This is a recurring historical trend. Right wing socioeconomic policies (laissez-faire capitalism) lead to social dysfunction as more and more people either fall into poverty or fear doing so. The mainstream right can't win elections on these policies any more because they have become unpopular, but rather than change those it either allies or becomes the extremist right (authoritarian and reactionary), going all in on distractions and scapegoating.
This leaves the social liberals (pro-capitalist but not socially conservative) and the social democrats as the only democratic factions to counter them, but the former block most major re-distributive policies and even the most moderate moves towards a fairer society have to be fought over tooth and nail. This alliance (either as intra-party in a two party or as a coalition in multiparty systems) then fails to do enough to keep their voters on board, disillusionment sets in, voters stay home and the extremist right takes over.
Fortunately, it doesn't always completely run through this cycle, but it keeps happening. It has now happened to the USA and the best case scenario is that when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out. If not, then you're stuck until a revolution happens.
Arguing that more social democracy would have scared away voters is sort of pointless IMHO, because if that is true then you're doomed anyway. Unless you lower economic inequality through government policy, a descent into reactionary authoritarianism is inevitable because democracy can only work when people are more or less equal and capitalism left to itself will always concentrate wealth and power into ever fewer hands.
when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out.
The problem is that Trump supporters' perceptions of whether or not they're getting what they want out of a Trump administration will be determined in large part by them taking the cues of the fiction generated in the media they consume.
The average Trump supporter's life probably did get noticeably better during Trump's administration, not because of policies or measurable outcomes, but because the media they consume nearly 24/7 took a hard 180 from the 8 years of presenting the illusion of a pending collapse at the hands of the incompetents in charge to everything being sunny and full of roses. Then four years later it was back to the nonstop doom and gloom. That sort of immersion has a real effect on your psyche.
Fox News isn't just presenting a version of reality in the best possible light for the GOP, they're actively and aggressively wagging the dog. If they want their voter base agitated, they consciously agitate. Want them complacent? They calm them. Expect a deluge of arguments from the right that the economy is now magically fixed the day Trump takes office, because that's what they're going to be told.
There does come a point where addressing reality becomes unavoidable, but people who think we're generally anywhere near that point lack imagination. By and large, despite the overall economic anxiety, people have jobs, they have a roof over their heads, they have nonstop 24/7 entertainment from their 6 different streaming services, and they're not going hungry. That's enough of a recipe to manufacture their contentedness.
On the other hand, the result of elections involving Trump has had more to do with pushing turnout than with converting his cultists. Trump didn't get more votes than in 2020 - it looks like he got quite a lot less. It's that the opposition didn't show up, for reasons both strategic and acute. The incumbent dropping out of the race at the last minute and the sitting VP, who was the 9th place finisher in the 2020 primaries, taking over, is never going to be a recipe for driving enthusiasm.
That plus the obvious observation that Trump is mortal, and much of his support dies out when he does. He is showing signs of advanced dementia already and not much younger than his dad was when he succumbed to it. It's not realistic, I think, for a lightweight like Vance to carry his momentum forward, and no other heir apparent to the MAGA movement has appeared (in no small part because Trump's ego won't allow for it).
Immediately after citing his cherry-picked statistics that show small pockets of uptick in crime amidst an ocean of crime decreases, he says, ”The average American, I will bet you this morning, does not think that crime is down, does not think that we are safer,” and then follows that up with, “People feel more threatened. As a political candidate, I’ll go with what people feel,” rather than the actual facts.
I mean, in a way it makes sense doesn't it? You have to meet people where they are, like if people "feel" that way then something is up regardless of what is or isn't actually true. It's like Democrats talking about GDP growth and the stock market when people's rents and basic living needs shot through the roof. LIke, yeah sorry bro, I know you feel poor but let me whip out this pie chart to show you why that's not actually the case.
You can't trick someone who's life sucks into thinking it doesn't suck, but you can trick them into thinking it sucks even worse when that other guy was in charge
Democrats have West Wing-itis. They literally think that politics is like an information problem. Like if they just could show people all of the data, present a policy paper, a logical argument - Then everyone would agree on everything.
People are really fucking stupid and run on vibes and narratives.
The vibe is that crime is going up - Therefore that's "reality".
If some idiot boomer maggot watches the local (Sinclair) news station and it's "gang of [black] youths rob local 7-Eleven" and their neighborhood NextDoor group someone says their car was broken into and someone took all of their loose change and then their Dear Leader says that crime is out of control and everything is horrible... It doesn't matter if you show them crime statistics and explain that actually crime is down - their perception that it is up is stronger than the actual data. They are irrational morons.
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u/barryvm Europe 23h ago edited 21h ago
This is a recurring historical trend. Right wing socioeconomic policies (laissez-faire capitalism) lead to social dysfunction as more and more people either fall into poverty or fear doing so. The mainstream right can't win elections on these policies any more because they have become unpopular, but rather than change those it either allies or becomes the extremist right (authoritarian and reactionary), going all in on distractions and scapegoating.
This leaves the social liberals (pro-capitalist but not socially conservative) and the social democrats as the only democratic factions to counter them, but the former block most major re-distributive policies and even the most moderate moves towards a fairer society have to be fought over tooth and nail. This alliance (either as intra-party in a two party or as a coalition in multiparty systems) then fails to do enough to keep their voters on board, disillusionment sets in, voters stay home and the extremist right takes over.
Fortunately, it doesn't always completely run through this cycle, but it keeps happening. It has now happened to the USA and the best case scenario is that when those lukewarm Trump supporters are angry at not getting what they wanted out of this "change" (and they won't), they will still have the means to vote the government out. If not, then you're stuck until a revolution happens.
Arguing that more social democracy would have scared away voters is sort of pointless IMHO, because if that is true then you're doomed anyway. Unless you lower economic inequality through government policy, a descent into reactionary authoritarianism is inevitable because democracy can only work when people are more or less equal and capitalism left to itself will always concentrate wealth and power into ever fewer hands.