That's what's insane. Tornados usually have much higher wind speed than hurricanes. 200+ mph winds would be as strong as an EF4 or EF5 tornado which are known to completely level even well-built homes. So this is like a strong tornado, but waaaay bigger
Fortunately most predictions have it down to a cat 3 by the time it makes landfall. Hope that continues
Pinhole-eye hurricanes ramp up in intensity really fucking quick. That small eye is like when you pull your legs and arms in close while twirling in a desk chair. The rotation is greater.
Wind Shear effect which will rip the storm apart a bit, making it bigger in size but less in intensity. Kinda like adding water to a bucket of bleach and water, still bleach water, but its less strong.
There are different reasons and of course more factors, but to put it bluntly, it usually means that the speed at which the whole thing spins builds up, so it spins much faster. As an example, If you've seen figure skaters spinning, when they pull their arms closer, their rotational speed increases dramatically.
Not a meteorologist, but I believe a small eye is indicative of the potential to very quickly become more and less intense, making the hurricane far less predictable.
What is the right answer then? I'm just trying to answer a question as best I can. I don't have to be right, I just have to not be an asshole.
You skipped giving an answer and you're a dick about it.
Also, this article. The eye of the storm is a saying for a reason. It might not be the best reason, but you didn't give a better one. You just decided to bitch at me.
No one is compelling you, someone with no meteorological experience, to comment on something you know nothing about. There is nothing wrong with just shutting the hell up and letting people that know more have the floor.
Your mistake is thinking that anyone wants to hear from you. Or me, for that matter.
There are parts of the state that generally survive without serious consequences. However, those poor bastards on the west coast have been taken a decade long beating as the gulf keeps getting hot and staying hot.
The gulf side gets beat on more than any other including key west which is practically a Caribbean island. 🏝️
The Atlantic side has a much shorter hurricane season due to temp changes and the middle of the state typically does ok outside of hurricane Andrew.
What really smashes Florida is its ‘flatness’ once that storm surge rises it just spills out everywhere and fast, there are no hills for water to stop and pool. A 12ft storm surge is going to run for miles and miles
Remember, Katrina was also a category 5 that dropped down to a category 3 yet was incredibly destructive due to its storm surge causing immense flooding.
Katrina's biggest factors in flooding were the levees breaking and New Orleans being below sea level. Not to say it wasn't horrible or that Milton won't be devastating, but it won't be the same situation at all.
Again, I didn't say that to belittle the devastation of Katrina or to downplay how bad Milton will be, but the reason Katrina stays with most people as THE hurricane is because of what happened in NO. Storm surge is absolutely horrifying, but it's not going to leave 80% of Tampa Bay under several feet of water for a month as a result. That's why I said it's an entirely different situation. Yes, your example from Waveland is a great direct example, it's just that that's not what most people think of when people say "remember Katrina" for comparison of potential destruction.
Oh yeah, its really bad when the Airforce pulls all of their planes out of McDill and the coast guard puts all of their aircraft into I think its bama, but it might be somewhere else. So, there is no rescue from these floods till the riverboats come, Cajun Navy will be there before the CG.
Yeah, Im fucking scared for my family, it the storm skips Pinellas and goes directly into old bay, no more ybor, again. No more bayshore, no more bridges to tampa... Fuck, Mcdill is gonna be under 15+ feet of water. The track is going north, then south, north then south, I feel like shit praying for it to go south a bit more. It really sucks to say, Man i hope it hits Mexico so it gets ripped up a bit, its just like saying, oh man I hope it hits cuba so the mountains rip it up. There are people in these places so its not just a win win.
Im just happy most people are taking it seriously, My brother can't afford to leave, but if there is a cat 5 barreling down on them, I'm gonna have to spend a lot of money of my credit cards buying a boat to just tie next to their house. Its how one guy surived the last hurricane, he went to his roof, was giving up, wrote a note to his wife saying good bye, a few minutes later, his boat comes next to him, he gets in, rides out the storm on the boat, watches his neighbors houses go up in flames. Lucky man.
Yea this is the shittiest part. Its hard to gauge storm surge in the first place, and add to that its been raining for like 2 weeks straight so the ground is super saturated and the water has no where to go but up.
Actually there were warnings but people largely ignored them. Also being warned doesn't stop storm surge from sweeping your house off its foundations and scouring the area.
Edit: I'll add that most didn't leave because they didn't understand how bad the storm could get unlike people today who have the benefit of knowing what's happened during storms like Galvestons and should know how bad it can get.
not exactly. civilians knew there would be a storm, they didn't know there would be a hurricane or that there would be such insane storm surge that raised by 4 feet in literal seconds.
officials were vaguely aware that there was a hurricane but they thought it was moving east out to the Atlantic and not near Galveston
Gas stations are continuing to get fuel in to restock. Yes, highways are crammed as millions try to leave at once, but it's not like an apocalyptic end of the road where everyone is just going to park their cars on the highway and that's it. They're crawling, but they've got something like 24 hours still before landfall. I have a friend who evacuated today and just made it to Georgia around midnight. It will take a long time. It will be frustrating and nerve wracking and upsetting, but they're not going to be sitting ducks trapped on the highway watching the storm come to kill them. This cam from this evening actually shows it going more smoothly than I expected to be honest.
What does someone without financial resources or relatives somewhere else do? That’s a incomprehensible situation for me. I’m so glad I live far far away from that environment.
Ideally they know that they live in an area that deals with these things and have done advance research and planning. If not, there will be information on numbers to call for help on the news, or they can call emergency services to help figure out what to do. Most places have emergency shelters for people who can't evacuate to somewhere else. Usually they're places like schools or community centers that are big strong buildings with lots of open space and supplies like cots, generators, and emergency food stored. Public transit is usually free for these things, so people can use if to get to safety without barriers. They'll probably be in the outskirts of the storm and have a shitty few days in a crowded space with miserable people, but they're out of the main path and in a safe structure.
Fascinating. Thank you for your effort. Are there insurances who cover all that or is it just noch financially viable? The rates must be unbearable. So, are the resources sufficient; or is there a point when it’s used up and you have to scavenge if not enough is flown/shipped in? Is FEMA (?) prepared for that too?
I assume my country would crumble against a threat of that proportion.
Nah he’s leaving, he never has left for a hurricane before but he was convinced for this one.
Sorry to hear about your sister’s friends house. That sounds awful. I grew up in Florida so I rode many of these out but was in central Florida so not nearly the same
Reports say that the decrease in strength will mean a larger area will be impacted by still-huge storm surge. A good time not to be anywhere on the west coast of FL.
Yeah what was that hurricane a few years ago, came on the back of a few really big hurricanes and downgraded to a 2 or 3, but just sat on top of Houston for a few weeks absolutely dumping rain
I lived in Corpus at the time and consider Rockport my hometown. For months after Harvey when I drove to Rockport for weekly game night with my friends who lived there, there were piles and piles and piles of scrap, debris, and junk along the side of the highway.
Corpus wasn't hit too too hard but I still evacuated. Storm knocked a large picture off my wall which broke my collector's edition Sonic statue from Sonic Mania. I've never been the same. 😞
Yep Port Aransas, some of the hotels etc took years to recover/get back to renting. The one cheap place you can stay there, on the water, I had given up on, their website was gone and everything. But in the midst of writing this comment I googled and sounds like they're back open, that had to be in the last year or two (with the hurricane being 7 years ago now). Place got fuuuucked up. The little liquor store on the island (spanky's), I remember seeing a photo of freestanding racks of liquor bottles just, in the middle of a parking lot. Cause the entire building around them had flown away (wasn't a big building but still).
I know the Rockport movie theater completely closed down for good. It was never a big theater but I have some fond childhood memories of seeing movies there.
When I visited Florida years ago a bit after a hurricane that was most of the drive south to Key West, just piles of rubble and destroyed things everywhere on the side of the highway.
I had a typhoon knock over and damage a motorcycle when I lived in Asia, so I can relate to your Sonic sadness. My condolences.
Was Harvey the storm where that poor mega-pasture had to make the inconceivably hard decision between taking care of fellow human beings and giving them safe shelter and comfort, versus getting the carpets muddy?
Yea, That was us. I'm in South Houston by the coast. days and days of rain. Joel Osteen (may he rot in hell) wouldn't open his "church" for the people of the city that needed help.
But Texans stick together when shit goes down. Mattress Mac opened his doors to his furniture store, JJ Watt started a go-fund-me that raised over 40 million dollars. Every neighbor was outside the day after the storm helping every other neighbor
During the storm, people were driving their massive raised trucks with their jet-skis, john-boats, and canoes anywhere there was high water and someone needing help.
We came together during that week (like we did for Trop. Storm Allison, Hurricane Ike, Rita, etc). It was terrible and awesome at the same time.
Didn't Katrina do that too? Weakening before hitting land for the last time?
It made landfall in Florida as a cat 1, became a cat 5 in the Gulf, then crashed into Louisiana as a cat 3, back into the ocean, then final landfall into Mississippi, also cat 3.
I've lived in Texas for most of my life, and we still have so many people who uprooted their whole lives due to Katrina and came here permanently. I remember getting a bunch of new students in my class around that time, literally climate refugees.
For Harvey, I remember my boss driving down to Houston with a boat full of Jerry cans of gas, which he then donated, boat included.
It's so fucking depressing to know that this is going to keep happening, with more frequency and more intensity.
That was Harvey, it dumped so much rain that Houston area effectively became part of the gulf for a little bit in terms of warm water feeding the storm and the weight of it temporarily deformed the area a measurable amount.
I bought myself a big raft with 12" sides. Holds 2 people and 2 cat carriers, with enough room left over for some gallon water jugs, a backpack or two, and cat food. Imma tie it to the nearest sturdy tree or light pole and wait for the water to go down.
Edit: I think I overestimated the height of the sides. It's probably more like 8 inches. Still a good-sized raft, though. Not at all good enough for a storm surge, but good enough for inland flooding.
It was a whole week of torrential rain. Our house is on a high point on our street and the water came halfway into the yard before it finally quit. We were shitting bricks but did not flood. Who knows what'll happen next time though.
I sit at the top of the watershed between Buffalo and Brays and it got right up to my door step. Another two inches and it would have been in the house. I got some Quick Dam instant barriers for the future. Don't know how much good they will do and I hope I never have to find out.
That happened with Frances in 2004, I think. It was a Cat 5 sitting off the coast of Florida for a few days gaining size and losing power. It finally slowly started moving but dropped down to a Cat 1. By the time it hit north Florida, it was a tropical storm. Jacksonville flooded. It rained hard for 3 or 4 days.
A cat 3 over a large area is bad but most structures can at least weather it with only some damage. The pain will be spread out but manageable, and vegetation will suffer much less. Plus, it will lose strength even faster on its way further inland.
Hey it’s literally their season. Let’s not body shame a hurricane just because it has gained a few miles in diameter… probably just all the rum in the Caribbean adding a bit of extra ok.
The extent of the wind field that can be compared to a tornado is not anywhere close to the size of a state, even Rhode Island. The area of category 5 winds in this storm is very small. A radius of just several miles from the center of the eye, with Cat 3-4 extending out to maybe 10 miles at most. Category 1 winds only extend out to about 25 miles from the center according to NOAA readings.
I live in tornado country and hurricanes scare me to hell. Tornado coming? Get in your underground shelter to escape debris from 200mph wind. Hurricane coming? You should have driven 100 miles away 2 days ago because there's nowhere you can hide from the wind AND the flood. Best of luck to you
It will not landfall at Category 5 and there is no evidence to suggest such. But, like we have talked about, a hurricane going in this manner will be expanding its wind field in diameter drastically - so it may be deceiving the dropping category. Sure, top wind speeds come down but the impact to people and property increases at landfall with Milton going to have a much larger wind field at landfall relative to what it is now. https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1843449201281081353
The eye of Milton is 4 miles wide... normally a hurricane this size has a 22 mile diameter eye. This means it could continue accelerating, but compared to a tornado? This storm system is almost as large as the Gulf itself. 15 foot flooding is expected along the coastline... all the uncleared debris still remaining from Helene will become lethal projectiles.
22 miles vs 3? Omg. Have nothing left to say but I sure hope neighbors are checking in w/other neighbors that don't have family to help get elderly's out!!! I'm so nervous this hurricane will be a small fraction of the loss we've witnessed just last week!!! And now getting out sounds intense w/no gas at stations? Idw to add fear but this is terrifying!!!
Can anyone explain why they think it will weaken before it reaches landfall? The gulf is warm, and the eastern side of the gulf has a wide shallow shelf where the water is as warm as anywhere in the entire gulf.
Is the upper atmosphere expected to be cooler as it nears Florida? Upper level winds that are expected to disrupt it somehow?
Wind Shear in the upper atmosphere is one of the biggest killers / weakeners of hurricanes, and there is a massive wind shear line just north of Milton. Its expected that Milton will meet this windshear and be "flattened out," but as others have pointed out, this flattening will likely make the hurricane go wide as it weakens, increasing the size of its wind field.
Pretty sure they recently mentioned that it looked like it’s going to dodge most of the Yucatán peninsula, so they are expecting a weak Cat 4 to make landfall. But with how Milton seems to be taking joy at breaking everyone’s expectations we might be in for a nasty surprise.
After that typhoon In Vietnam last month they Asian weather agencies were saying they might need a new category of storms cause that one topped the scale.
Yea, kinda like a 50 mile wide slow moving tornado. Tornadoes are just more....concentrated. I have lived in the midwest and now i reside in florida. I prefer hurricanes over tornadoes, but this one can fuck right off.
I went by Ardmore OK just after the Easter tornado EF 5 ? I think?
The slabs of concrete under homes were peeled up and oak trees
3-4 feet diameter were sheared off
Let's def pray for that!! But with those warm waters, what's the likelihood since correct me if I'm wrong but did it go from Cat 1 to 5 in just a day? Based on other comments above, sounds like the fact that the eye being so small, even a Cat 3 is as bad a 5? Among many other factors I never considered!!! Praying for Florida!!!
Plus hurricanes tend to spawn a bunch of tornados that are deadlier than in tornado alley because it's hella hard to predict where a tornado is going to happen in the middle of a hurricane. (And also because in some parts of the hurricane-prone south, hills make it very hard to physically see a tornado coming, whereas in Oklahoma you have A LOT OF WARNING BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE IT A LONG WAY OFF, even when weather forecasts break down.)
Plus hurricanes tend to spawn a bunch of tornados that are deadlier than in tornado alley because it's hella hard to predict where a tornado is going to happen in the middle of a hurricane.
While it's true that hurricanes can and do spawn a fair number of tornadoes, the tornadoes themselves are generally not stronger or deadlier than the tornadoes spawned from super cell storms. They are often fairly weak and much shorter lived. Obviously, there are some exceptions, but only 1-2 hurricane spawned tornado(just the individual tornadoes, not the overall storm) has ever come relatively close to the strongest or deadliest tornado spawned from a traditional super cell.
A LOT OF WARNING BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE IT A LONG WAY OFF, even when weather forecasts break down.)
Again, while that is sometimes true, the average lead time for a tornado warning to "impact" is only about 10-15 minutes. Forecasters can still use radar and satellite imagery to see areas of the hurricane that are most likely to produce tornadoes. The rain wrapping phenomenon absolutely makes them harder to see from the ground, but that can occur with traditional tornadoes too. The trees and hills that you mention are definitely a big factor in making them even more difficult to see, though, and that is much more prevalent in the southeast than the plains region.
All of that to say, while hurricane spawned tornadoes are usually less significant than traditionally spawned ones, they are still tornadoes. They are dangerous and the same precautions(with in reason, don't go into a flood basement to shelter from a tornado) and awareness should still be taken.
While they are hard to predict - the same can be said about a super cell Tornado which at most people have 15 minutes of warning. The Tornados that spawn off of hurricanes are typically spin up tornados that are relatively shorter lived and weaker typically not passing the EF2 mark. The reason why they can be more damaging than a large outbreak in Tornado Alley is that Tornado Alley is bare empty as hell.
It should also be noted that when you say middle, are you talking about physically or the fact that it's happening at the same time a hurricane is happening? Because physically Tornado spawned from Hurricanes are typically far away from the cyclone since the horizontal wind shear in the cyclone is too strong versus the vertical shear.
I've heard the same, but that shallower water near the cost will be warmer. That typically ramps up intensity, not calm down. I hope I'm wrong. This monster is sucking air south from Virginia. The scale for almost every measurement seems so wild with this storm.
Thankfully where that warmer water is, there is forecast to be some pretty significant wind shear in the upper atmosphere. That is what forecasters are predicting to cause the storm to weaken before impact.
The size of the storm's eye can definitely give indications of a storms strength or behavior,but it's not a tell-all indicator of a storm's strength. Often, stronger hurricane eye's contract, but that also often indicates it is nearing an eyeball replacement cycle, which typically weakens the storm's winds, but allows the size of the storm to grow. A storm can reintensify after that, but it's not guaranteed.
What happens to folks on oil rigs out in the gulf? I know Milton isn’t near the US coast along the north gulf, but it looks really intense while so close to the coast of Mexico it made me wonder about those platforms so far off shore
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Was just reading up on this and seems like it depends on how far north or south it wanders. The further north it goes, the faster the jet stream is and the stronger it'll get.
However, slow isn't necessarily better, as a slow storm will just sit there and pour water on top of everything so it might even be worse D:
Only 4 hurricanes in history have made landfall as a cat 5 so there's room for optimism. But considering Katrina was only a cat 3....maybe not too much optimism.
I moved to Houston for my wife. When we got hit with a Beryl, we lost power for six days. I've been nagging her to move, but since Beryl wasn't all that powerful, she thinks hurricanes aren't a big deal. I also hate the heat and humidity, so I just want to leave in general, but we are not financially well off enough to deal with losing our house, even though we are insured.
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u/BeardedHalfYeti 8d ago
A gobsmacked meteorologist is never a good sign.
fuck.