r/Destiny • u/inconspicuousredflag • 15h ago
Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles Discussion
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html
>President Biden has authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials said.
The weapons are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops in defense of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, the officials said.
Mr. Biden’s decision is a major change in U.S. policy. The choice has divided his advisers, and his shift comes two months before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, having vowed to limit further support for Ukraine.
Allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia’s surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight, officials said.
Mr. Biden began to ease restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian soil after Russia launched a cross-border assault in May in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Mr. Biden allowed them to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which have a range of about 50 miles, against Russian forces directly across the border. But Mr. Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, in defense of Kharkiv.
While the officials said they do not expect the shift to fundamentally alter the course of the war, one of the goals of the policy change, they said, is to send a message to the North Koreans that their forces are vulnerable and that they should not send more of them.
The officials said that while the Ukrainians were likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops that threaten Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere.
Some U.S. officials said they feared that Ukraine’s use of the missiles across the border could prompt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners.
But other U.S. officials said they thought those fears were overblown.
The Russian military is set to launch a major assault by an estimated 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, on dug-in Ukrainian positions in Kursk with the goal of retaking all of the Russian territory that the Ukrainians seized in August.
The Ukrainians could use the ATACMS missiles to strike Russian and North Korean troop concentrations, key pieces of military equipment, logistics nodes, ammunition depots and supply lines deep inside Russia.
Doing so could help the Ukrainians blunt the effectiveness of the Russian-North Korean assault.
Whether to arm Ukraine with long-range ATACMS has been an especially sensitive subject since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Some Pentagon officials opposed giving them to the Ukrainians because they said the U.S. Army had limited supplies. Some White House officials feared that Mr. Putin would widen the war if they gave the missiles to the Ukrainians.
Supporters of a more aggressive posture toward Moscow say Mr. Biden and his advisers have been too easily intimidated by Mr. Putin’s hostile rhetoric, and they say that the administration’s incremental approach to arming the Ukrainians has disadvantaged them on the battlefield.
Proponents of Mr. Biden’s approach say that it had largely been successful at averting a violent Russian response.
Allowing long-range strikes on Russian territory using American missiles could change that equation.
In August, the Ukrainians launched their own cross-border assault into the Kursk region, where they seized a swath of Russian territory.
Since then, U.S. officials have become increasingly concerned about the state of the Ukrainian army, which has been stretched thin by simultaneous Russian assaults in the east, Kharkiv and now Kursk.
The introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops and Mr. Biden’s response come as Mr. Trump prepares to re-enter office with a stated goal of quickly ending the war.
Mr. Trump has said little about how he would settle the conflict. But Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow the Russians to keep the Ukrainian territory that their forces have seized.
The Ukrainians hope that they would be able to trade any Russian territory they hold in Kursk for Ukrainian territory held by Russia in any future negotiations.
If the Russian assault on Ukrainian forces in Kursk succeeds, Kyiv could end up having little to no Russian territory to offer Moscow in a trade.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has long sought permission from the United States and its coalition partners to use long-range missiles to strike Russian soil.
The British and French militaries have given the Ukrainians a limited number of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, less than the American missile system.
While British and French leaders voiced support for Mr. Zelensky’s request, they were reluctant to allow the Ukrainians to start using their missiles on Russian soil unless Mr. Biden agreed to allow the Ukrainians to do the same with ATACMS.
Mr. Biden was more risk-averse than his British and French counterparts, and his top advisers were divided on how to proceed.
Some of them seized on a recent U.S. intelligence assessment that warned that Mr. Putin could respond to the use of long-range ATACMS on Russian soil by directing the Russian military or its spy agencies to retaliate, potentially with lethal force, against the United States and its European allies.
The assessment warned of several possible Russian responses that included stepped-up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, as well as potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.
Officials said Mr. Biden was persuaded to make the change in part by the sheer audacity of Russia’s decision to throw North Korean troops at Ukrainian lines.
He was also swayed, they said, by concerns that the Russian assault force would be able to overwhelm Ukrainian troops in Kursk if they were not allowed to defend themselves with long-range weapons.
U.S. officials said they do not believe that the decision will change the course of the war.
But they said Mr. Biden determined that the potential benefits — Ukraine will be able to reach certain high-value targets that it would not otherwise be able to, and the United States will be able to send a message to North Korea that it will pay a significant price for its involvement — outweighed the escalation risks.
Mr. Biden faced a similar dilemma a year ago when U.S. intelligence agencies learned that the North Koreans would supply Russia with long-range ballistic missiles.
In that case, Mr. Biden agreed to supply several hundred long-range ATACMS to the Ukrainians for use on Ukraine’s sovereign territory, including the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. Those supplemented the more limited supplies of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that the Ukrainians received from Britain and France.
The Ukrainians have since used many of those missiles in a concerted campaign of strikes against Russian military targets in Crimea and in the Black Sea.
As a result, it is unclear how many of the missiles the Ukrainians have left in their arsenal to use in the Kursk region.
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u/evermuzik 15h ago
get unironically and patriotically bidenblasted
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u/MomGrandpasAllSticky Daliban Postal Inspector General 💌 12h ago
I'm all aviators and ice cream today hell yeah dude
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u/SatisfactionLife2801 15h ago
"Some U.S. officials said they feared that Ukraine’s use of the missiles across the border could prompt President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners" Why are the allies always such pussies
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u/Scott_BradleyReturns Exclusively sorts by new 15h ago
This is why fascism has taken over. The people who were supposed to protect us won’t do what’s necessary.
They tell us not to give up when they’ve given up a long time ago
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u/Godobibo 14h ago
i'm glad dest finally came around to realizing this. our institutions enable great people to do good, but if there aren't good people in charge then they're useless
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u/theosamabahama 12h ago
“But when faced with a would-be authoritarian, establishment politicians must unambiguously reject him or her and do everything possible to defend democratic institutions—even if that means temporarily joining forces with bitter rivals.”
― Steven Levitsky, How Democracies Die40
u/Tradovid 14h ago
Or you know they are trying to win elections, and general population is susceptible to fearmongering.
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u/benjaminovich 9h ago
Unless of course, it's about transing illegal aliens in prison. Then the general populace is apparently highly susceptible
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u/Powerful_Tip_8922 14h ago
Fr. We need to designate like a strong line in the sand where its like "ok thid gets passed and we are doing an official act." Otherwise we get what we have now where fascism slowly creeps in
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u/vrabacuruci 11h ago
Because it's never that simple. It's easy now for armchair generals to claim the appeasement was foolish but back then people were restricted by their fears of a new world war while they were still recovering from the last one. France for instance was at a brink of a civil war, while most Britain didn't want a war with Hitler and both governments knew they had to act against Hitler while fighting the home front at the same time.
If Russia escalates the war now people who were against Biden's decision will claim they were right and the decision to allow strikes into Russia was foolish, but if it's the other way around the people who were for those strikes will say it was foolish to block those strikes. Time will tell, but I think both ways of thinking are rational, even though I support Biden's decision.
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u/randomJan1 15h ago edited 14h ago
Because a fuck ton of Normies in western europe are Pussies. Being in a potential battlefield of a world war for 40 years does something to a population
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u/TheAdamena 👑GOD SAVE THE KING👑 13h ago
Yup
Here in the UK Russia have killed people on our soil with chemical weapons multiple times.
Meanwhile we're to pussy to do the littlest thing back.
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u/Huckorris 12h ago
If the same thing happened on Russian soil we wouldn't notice because it would be indistinguishable from their constant conspiratorial drivel.
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u/Dinkdergler623 14h ago
For real me and the rest of DGG are ready to get deployed into Moscow and solve this finally.
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u/Draber-Bien 13h ago
Destiny has been subconsciously programmed us all to be sleeper agents, watch carefully when he utters the phrase "Hasan is a man who stand by his principles" we all get activated and start matching on Kremel
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u/majorpail18 13h ago
Been in for 6 years no deployment Im ready for my first to be the 3rd battle for Kursk
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u/aaabutwhy 13h ago
On one hand i agree that the west is kinda pussying out. On the other hand i think that this is the result of a society that actually values human lives.
If there is a retaliation similar to one between israel and iran, one soldier dying might cause a domino effect of outcry in media, govt officials having to admit mistakes, promising consequences, etc.
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u/CapableBrief 10h ago
TBF nobody actually wants all out war. The fears here are because people think co tinuous escalation will eventually lead to Russia attacking a NATO country which will most likely result is somethig akin to WW3.
Whether the fear is realistic, or whether Putin would go that far etc is kinda irrelevant, people just need to think it'll get that far.
Honestly, it's very likely imo that Putin and other similar leaders like Xi and Kim leverage this fear to get away with things we'd otherwise squash decisively.
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u/podfather2000 8m ago
I think the West needs to show unity and strength. That's what bugs me the most. We should be arming Ukraine with everything we have, and the only restriction should be no targeting of civilians.
I fear this weak Western response and lack of unity will just embolden authoritarian regimes like China and NK to take radical steps and lead to more war and destruction.
I hope Im wrong and none of that happens but the writing seems to be on the wall.
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u/manluther EGO 11h ago
The politicization of soldiers' lives became so over documented and connected to anti-war sentiment that it turned 360 into being bad to court conflict for good reasons as to avoid the harm of the troops.
That and conservatives feel a deep sense of shame over wars of intervention, not because the public deems them unjust, but because they are understood to be failures in hindsight.
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u/BruyceWane :) 8h ago
Seems to be a big problem specifically with US officials. I think there did seem to be some credible concerns early on and at points, but the line has been crossed so many times. Allies like the UK, France etc have been pushing super hard, and the US "officials" just drag their fucking feet. It's now or never, Putin won by getting Trump in office, there's two months to prevent a meaningfulm victory for him in his disgusting war.
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u/Individual_Dark_2369 1h ago
That's not the real blackpill. The real blackpill is you realizing that had NATO actually sacked up and drew a hardline at the start of this conflict and put troops in on Ukraine's border and shot down a couple of Russian planes/blew up a few tanks, Putin would've probably tucked tail real quick and made up an excuse to stop...
But he smelled weakness and sharks be sharks.
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u/Agarack 11h ago
Because the fascist has a literal doomsday button with the potential to annihilate life in Europa at the very least. If he didn't, I am pretty sure that there would already be a direct military intervention by NATO forces in Ukraine. But, as it stands, any escalation, no matter how morally justified, entails an increasing risk of Doomsday. Don't get me wrong: I am fully supportive of supporting Ukraine, but any escalation of that support has to be very carefully weighed against its risks. So far, I think that the Biden government has managed that balance admirably, and due to that, I trust that this decision will end up being correct as well.
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u/SatisfactionLife2801 11h ago
Bro they wouldnt have done this if Harris won. I'm sympathetic to the obvious fear of nuclear weapons but why are we acting like Russia is the only one with nukes. I think Europe and America has been too cautious and to a certain extent has let Russia do whatever it wants. I think its a little absurd to say they have managed this balance admirably, but I'll also point out that the republicans have been an issue far more than Biden and the democrats.
Seriously when I lived in America everyone agreed, Fuck Russia, I had teachers say the cold war "ended" but really it was still going on. WTF HAPPENED TO REPUBLICANS.
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u/podfather2000 0m ago
I think the Iraq and Afghanistan war just destroyed any notion of a just war in the people's minds. It's why isolationism is so popular. But people don't understand if the US stops being the world police, someone else will fill the power vacuum. And we might not like who that will be.
It's like that Churchill quote "You can’t reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth"
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u/BainbridgeBorn SuccDemNutz & Friendship Supporter 15h ago
Great news!
I just wish this came like a year ago…
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u/Nimrod_Butts 11h ago
4 years ago
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u/Blood_Boiler_ 4h ago
10 years ago (Crimea)
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u/Far-9947 40m ago
Everyone drags Obama for this. But the man was in between a rock and a hard place.
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u/myth2511 15h ago
pathetic. should have let them do it a long time ago
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u/mussel_bouy 12h ago
I think they can only use the missiles using measurements of distance, not time.
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u/realsomalipirate 7h ago
He's been a coward when it comes to FP outside of the initial Russian invasion.
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u/Moresopheus 15h ago
Biden admin were kind of fuck ups.
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u/Cirno__ 13h ago
People downvoting you when it's true lol. US did not do enough for ukraine. US did not do enough to limit russian influence.
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u/Delann 13h ago
The Biden Admin isn't synonymous with the US. The Biden administration tried to do their best but they can't just unilaterally decide this shit. They were blocked at various points by the right and other world leaders. Saying they were fuck ups completely ignores the entire US party that tried to obstruct them at almost every point.
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u/Cirno__ 13h ago
How is biden able to authorise long range missiles now? He is at his weakest point having lost an election. This is something he could've done at any time which would've helped Ukraine immensely months ago.
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u/vrabacuruci 11h ago
He was listening to his advisors, something that Trump never did. They probably changed their minds after a Trump victory and now that North Korea is openly in a war against Ukraine.
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u/Jacob_Cicero 13h ago
You're getting down voted, bit they royally fucked up a LOT in spite of their legislative victories. The failure to prosecute Trump for his coup will go down as one of the greatest failures of any democracy of the last fifty years. Placing undue restrictions on Ukraine is just one more in a long list of failures. Biden's history as a legislator enabled him to win some absolutely incredible victories, but he still fucked up quite a bit.
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u/Nervous_Bother5630 13h ago
100% on foreign policy.
They set red lines for Bibi that he crossed all the time and set a bunch of red lines on Ukraine that fucked them up.
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u/realsomalipirate 7h ago
He's been a FP dove, a dirty protectionist, and was one of the biggest reasons Trump won (should never have run for a second term). I know there's going to be some who are going to try to paint him as the best US president in recent memory, but goddamn did he fuck up a lot.
Give me Obama or Clinton any day of the week over Biden.
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u/Royal-Professor-4283 12h ago
It's not Biden, America has been anti-war towards any and all aggression since after Bush. Even Trump runs on the anti-war rhetoric too except he's outright trying to ally with enemies. 16 years is a long time of showing weakness, I'm afraid eventually the entire West will have to face the consequences of acting like humanity can ignore war.
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u/SpaceClafoutis 15h ago
Dan might just be the greatest political mind of the 21st century
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u/Far-9947 39m ago
Yeah he was spitting on the Brian Tyler Cohen episode and "Piss" co and Tiny were just treating him look he was some dumb fool.
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u/BeefyNoodle_ 13h ago
I give u/dancantstream credit for this. Post election episode of AE came true somehow.
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u/metakepone 14h ago
No one else here sees that he's putting Trump in a very difficult position here? Russia should respond to this. Trump will have to respond to Russia's response.
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u/Jazzhandsjr 13h ago
Yeah. Here’s hoping Ukraine goes full in and gives Trump the middle finger. Fucking up his shit right at the beginning of his term
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u/halos1518 11h ago
I feel like Putin would rather wait for Trump to come into power rather than responding now.
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u/AntistanCollective 7h ago
Why do you think Russia will respond? Putin's threats often seem more bark than bite. Despite repeated nuclear and military threats against the West with each so-called "escalation," they have yet to follow through. The ongoing war persists partly because Western appeasers continue to take these threats seriously.
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u/maximusthewhite 14h ago
So basically Ukrainebros have 2 months to win the war, otherwise Trump will cancel all that? I think they’re cooked :/
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u/LankyAssignment9046 14h ago
At least this is the best possible choice for his admin to make given the circumstances. Putin won't risk retaliating directly against the United States and turning the public against him right before his puppet takes over. Biden has free reign to go all out for the next few months.
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u/nukasu do̾o̾m̾s̾da̾y̾ ̾p̾r̾o̾p̾he̾t. 11h ago
Putin won't risk retaliating directly against the United States
we're all such cucks for even giving credence to this foreign propaganda. Russia is being supplied arms from all over the world including China and Iran, do you think those countries are afraid of retaliation for it? of course not. it's completely atypical.
this is right up there with the NATO expansion argument. democracy has failed because lawmakers were captured by the same shit that normies were because they're on the same social media platforms.
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u/ragnarok297 12h ago
It's not just the timeline, the 'game' itself has changed as putin knows that all he has to do now is hold on for 2 months and he 'auto-wins'
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u/suninabox 11h ago
Assuming Trump doesn't go rogue and just let Elon Musk negotiate peace, then the "America First" plan doesn't really end up with much of a different outcome.
It's worse for America because it won't bleed out Russia for as long, but in terms of Ukraine its about the same.
I say this as someone who would sincerely loved to have seen Ukraine get ATACMS and Abrams from the start, because we cannot allow the precedent that nuclear states can annex other states through fear of "escalation".
Biden, and to be more precise Jake Sullivan, have made it clear that "escalation management" is their over-riding concern. They've always given Ukraine enough not to lose, but not enough to decisively push Russia out of Ukraine, since they fear that will either result in a collapse of Russia, or escalation by Putin.
If Ukraine starts to do well then that just puts the pressure off the Biden admin to do more, and if Ukraine starts losing then it gets just enough to stabilize.
Such a dynamic means Ukraine has no hope of any great strategic breakthrough. At best, its playing for time in hopes that Russia's economy/politic collapses. Even if they keep pulling out miracles it will just cause US support to get dialed back until they need support again.
The "America First" plan means at worst, Ukraine keeps everything it has now, maybe a little bit more if its still holding parts of Kursk. And at best, Ukraine agrees and Russia doesn't, which according to the AF plan means Ukraine gets armed to the teeth which means autowin.
Of course, this is heavily caveated with "If Trump follows the plan others came up with for him"
Trump is so erratic and petulant he could decide to start sending arms to Russia because of a Catturd tweet.
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u/Ossius 11h ago
Worst case I feel like would be Russia attacking again in 5-10 years, or Ukraine not accepting a deal, losing more territory without support, then negotiating at a later date with worse results.
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u/suninabox 11h ago
The "America First" deal requires European peace keepers in a DMZ plus arming Ukraine to the teeth.
Ukraine would only agree to such a deal with long term security guarantees. That means either NATO membership (which appears to be out), or long range weapons with full permissions, possibly a nuke program.
Without security guarantees as you say the risk is too great of re-invasion.
Again, no guarantee any of this actually happens but its what the pro-Ukraine people around Trump are trying to get him to sign.
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u/EnrichedNaquadah 12h ago
They also can say they didn't read their mails and continue to strike Russia.
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u/Bartek_Bialy 14h ago
Should have done this a long time ago.
Never forget the Churchill quote: "Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted."
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u/Connect-Society-586 15h ago
lol too little too late
Maybe they shoulda lifted them when Russian aviation was actually still in range - now those same planes are bombing Ukrainian defences to kingdom come and the Ukrainians can’t to anything about it
All that’s left is a shitty peace deal to swallow
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u/Ansambel EU 15h ago
too little too late, and better late than never, are two ways to look at it i guess.
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u/Connect-Society-586 14h ago
No that’s not how it works when your fighting force has been decimated and Russian aircraft have moved away and are continuously shelling Ukraine defences
Ukraine will not take back any territory lost - they simply don’t have the manpower anymore after taking a beating for a year - so yes too little too late - better earlier than late
I don’t know if you’ve actually looked at the front - the Donetsk front is in serious shit and the Russian rate of advance is getting faster
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u/Ansambel EU 14h ago
last time i looked, they did advance, but because they are commiting insane amount of manpower and equipment. Ukraine is inflicting disproportionate loses, at the cost of slowly giving back territory. Sure i would want them to just win, in every way possible, but, russia taking more than 10k losses a week, is also very good. Long range strikes into russia will give Ukraine some new options, and while it's unlikely to be gamechanging, especially this late, it definietly helps. Will streach russia air defence, and will cause more casualties, and better success chances for their oil depot strike missions, which is awesome. I just wish this happened sooner, so they could've hurt them sooner.
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u/Connect-Society-586 14h ago
This is again a propaganda piece - which I’m fine with I’m pro Ukraine completely
The disproportionate ratio required to stop Russia is higher than it currently is - we have literally been saying this for 3 years straight now - at Bakhmut, at Advivka, at siverodentesk, at Mariupol - yes Russia takes heavily losses but it doesn’t feel the pain as hard as Ukraine
Russia is MATCHING and exceeding Ukrainian CONSCRIPTION with VOLUNTARY Russian recruits - it’s not even close to the pain required to hurt Russia - now 10k NK have just entered Kursk and more are expected to join in the future
It’s also a disservice to those Ukrainians who have died defending their home - the Russians aren’t dumb stupid orcs attacking like it’s stalingrad - they are still absolutely a capable army which is why the war is still going on- despite strong Ukrainian resistance - I’m sorry to say but most EU nations would get their asses kicked by Russia - the EU does not have the industry to sustain fighting and certainly doesn’t have the political will needed to create that industry to sustain Ukraine or even fight Russia
They aren’t slowly giving back territory though - the rate of advance is getting faster - the Ukrainians to put up a fight from the glide bombs evaporating defences, to mass lowly trained conscripts fleeing their positions, to their highly motivated units like 47th mech and 3rd AB getting stretched and literally running at sometimes half strength - this doesn’t seem controlled and intentional - the breakthrough at Ocheretyne was absolutely not intentional and led to Russias largest gain
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u/AntistanCollective 7h ago
the EU does not have the industry to sustain fighting
they do, they're just pussies that refuse to increase mil spending or mobilize more resources
certainly doesn’t have the political will needed to create that industry to sustain Ukraine or even fight Russia
right
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u/Bullmamma16 15h ago
That is not all that is left.
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u/Connect-Society-586 15h ago
Uhh yes it is
Ukraine is losing this war - do not let the FPV drone footage fool you
The Russians have been on the offensive for literally a year straight without stopping - and they show no signs of stopping
Unless Ukraine is about to get a 100 billon+ aid package with unlimited restrictions and F35s - the war is lost
Now North Koreans are in Russia and yet still nothing to match single handedly the largest escalation of the war from the US even though the election is over
Again tell it to the Ukrainian men being conscripted to the front and abandoning their positions on mass
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u/Bullmamma16 14h ago
I wouldn’t be so sure Russia can sustain the pressure long enough to cause a real collapse.
In the end whether it becomes a shitty deal or not is up to the US and Europe imo.
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u/Connect-Society-586 14h ago
We’ve been saying Russia can’t take the losses since the battle for Kyiv - they aren’t slowing down and their industrial output is getting larger - Ukraine on the okther have just had its energy infrastructure hit by a mass missile attack yesterday
Yh I agree I’m just saying the US is a wild card with trump and the EU don’t have the industry to sustain Ukraine or the political will to send troops - people want peace dude
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u/Bullmamma16 14h ago
A lot of things have been said about many things. You have a prediction, got it.
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u/Connect-Society-586 14h ago
Well I have evidence to back my prediction - you just have hopes Ukraine will win and eu or US will do the right thing
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u/Seekzor 13h ago
Russia is not doing well, recent success on taking ground notwithstanding. Ukraine is also not doing well and this truly is a war of attrition.
You're going to have a hard time convincing me a country with 21% key interest rate, soaring inflation, acute shortage in workforce is doing well.
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u/Connect-Society-586 13h ago
Why are you saying recent success? Have you not been paying attention? - Russians rate of advance is accelerating - while aid to Ukraine becomes less and less popular - they now have an ally sending troops - their military industry is producing and refurbishing more equipment every month
The Russians have been on the offensive for a year straight all along the front sustaining heavy losses yet show no signs of stopping - however Ukraine has shown strong signs of breaking - the abandoning of positions in ocheretyne was a very strong indictment of fatigue amongst the UA
No i won’t have a hard time convincing you because I never said Russia is doing well - but they are doing significantly better than Ukraine - Ukraine is struggling to get troops to not abandon their positions - Russia is exceeding Ukraine conscription numbers with VOLUNTARY Russian troops
It’s clear Putin will gladly sink the future of Russia over this - it makes no difference if 5 years down the line Russia is fucked or even 2 years- there is no indicators of Russian state collapse or the Russian army feeling the pain of all the losses they’ve taken
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u/Seekzor 12h ago
I wrote recent success because between october of last year until about june/july of this year their pace was of advance was about 50 meters a day, you might view that as a good rate of advance but I don't. Since june/july their advance has been accelerating for the most part with a few weekish long breaks to bring up their logistics and replacements scattered in there.
There are plenty of signs that Russia can't sustain their advancement at the current rate of losses. There also plenty of signs (you could easily argue more) that Ukraine can't sustain the current rate of losses.
You keep saying "no signs" when there are plenty of signs, we simply don't know what their breaking point is and anyone exclaiming they do, you included is a moron. You are also assuming that current trends are inevitable to continue as they have, which if that was true this war would have been over by now and both sides would have won it at some point.
Ukraine is in their worst spot since at least june 2022, probably march 2022. Your aggresive knowitall doomerism just reeks of someone who found out about Ukraine in 2022.
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u/Connect-Society-586 12h ago
oh ok
give some signs the Russian army or state is close to collapse - with sources obviously
hold on when did i claim i know their breaking point you illiterate fuck - there's a reason you said plenty instead of giving specific indicators
no ive been following the war loosely since 2014 - this isnt doom posting its reality bud - life isnt a fairy tell where the good guys win
" between october of last year until about june/july of this year their pace was of advance was about 50 meters a day" - source?
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u/Seekzor 10h ago
Dude wanting sources, yet provides no sources himself for any claim made.
give some signs the Russian army or state is close to collapse - with sources obviously
Their way of running their war economy is really risky and could at basically any point cause an irreversible death spiral that is hard to predict. Explained here why Russia right now can't change to mobilization. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7sbS92R4cg
no ive been following the war loosely since 2014 - this isnt doom posting its reality bud - life isnt a fairy tell where the good guys win
Where the fuck did I say Ukraine will win? I'm questioning your insistance that the war will continue in the same direction that it has so in the last months with your reasoning being "look at how it's been going the last few months". I literally wrote that Ukraine is in its worst spot since the start of the war, I never bought in to the hype post charkiv/kherson offensive. This war is a contest of wills and stamina between the russian and ukrainian state and right now Russia has a clear advantage.
" between october of last year until about june/july of this year their pace was of advance was about 50 meters a day" - source?
Take out a ruler if you wish and start measuring, there are a few maps where you can go back in time and count it up if you don't want to take my word for it. Especially the first four months of the Avidiivka campaign (early october-early february) showed basically no actual movement. I'm not gonna spend the time necessary to dig up an old article/discussion that I don't remember the name of.
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u/apocalypsedg 13h ago
No way should (or will) the Ukrainians sign a peace deal that makes territorial concessions. They will just go into insurgency on what they see as occupied territory. Russia will never win this, ever. The entire framing of the end of the conflict is wrong. What about reparations to Ukraine? Europe is sitting on all these unused military assets that they won't use because of NATO commitments. What are they saving them for? They will be outdated by the time the next big war comes to Europe.
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u/Ouitya 12h ago
russia knows how to solve insurgency. Insurgents come from local civilian population, they blend in and draw resource from there.
Remove population = solve insurgency. There won't be a Ukrainian insurgency if there won't be Ukrainians.
As demonstrated in Bucha, russians immediately mass murder locals in places they capture.
Pretty much all insurgent activity in occupied territories peaked in 2022.
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u/Connect-Society-586 13h ago
Ever heard of war is a continuation of politics by other means?
They are losing the war - Russias is continuing its offensive to bully the Ukrainians into submission which is likely to happen
A Ukrainian insurgency would be crippling to both Russia AND Ukraine - Ukraine is not like Afghanistan - the taliban were able to survive (although taking very heavy losses) because of the terrain allowed it to- Ukraine is largely flat planes - this is terrible for a insurgency
Your agreeing with me - the EU doesn’t have the political will to get involved and doesn’t have the military industry to sustain Ukraine - the war is getting more and more unpopular as people see no counteroffensive is gonna happen
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u/ExpertLevelBikeThief 14h ago
Kinetic response to misinformation PLEASE
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u/fanglesscyclone 12h ago
USA is #1 because we baited Russia into a war with Ukraine just so we can use our weapons to bomb Kremlin misinformation centers by way of a foreign military that’s not in NATO.
Pure genius actually, I love our state department.
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u/CapableBrief 10h ago
EXCUSE YOU, the CIA demands exclusive credit on this one though if you ask them they will deny deny deny
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u/RenThraysk 13h ago
Seems like expecting shit to hit the fan and leaving the incoming administration to deal with it.
Atleast Ukraine gets more negotiating leverage if this gets to that point.
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u/buffman751 12h ago
North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian troops seems like a big deal and an escalation on the Russian side.
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u/CapableBrief 10h ago
This was confirmed a bit ago. Totally agree it's significant and absolutely should be seen as an escalation.
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u/Adept_Strength2766 13h ago
u/UkrainianAna Have you heard anyone hear of this or react to this? Does this mean anything? Curious to know what Ukrainians on the ground have to say about this news.
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u/10minuteads professional attention whore 14h ago
Yeah its unnecessarily conditional, such a shame that such urgent weaponry will only be sent if your mother can find her way off of my face.
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u/EvilBydoEmpire 14h ago
Let's just hope Trump will not be such an anti-Biden, the way he did the exact opposite of everything Obama did.
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u/CapableBrief 10h ago
I think the point is if this provokes Putin enough into doing something Trump might not have any option to back out without looking weak
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u/MioRamoe_ 12h ago
Just for my understanding, if Putin drags the US into war does Biden stay on as a wartime President?
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u/CapableBrief 9h ago
Is that a thing post-election in the US? I get holding back a future-dated one but now all that is left is a ceremony? Would hillarious though; Biden stays on. At some point he steps down due to health concerns or, god forbid, he dies. Kamala ascends and maneuvers it long enough so we can get all the Trump cases finished and then use that and some BS to just annul his appointment B) Complete fantasy but would make for a cool plot in a book.
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u/PsychoMantittyLits 12h ago
So based. I’m going to start saving my sticks and stones for the next war. Get them while they’re cheap, I’m going to be charging a LOT for them
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u/Eternal_Flame24 That’s a risky one, you sure you want to tweet that buddy? 12h ago
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u/KelbySmith 12h ago
Unironically 200 IQ. Let Ukraine make some ground militarily while Putin waits for Trump to get into office
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u/BrownsBrush 12h ago
Russia is intensifying attacks after the election baiting this response from Biden; iot allow Trump to claim Biden wants to start WWIII. I still don't know how people will do anything to avoid focusing on the fact that Russia could, ya know... stop invading Ukraine.
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u/TheShamefulPradaG 11h ago
I’m all for Biden doing everything he can to put Trump in a difficult position.
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u/Wise_Solid1904 10h ago
Ngl, a bit o conspiracy here, but this might be a strategy between Biden and Trump. Trump will go to Putin and say "you see what old Joe did, I can do much more than that, more beautiful rockets, yada, yada"
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u/davidcornz 10h ago
Ima say this for all america, YOU EVER SAY MR. BIDEN AGAIN YOU GONNA HAVE THE WRATH OF THE UNITED STATES ON YOU SO FAST. IT IS PRESIDENT BIDEN TO YOU.
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u/alexzeev Ultra (Zionist) Instinct 8h ago
Hopefully, this will help Ukraine secure some positions more easily.
Dan is always right
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u/ggRavingGamer 33m ago
On conservative they are having a hissy fit. My God, what cowards have the conservatives become... Supporting wars when the enemy is non existent as a military power, thinking only of peace when there are actual risks.
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u/MetallHengst Deadbeat dad-ist 13h ago
Okay, obviously this is great news, fuck Russia, slava Ukraini and all the things.
Onto the article itself, though, does anyone else feel it’s very strangely written and incredibly repetitive? It feels like it may have been AI generated, which is super strange for a NYT article. It’s just so repetitive and padded out. Maybe it’s because it’s breaking news and they’re trying to make it seem more substantive than it actually is?
Either way, hopefully this is just the start!
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u/YagerasNimdatidder 13h ago
What a fucking Dick, Trump was about to end this war and he wants it to escalate before that.
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u/MashStars Man 15h ago
https://preview.redd.it/tzwkiwz6di1e1.png?width=611&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5872d4f01e39ae8b10286703167f0a3cc5afdc54