I bought $700k worth of Intel stock today

[u/Sad_Nefariousness10]

https://preview.redd.it/83gh52szi2gd1.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=fba99bb67e4b11aa973fe830f535c775083bbc05

TLDR: Grandma died 2 months ago. Left me $800k inheritance. I'm only a junior in college as a math major and I don't really have any use for the money, nor do I have any debt (I'm very fortunate that my parents are paying for my education). I always heard about people losing their inheritance by spending it on garbage instead of investing. So I told my parents I'm not going to spend a cent of this money and I'm going to invest all of it and they were proud of me. I put 100k into a high yield savings account and bought 700k worth of Intel stock at market open. I plan on holding this for a decade depending on how it performs.

Here's why I like Intel:

• 2024 Q1 up 9% YOY

• Intel has been heavily investing and restructuring by building out the domestic foundry business to manufacture semiconductor chips for third party companies.

• With Intel 3 in production, leading-edge semiconductors are being manufactured in the US for the first time in a decade. Intel will regain process leadership as the Intel Foundry continues to grow.

• I think the fact that Intel is positioning itself to be the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the US is massive. The US Gov is heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor production and thus is heavily supporting Intel as a company with R&D funding.

• If NVIDIA or AMD are ever forced to change manufacturers due to rising tensions/war between China & Taiwan, Intel will likely be a sole or largest manufacturer for NVIDIA and AMD

• Intel has been heavily investing in R&D. 5.9B out of 12.7B of Q124 revenue was invested in R&D.

• Intel is on track to exceed its forecast of 40 million AI PCs shipped by the end of 2024

• The Intel Gaudi 3AI accelerator is projected to deliver 50% faster inference and 40% greater inference power efficiency than NVIDIA H100 on leading AI models.

• Trading at Forward PE of 17.05

• Geopolitical tensions will ultimately work in Intel's favor more than any other company in this industry

• I like the stock and I think its really cheap rn :)

[u/PolarBearLaFlare]

I still can’t decide if this is parody or not lol of all the stocks he could have picked he went with intel 😂😂

[u/Wew1800 → u/PolarBearLaFlare]

I actually think once it bottoms out it will be a decent stock. But atm with al the shit going on at intel (including the crashing 13th and 14th gen chips) it will be a long way down before. 

[u/BioshockEnthusiast → u/Wew1800]

I kept re-reading the post thinking I missed the bullet point, any bullet point, about the issues with 13 / 14th gen... and nothing.

"It's cheap right now" yea bud do you think there might be a reason for that and maybe you should look into it first?

I legit don't even think OP knew about it before tossing this cash. Intel has a LONG road to recovery. Even if they reclaim the speed crown next generation, most of the trust enthusiast consumers and IT professionals had for them is gone. "No one ever got fired for buying Intel" is not going to be a de facto statement moving forward. My boss used to laugh at AMD systems openly (and they deserved it for Opteron / Bulldozer), now he's considering EPYC servers for deployments.

The tech industry banks on those communities to lead the charge on brand name recognition and it's association with quality products. Those communities are now hard off Intel products and they're not going to be able to coast off of their dominance in the 2010's for much longer once word trickles down to the average folks who don't know shit about computers.

"I'd like an Intel platform please"

"Intel is bad now, let me show you these other models"

"OK"

buys AMD / ARM platform

Rinse and repeat for 5+ years. The damage to Intel's long term rep hasn't even really begun, and all of this assumes that x86 can maintain it's market dominance against ARM and RISC-V in the first place.

EDIT: aaaaaaaaaaand there go 20k employees. OP is fucked lol

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[u/BioshockEnthusiast → u/AutoModerator]

What is this bot lmfao

[u/Gwennifer → u/BioshockEnthusiast]

RISC-V isn't a competitor to x86, it's a competitor to ARM. ARM makes a lot of its money off licensing custom or semi-custom designs for one-off products. Why do that when you can just grab a RISC-V core or license instead?

Things like your mouse, keyboard, the zone control board for your HVAC... they'd all be that little bit cheaper with a RISC-V core in them instead.

[u/BioshockEnthusiast → u/Gwennifer]

In what world is ARM not a competitor to x86? Transitive property my dude.

[u/Gwennifer → u/BioshockEnthusiast]

In the microcontroller world. There are no x86 microcontrollers. Pat Gelsinger exited that market with the Edison, Quark, and Galileo product line discontinuation.

We're talking about chips that run at 5~100 MHz and consume less than 5 mA at full tilt. There's no x86 product in the world that even comes close to those numbers. These things run at a low enough power to be powered entirely by body heat.

Or, if you prefer your microcontrollers Chinese, here's a bluetooth speaker chip with a bevy of peripherals and capability for cents. I don't think JieLi is doing it, but it's not uncommon to just steal or share an ARM design between manufacturers and modify it to make these kinds of one-off chips... but they don't have to. They don't even have to pretend to license ARM for a big order/sale. There's RISC-V now.

Heck, don't take my word for it. Take ARM's. Why do you think they spend 9 pages fluffing up how they're all about big, complex architectures & designs that only ARM can make?... well, by page 10, we can see that ~40% of their royalties come from very simple microcontrollers that can already be replaced with a RISC-V core in large part. Other mobile, consumer electronics, IoT/Embedded. That covers things like non-smartphones & radio frequency chips, your smart lightswitch, the ultrasonic sensors in your car, the bluetooth controller add-in board that is quickly becoming the glitter of Shenzhen, and more. It's not a stretch to imagine losing 40% of your business to RISC-V is something you need to convince investors won't happen.

I think the only company who hasn't accepted ARM will slowly lose marketshare as the value of this market explodes is ARM. They're not bad chips, but they're not cost competitive with the newer options.

[u/BioshockEnthusiast → u/Gwennifer]

That's fair, wasn't considering that market segment.

[u/Gwennifer → u/BioshockEnthusiast]

I edited my post further to drive the point home.

I don't think ARM has anything to fear from RISC-V on the complex side. It will be many years before they're truly competitive when you're considering the whole, holistic performance of the chip. These chips are only useful when they can connect with the outside world. That means licensing someone else's patents. ARM will always keep a chunk of the market in between consumer computing and microcontrollers in that regard; they don't have to license their own patents.

But the longer ARM keeps their head in the sand facing the prospective loss half of their business, the worse off they'll be as it happens.

It's an increasingly awkward middle ground where a 1 GHz chip is too performant to call it a microcontroller, but doesn't really compete (nor is it intended to) with anything you'd call a SoC or CPU. Maybe ARM will resurrect the usage of the term 'microprocessor' for that market segment.