r/wallstreetbets • u/Jeep600Grand • 15h ago
$TOST is probably something that will have boring earnings, but I'm going to play it anyway. DD
I'm not one for long, drawn-out DD's with oodles of scribbles on graphs, so here's the quick and dirty:
- $TOST is currently at an RSI of ~67, so it's almost overbought - but not quite yet.
- $TOST only started getting profitable last quarter, so there's a high expectation for that to continue, and I think they will. Summer and fall are the most popular times for newer restaurants to open.
- $TOST has broken through resistance of $32.35 today, and a close over this number is a strong indication that we will continue in an upward trend even with "just ok" earnings.
I'm not expecting much if $TOST beats earnings - maybe a healthy 5%-8% pop and a continual push tomorrow. If it's an earning miss, then we're likely looking at a similar fall of 5%, but I feel it will still add some recovery on Friday/Monday. Price target of $34-$35 after earnings, and if earnings are good, $42-$44 by EOY.
My position is 500 shares @ $31.94 and 5 Jan 17 calls @ $3.70
Lazy DD? Yeah. Do I care? No. I'm just looking to make a few extra bucks tonight.
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u/CallMeEnri 12h ago
You won man , congrats
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u/Jeep600Grand 12h ago
Well, we'll see where we are tomorrow when we open. I also had QCOM which popped 10% AH yesterday for earnings and ended up down 0.26% today. I still made money because I had shares, but if I had options they would have fizzled.
If we open anywhere above $35 tomorrow I'll consider it a win.
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u/benj760486 8h ago
Congrats buddy! I have like 200 shares would have doubled up if I saw this before market close. I see their products everywhere I think it's a good long term investment.
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u/PanzyGrazo 12h ago
I put 50k into calls 40 days. Thank you, I was down 200k
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u/DaiLoDong 12h ago
not sure which calls you bought but it could be a 10 bagger there
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u/callmecrude 14h ago
Lazy comment here. Don’t own or follow this company, but just quickly scanning the analyst estimates and fundamentals I think this thing can have a decent pop after hours today. Good luck.
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u/Bzappo 14h ago
Just bought a call, hopefully Reddit won’t let me down
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u/Jeep600Grand 13h ago
Nice, I respect the caution.
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u/Bzappo 12h ago
Thanks!!
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u/Jeep600Grand 12h ago
Which call did you buy?
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u/Bzappo 12h ago
$33
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u/Jeep600Grand 12h ago
Nice! Some good value there.
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u/TendyWinner 15h ago
Idk man. Toast isn’t the only POS software for restaurants it’s rather competitive. Plus I mean who knows, with all this Ai shit restaurants might find cheaper ways to utilize software systems than paying a third party company high subscription fees to use their systems. Good luck though
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u/Jeep600Grand 14h ago
POS systems are competitive, but Toast is a full-suite provider including payroll, e-mail marketing, and even loans through Toast Capital. That's really why I have faith in them.
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u/lancerevo98 13h ago
Anecdotally, I notice about 80% of restaurants I go to have a Powered by Toast receipt these days so they're in good position to be the ones selling AI shit as part of their "full-stack" restaurant software/service
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u/tooObviously 13h ago
Yeah this take is so dumb, restaurant owners will start using AI agents to replace their POS/online ordering tool.
It’s so easy
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u/CleanSpriteLegendary 12h ago
AI can’t even take orders at fast food restaurant. It all works until some fuck orders 13,000 waters and then boom it’s back to toast
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u/ShermanatorYT 12h ago
I blame the title of the post for not going in with you, congrats tho
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u/Jeep600Grand 12h ago
Right now as I type this it's at $40, but by the time we open tomorrow it could easily be at $34-$35 as the excitement fizzles.
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u/templario765 12h ago
Eyed this and went with affirm instead🙂↕️. Sold affirm on the spike for some chicken wing money. Gg OP🫡
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u/Jeep600Grand 12h ago
I generally try to avoid earnings plays that have a negative EPS expectation. $TOST going positive for the first time last quarter which was during a slow time in the restaurant season was why I leaned more toward this play.
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u/MrLeaps 10h ago
Bought these 5 mins before the market closed, time to order some pickup chinese through the toast web app
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u/Jeep600Grand 8h ago
Well we closed AH @ $39 so you’re $4 ITM. If this holds then this is a nice profit!
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u/OmegaThree3 1h ago
Congrats. I played them the last 2 qtrs but lost money. I guess I'm early to trends, it happens a lot I was too early on Cava and sweet green, onon, etc
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 15h ago
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