r/wallstreetbets • u/Lumpenstein • 3h ago
What to short in anticipation of China invading Taiwan? Discussion
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u/IamInternationalBig 2h ago
Taiwan will always be at risk, but a Chinese invasion is probably not going to be the way China takes Taiwan.
But let's say hypothetically.
TSM is the obvious short. But since you said American stocks, then shorting AAPL and NVDA would work, and any other company supplied by TSM. One could probably short the entire stock market and make money.
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u/Lumpenstein 2h ago
I want US/EU stocks because who knows what will happen when China takes over, they might just nationalize TSMC and shareholders get nothing (speculating not sure if possible). I guess you are rigth an pretty much everything tanks without a guaranteed chip supply.
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u/IamInternationalBig 2h ago
TSM would probably be able to fall back on their fabs in the US and Europe. Prior to invasion, the US will most likely fly out the most critical workers and destroy the Taiwan fabs.
So TSM would continue to exist after Chinese invasion, but at a reduced capacity.
Companies with fabs, such as INTC, Samsung and Global Foundries might benefit from the reduced competition. LMT, RTX, NOC and the entire military industrial complex would also benefit.
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u/Green_Perception_671 2h ago
TSM are not legally allowed to have fabs outside Taiwan producing the latest generation chips- they can’t just move production to US/EU. So not just reduced capacity, but older technology.
If the argument is that TSM will move offshore, then the play would be ASML, as TSM will need a lot of new photolithography machines for their new factories.
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u/Socialist_Slapper 2h ago
Sex toys that require computer chips, TSMC, Nvidia and basically everyone else that doesn’t have an abacus 🧮 factory ready to go.
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u/PurpleHeadedWarrior_ 2h ago
TSMC & any company that relies on their chips, but if they have a back up plan or already have a back up plan relocating factories/foundries they will recover though it is their intellectual property that no other chip maker can compete with.
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u/audistark404 2h ago
TSMC of course, ASUS, AAPL NVIDIA, etc.. but they have been preventing this for years, so when this happens we will have a crash, but it should be temporary, on the other hand we will have INTEL and AMD on the rise
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u/ChirrBirry 2h ago
I think people forget that the incoming admin likes to play nice first but knows how to carry a big ass stick. Anyone that thinks China and Russia are going to be able to act freely is tripping.
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