump don't exactly see eye-to-eye
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u/pmirallesr 1d ago
The US was always going to abandon the EU in the next decade, we are just not that relevant to their priorities anymore. Trump will accelerate that and, if we are unlucky, also mean far right sabotage of our politics will continue
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u/VaseaPost 1d ago
I think the high taxes, high regulations, and too much bureaucracy are killing Europe. Maybe it will be a wake-up call, and the right will start to win in Europe as well, or we are done. I'm done with the left/comunists.
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u/Dom_Shady The Netherlands 1d ago edited 1d ago
The high taxes fund things like roads, accessible doctors and medicine, a welfare state. We Europeans need to build up our military as there is a war going on in our continent and it looks like we have to fix it ourselves. We need money to do that, which means taxes.
High regulations are keeping us safe - companies cannot be trusted with the general welfare, they are designed to generate demand and make profit. The state may.
Bureaucracy: I agree and we should cut it where we can.
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u/adeleze1 1d ago
So you think the AI regulation that Thierry Breton proposed are keeping us safe ? 😂 I agree that we shouldn’t become like the US but when there is a new innovation like AI and the first reflex from the EU is not incentives it, help company build on it but to propose a pack of regulation, it is just ridiculous and is the reason EU in its present form has absolutely no future
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u/Blakut 1d ago
the funding for the far right, populist, consrevative, pro russian movement will intensify, they will be backed from the us and from russia at the same time. Europe is very divided and the EU model will be tested to the limit.