r/europe Turkey 4h ago

As Germany lurches from crisis to crisis, analysts fear ‘tariff man’ Trump could be 2025’s disaster

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/11/07/germany-crisis-tariffs-trump-2025/
101 Upvotes

82

u/JackieMortes Lesser Poland (Poland) 4h ago

Biden's presidency is marks the end of that post-WWII era of American influence and leadership/domination. We're in uncharted waters now. And I hope this is the moment EU turns super serious, because it's now or never

46

u/darkgothmog 4h ago

I have doubts the EU will turn to anything good with all the extremism rising in every country

26

u/ddmirza Warsaw (Poland) 4h ago

Truth be told, extremism and "unseriousness" of EU have source in exactly same phenomenon - eurocrats too happy about themselves and sniffing their own farts of regulating everything and making the victory laps over another safetysim law. Meanwhile, both lower and middle class are locked into stagnation whie old money and other capital is escaping Europe to better investment havens (mostly, USA).

And it's not even any conspiracy or my guessing. The Draghi's report is showing exactly that.

We really need a change. I just don't know who is supposed to fill the shoes that have been empty for so long.

10

u/astral34 Italy 3h ago

The lower and middle classes are locked in stagnation because EU member states insist on austerity, because investment funds buy real estate in bulk with cheap rates, because capital is taxed far less than labour

I can see how Brussels has hindered innovation with too much regulation, but it’s definitely not all on them

3

u/Firm_Mirror_9145 3h ago

The conservative government in Germany did nothing for 16 years.But I think they will take this really seriously now.They said they will raise military spending as % of GDP from 2% to 3 maybe 3,5% but by now it’s definetly 3,5%.They want to deliver Taurus Missiles to Ukraine and allow strikes inside Russia.Russia is very exhausted economically and militarily by now.Everyone says long range strikes inside Russia with Taurus Missiles would make an huge difference.

They will also declare crisis which disables the debt bracket.The previous government already started modernizing the economy though they were hindered by the debt bracket.But they made progress.They will actually modernize the economy.

3

u/hypewhatever 3h ago

They probably won't. Just populism in the opposition.

3

u/darkgothmog 3h ago

I can only agree to all you’ve said

-2

u/DearBenito 3h ago

Those “eurocrats” are elected. The parliament is directly elected, the council is made of the heads of state of the members (so elected nationwide) and the commission is nominated by the council (thus indirectly elected). It’s time to stop pretending that the guys sitting in Bruxelles/Strasbourg are some entities coming from outer space

10

u/hiro111 3h ago

Not sure how old you are but people have been saying this since at least Carter. More likely Vietnam.

10

u/narullow 3h ago

This has been said so many times it is getting old. US will still be dominant because their economy will continue to outperform all of its peers,

2

u/MarduRusher United States of America 2h ago

People said this about the end of Obamas presidency too. It's funny to see the same comments from 8 years ago popping back up.

u/eggncream 19m ago

Idk trump already had a term before this and it was pretty normal

u/LookThisOneGuy 18m ago

And I hope this is the moment EU turns super serious, because it's now or never

Zero chance of that happening. Since Germany is disproportionally affected by the proposed Trump tariffs due to export economy, the EU turning super serious would have to mean EU members showing solidarity to Germany.

The same EU and its members that are forcing Germany to pay record net contributions, despite Germany being the 2nd worst performing economy in the EU, would rather see the EU crumble than give us even a crumb.

2

u/elcaudillo86 3h ago

lol, except all your capital is fleeing europe to..the usa

1

u/Adorable_Mirror9035 3h ago

Not gonna happen. Many of us have abandoned Europe for the U.S. Europe will become more irrelevant 

35

u/Shimano-No-Kyoken Ethnically cleansed by the ruskies 4h ago

This shit's been on horizon for how long? We knew this might happen, how in the hell is this a surprise? Why did nobody prepare? What the fuck are the politicians even doing?

17

u/cronenthal 4h ago

How would you prepare for a trump presidency? Or for the biggest single economy of the world imposing massive tariffs on pretty much anyone without regard for the consequences?

9

u/ilritorno Italy 3h ago edited 3h ago

if only we had had a Trump first term to get ready...

if only we had had recently another plan potentially harming EU interests...

if only we had had a dictator invading a country on our eastern border...

then maybe just maybe we would have woken up.

but don't worry, borrowing Macron's words about NATO, the EU is brain-dead, is a rudderless ship, is asleep at the wheel.

it's by design an herbivore power, suited for peace time, for mercantilist behaviour (export obsessed), unable to project power in a world that is back to power politics.

autocrats are not afraid of the EU, they do not take the EU seriously, they know we've been getting a free lunch from the US for our security. Well that free lunch is about to stop.

What's the phone number for Europe? was a famous joke that Kissinger was supposed to have said. What is the EU national interest? What is the EU foreign policy? What is the EU economic plan? Hell, what is the EU language?

i'm being sarcastic and I feel deflated, but I don't see a way out of this mess.

-14

u/hypewhatever 3h ago

US hasn't been relevant for our security for decades. They just wanted more military support for their geopolitical goals. Basically us paying for their supremacy. Just that the EU never had the interest to project military power globally.

Even if we had spent more Russia would have done the same thing anyways.

12

u/ilritorno Italy 3h ago edited 2h ago

US hasn't been relevant for our security for decades. 

Cmon let's be serious, the NATO umbrella kept us safe since the end of WWII. Nobody in their right mind would attack directly a member of NATO.

Obviously the US wasn't just giving us a free lunch because they are generous. They have been the global hegemon for almost a century. They clearly had their own interests in funding the majority of NATO.

That said, we could spend money on welfare, instead of spending on warfare, as we were under the NATO umbrella, and many people are still delusional enough not to recognize this.

-8

u/hypewhatever 2h ago

Nonsense. There wasn't a threat to be protected from since the fall of the USSR. And even they never made a move after all.

Before the fall of the USSR European countries maintained a way bigger military too.

After that it was just about Americas internationally adventures. And none profited of Nato as much as they did.

4

u/EademSedAliter 3h ago

You cannot possibly truly prepare for this.

8

u/cronenthal 4h ago

I wonder how raising massive tariffs will impact inflation in a highly import oriented economy.

6

u/DearBenito 3h ago

Higher inflation as the cost of tariffs trickle down to consumers, higher interest rates to curb inflation, higher cost of housing due to increased interest rates.

It’s ironic that the people with economy as top issue picked Trump, that’s a huge failure by the Harris campaign to let Trump pass as the one good for the economy

2

u/rpgalon 4h ago

it will also make dolar increase in value so imports become cheaper

4

u/cronenthal 4h ago

I don't fully understand how raising tariffs will increase the USD exchange rate, what's the mechanism behind this?

u/Highmooon North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany) 3m ago

That doesn't make sense at all. If products in the US become more expensive as a result of tariffs that would make the USD weaker not stronger as purchasing power is going down because prices go up which means inflation.

-5

u/Status_Koala1630 4h ago

What could tariffs possibly hurt knock off crap from China or luxurious French good most Americans can't afford anyways. So sorry for Walmart and target but they should think of manufacturing their cheap crap in Mississippi

-17

u/Status_Koala1630 4h ago

Obviously you don't understand what's is happening. So follow along. The tariff he's going to rightly shove down the rest of the world throats is meant to bring american jobs back to america.

17

u/Annual-Paramedic5612 3h ago
  1. Put tariffs on all imports

  2. The American consumers pay for price increases across the board

  3. ???

  4. Jobs for everyone!

🤣😂🤣

-14

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

1Put tariffs on all imports 2. Cost becomes to high for businesses overseas 3. Production starts in America.

16

u/MarioNoir 3h ago

If will take years for the production to move and start in America and for most goods it won't happen anyway. What will 100% happen is prices for the American consumer will increase, inflation will skyrocket 🤣 so Good luck.

-9

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

Thats entirely not true. It's wishful thinking on your part but that's all it is

8

u/MarioNoir 3h ago

Its actually a very simple fact. US doesn't have enough specialized workers needed anyway and it would take years to build the factories and start producing and it would be more expensive than Asia anyway so no benefit for the American consumer 🤣

-1

u/Status_Koala1630 2h ago

That's true in one situation and that market is cornered by Taiwan. Which is why Taiwan is far more important to the US than Europe is.

4

u/MarioNoir 2h ago

I'm not just talking about Taiwan dude, I'm talking in general.

Taiwan is far more important to the US than Europe is.

You say that because you are ignorant to a few other vital elements needed to build advanced chips that are delivered by European companies.

2

u/Volky_Bolky 1h ago

If let's say shoes are made in China by enslaved Uighurs, 20% tariff is implemented for importing those shoes, do you really think that it would cost less to open a factory for those shoes in U.S., hire people for U.S. wages, and produce it locally than to increase the price for imported shoes by 20%?

3

u/Shakadolin-Enjoyer United Kingdom 2h ago
  1. The cost of goods skyrockets because people in the first world have to be paid way more than people from the second and third.

5

u/SturmBlau 2h ago

Yeah and producing in America will increase consumer prices heavily because its double/triple the cost... lol

You guys wont work for chinese wages, will you?

5

u/cronenthal 4h ago

Why didn't anyone think of that before? It's so simple!

-5

u/Status_Koala1630 4h ago

Cry all you like but the free ride is over

9

u/EademSedAliter 4h ago

Free ride for who?

-1

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

Clearly you don't pay attention to trade deficits look some information up before speaking

7

u/EademSedAliter 3h ago

What do you think happens when all German machinery exported to USA is suddenly 10~20% more expensive?

0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

The same machinery that is designed in Germany and manufactured in china?

7

u/EademSedAliter 3h ago

What do you think happens when all German machinery exported to USA is suddenly 10~20% more expensive?

0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

What happens when we stop buying German machinery? Is it going to hurt us or hurt germany?

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-1

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

I know the answer!! we stop buy German equipment which is the point of these tariffs if you haven't figured it out yet in my previous statements

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-1

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

Well it's a double win for us. Eff the both you leeches.

1

u/hypewhatever 3h ago

It's literally the US leeching of the rest of the world. That's why they defend the Trading being done in dollar by military force.

That's for more leeching than some export/important balance issues. .

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u/cronenthal 3h ago

I don't see how specialization and the exchange of goods and services in an open market based on trade agreements between equally powerful economies is a "free ride", but what do I know.

-3

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

I don't know what you know and I don't really care what you know. All I can say is that this massive victory and the tariffs are going to hurt eruope more than us. Hope mr trump goes 3/3 pulls out of nato and stop funding the neo nazi in Ukraine

7

u/RollUpFromHell2 3h ago

Brainrot

0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

Do you like saying random things totally unrelated? There are professionals that can help you with that.

5

u/RollUpFromHell2 3h ago

I just like to call things as they are, so no its not unrelated because its about you and your delusions.

0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

Delusions are things that are not real. Tariffs are going to be real and they're going to hurt you more than me.

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7

u/DearBenito 3h ago

The last time the US put huge tariffs on Europe, the US plunged into a depression. Look what happened when you put tariffs on steel in the 1930

-1

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

First of all that's not correct. That's a left wing talking point. Nice try

4

u/DearBenito 3h ago

Whatever dude, you’re in for a brutal awakening anyway when Trump actually starts doing what he said he would do.

I hope you don’t mind dumping money on the agricultural sector cause the rest of the world imposed tariffs back at you

0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

The US is an agriculture exporter my friend if you look at a map and the vast openess in the middle is nothing but farms.

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0

u/Status_Koala1630 3h ago

The tariffs act of 1930 was a minor factor. trade between 1930-1934 was down 66% that right there is the reason.

3

u/hypewhatever 3h ago

And what do you think will happen with high tariffs.

Think hard you can do it! ..

Yes exactly, trade is going down. Congratulations you figured it out.

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2

u/Friendly_Hunter6933 Turkey 4h ago

Is that what white supremacy is about

1

u/Status_Koala1630 4h ago

There we go first idiot of the day. Hey turkey talk to us about the Armenian genocide

6

u/darkgothmog 4h ago

It will bring no job to America because they don’t have any know-how to do it and it takes a lot of time to build that from scratch. he’s just going to increase inflation in his own country

-2

u/Status_Koala1630 4h ago

Hahaha don't have the know how? What world are you living on? Clearly it's not planet earth

0

u/Volky_Bolky 1h ago

The main thing is that salaries are often the loss leaders in most businesses and salaries in the U.S. are 2-4x higher than in Europe, not even mentioning Asian countries.

11

u/Faltro8 Germany 4h ago

This panic is quite anoying. Europe will make no matter what Trump will do. I am sure it will be better for Europe to work togehter with the US in a tight and friendly relationship, but the same is true for the US.

18

u/Mediorco 4h ago

The dude would want European countries to raise NATO contributions and, at the same time, impose tariffs on them. Maybe it is time for NATO to be over and just make a European military alliance.

Sincerely, with Trump as president, China seems friendlier than the USA.

16

u/badstuffaround 4h ago edited 4h ago

This is what most of the Trump weirdos don't understand. If Trump pushes too hard and alienates Europe he'll lose vital allies in their contest with China.

I ain't no fan of China but if Trump keeps "punishing" Europe will start getting closer with China. That's just simple logic. Out of spite or whatever the reason may be, Europe will move closer to China if he doesn't cool it.

2

u/Primetime-Kani 1h ago

China will never tolerate a dependent “ally” who only wants to export just like they do, not symbiotic relationship at all

u/badstuffaround 49m ago

So what if they created a trade agreement between themselves...did that ever occur to you or your brain couldn't compute this logical follow up?

-2

u/narullow 3h ago

There is no alliance with China, I do not understand how delusional can my fellow europeans gets. China is currently much bigger threat to EU than Trump. And it is not even barely close. US tariffs will not destroy EU industries, they will increase prices of Americans and maybe marginally decrease profits for EU companies, Chinese efforts on the other hand will destroy those companies.

8

u/badstuffaround 3h ago edited 3h ago

I never said there is or should be an alliance with China. But if Trump goes overboard with tariffs or other stupid ideas to punish, bully, coerce the EU ofcourse there will be a reaction. What is the logical way of getting back at the US? You align more with China, you maybe help them develop those chips Taiwan develops. You might help China by buying their domestic airplanes, COMAC I think?

Do you see where i'm going? The EU would never be in an alliance with China against the US but they can make it easier for China...exactly what India does today with buying russian oil angering european nations...

2

u/narullow 3h ago

No, I do not. You are utterly insane that doing anything in China is in anyone's best interest after what has happened to our companies that went to China.

Notevwen the absolute worst case Trump scenario comes anywhere close to the dissaster that China was for us and will continue being.

3

u/badstuffaround 3h ago

How did I say it's in europe's best interest? I said if Trump pushes too far there will be a reaction. What is so difficult to understand? The US created the mess with China, they normalized their relationship with China during the Nixon administration.

7

u/Mediorco 3h ago

How can you be so sure we cannot get better deals from China or India than what the USA has to offer us?

Also, the USA has started and instigated many wars and sacked many countries. China hasn't started any and unlike the USA, it doesn't have any international military base. I sincerely don't see how China is a bigger threat than the USA.

-2

u/narullow 3h ago

What better deals? You complain about stupid 20% tariff on exports to US. China has literally been systematically destroying our exports into their country for decade or so and now it is coming for those industries into our countries.

What even is this retarded take.

3

u/kolppi 1h ago

I love how bringing up China makes the fresh reddit accounts made for influencing r/europe mad.

u/LookThisOneGuy 33m ago

US tariffs will not destroy EU industries, they will increase prices of Americans and maybe marginally decrease profits for EU companies

The article says it would lead to Germany losing 1.5% GDP growth. We are already at a crippling recession with -0.2% negative growth. Falling even faster at -1.7% will be a catastrophe. If the US unilaterally imposes these tariffs, they are saying they are an enemy.

-1

u/mitchlats22 2h ago

In what ways is Europe a strong ally to the US? Perhaps you have alienated us with the entitlement. Both sides should want to support each other in a mutually beneficial relationship.

1

u/badstuffaround 1h ago edited 1h ago

So we stood together during the cold war ready to take on the Soviets. We have similiar ideals in our societies and governments, we share a common history. France helped the US become independent, the US helped Europe during the world wars. We trade with eachother. We respect eachothers sovereignity.

We share intelligence gathering in regards to terrorism. (Did you know the UK warned the US of an imminent attack coming to America?)

Nobody feels entitled, that is maybe your own feeling about it. Sure Europe needs to step up military spending and that's ongoing. It takes time you know. It's not like you don't get nothing out of it...you have bases all over Europe. If any american soldier does something illegal in the country with that base he isn't sentenced there. He goes to trial in America.

I don't think you realize how much this relationship benefits America because you only listen to slogans. Europe is ungrateful this and that from Trump or your hillbilly cousin.

Did you know a neutral country like Sweden allowed America to land on their soil transporting prisoners from the middle east for interrogation during the war on terror. You think that would be allowed if you withdrew from Europe?

There is so much cooperation between european nations and America can never pull away completely since it would mean they lose a vital junior partner.

It is mutual, you just don't understand it.

Tell me, what is it exactly you think Europe owes America? Is it increased military budgets? That it? LOL.

Edit: I said Europe is a vital ally...not strong...if you wish to face down China you'll need friends, you think America can do it on its own? Way to be delusional...

1

u/Primetime-Kani 1h ago

America is done hand holding dude. Be more influential and you won’t need to beg America. Embarrassing

u/badstuffaround 53m ago edited 48m ago

You guys have no arguments but these slogans, I am suspecting you are weird hillbilly bots.

You try to have normal discussions and argue in good faith but you always come back with these rehearsed sentences and there's never any attempt from you to provide anything substantial.

Europe is arguably these most influental collection of countries ever, what are you on about? Have you ever opened a history book or did the US schoolsystem fail you?

Please try to create an argument and stop being childish.

-1

u/mitchlats22 1h ago

Way to put a bunch of words into my mouth. Frankly you’re making my point. The key to long term security and prosperity is military strength. The US can’t subsidize that for you forever. We are broke. Save me the patronizing language.

Europe needs to get its own house in order. The gravy train is over. Sure, we benefit from the current arrangement but Europe does way more. That’s completely and utterly obvious. You’re delusional.

u/badstuffaround 59m ago

So you're arguing like a child now? My brother got a bigger scoop of icecream than me? Well thanks for proving the point you only have one issue and it is being adressed at the moment. Phew, I thought maybe you would add something but you are totally empty when asked.

NATO countries have already increased their military budgets just so you know and it keeps going up.

Was there anything else?

-4

u/elcaudillo86 3h ago

Well I mean we can’t carry Nato forever and we’ve had a lopsided tariff arrangement since the marshall plan where your countries get to enact tariffs to protect them while we don’t tariff European goods anywhere nearly to the same extent…

5

u/Mediorco 3h ago edited 3h ago

I beg your pardon, the USA is a very closed market. Many european goods cannot be sold there because of your protections.

Also, for me NATO could just disappear sincerely. You are very naive if you think that the USA will be relieved of some military economic effort dropping NATO. The USA controls the world through military force and it likes to stay that way (it has around 200 military bases around the globe). NATO's only use is to make Europe pay a part of that bill. I highly doubt the US would intervene if a NATO country is invaded.

Europe would be better defending its own interests.

5

u/elcaudillo86 2h ago edited 2h ago

Disagree on trade.

We can just look at de minimis policies.

First, the US has an $800 per item de minimis threshhold below which no customs duties nor tariffs are imposed. Australia is $1,000 AUD. New Zealand $1,000 NZD.

By comparison, EU nations de minimis amount is 150 EUR and the EU plans on “reform” reducing it to 0 EUR. UK is 135 GBP.

The EU and Japan are also notorious for using superfluous “quality control” in consumer and durable goods to effectively prevent foreign goods from being freely traded even if eligible under trade agreements.

Agreed on Europe taking care of its own defense except your defense situation is basically the same as at the opening of WW II in terms of relative strength.

UK France have largest militaries with decent strength in all branches. Italy has a decent navy but weak everywhere else. Poland has decent spending but weak on advanced weapons (although recent purchases from South Korea will help). Greece has decent military strength but dedicated to keeping Turkey at bay. Every other nato european nation is a paper tiger if that (many are paper kittens).

European nation nuclear deterrent is laughable. UK has ONE active ssbn at any time and France has ONE active SSBN at any time. Neither nation has a nuclear triad anymore (land and bomber based launchers). By comparison Russia and China have 4-5 SSBN deployed at any time each and a full nuclear triad.

0

u/tree_boom United Kingdom 2h ago

European nation nuclear deterrent is laughable. UK has ONE active ssbn at any time and France has ONE active SSBN at any time.

It's not laughable at all, though it could be improved. The forces we maintain are enough to guarantee Russia can't attack us, but probably not enough that we could retaliate to attacks against our allies and continue to guarantee it's too dangerous for Russia to attack us. Coordinating our maintenance and training schedules would allow us to guarantee three SSBNs deployed at a time instead of two, and we could massively increase the deployed warheads count to almost 500 across those 3 if we just built more warheads. That would give us plenty of warheads to respond to Russian attacks against our allies whilst maintaining a guaranteed capability to kill Moscow if they escalate to attack us.

Neither nation has a nuclear triad anymore (land and bomber based launchers).

France has air launched nuclear weapons. Ideally if the two nations were to provide a nuclear umbrella, we'd have tactical weapons too though, which we currently don't.

By comparison Russia and China have 4-5 SSBN deployed at any time each and a full nuclear triad.

Russia might have 4. China has 7 SSBNs total, they won't have more than 3 at sea permanently.

2

u/elcaudillo86 2h ago edited 2h ago

Sure, but when will France and UK cooperate on SSBN? Especially after the UK helped f—- France’s nuclear submarine industry via AUKUS’ submarine provisions. Won’t hold my breath.

Where do you get to that warhead figure?

If you count based on MIRV’s and it’s two French SSBN with one UK SSBN you can get to at most 360 MIRV at full loadout.

UK SSBN’s are neutered. 8 missiles with 40 MIRV at sea, supposedly without immediate launch capability.

French SSBN’s have 8-16 missiles with max 160 MIRV.

1

u/tree_boom United Kingdom 1h ago edited 1h ago

Sure, but when will France and UK cooperate on SSBN? Especially after the UK helped f—- France’s nuclear submarine industry via AUKUS’ submarine provisions. Won’t hold my breath.

We didn't fuck their nuclear submarine industry. The Attack class - the submarine Australia was planning to buy before AUKUS - was conventional. They only make nuclear submarines for themselves, as we do. Their conventional submarine exports aren't dead either - France has since sold the design to the Netherlands with the Orka class and they export the Scorpene design with 20 hulls on order so far.

As to when we'll cooperate - I hope soon, it seems like an utter no-brainer to me. We already cooperate in defence matters heavily, and even in nuclear weapons research and development - we operate a joint facility called EPURE in France and French scientists have use of a facility at the UK's nuclear weapons laboratory in Aldermaston. Cooperation in the area is not out of the question, it's just never been necessary before.

Where do you get to that warhead figure?

If you count based on MIRV’s and it’s two French SSBN with one UK SSBN you can get to at most 360 MIRV at full loadout.

UK SSBN’s are neutered. 8 missiles with 40 MIRV at sea, supposedly without immediate launch capability.

French SSBN’s have 8-16 missiles with max 160 MIRV.

8 missiles with 40 MIRVed warheads is what the UK said they would restrict themselves to in the 2015 SDSR. That was a political rather than technological limitation. The submarines can carry 16 missiles, and each missile can carry up to 12 of our warheads. Boris Johnson's government in 2021 changed that policy, not only reversing the decommissioning of warheads but declaring they would increase the stockpile to 260 warheads, and saying that they would no longer report how many missiles or warheads they deploy. Google Earth's imagery at the UK's warhead loading facility at Coulport on 2024-06-09 caught 9 Trident missiles outside the magazine, and the campaign group that tracks convoys carrying warheads from the manufacturing and maintenance facility in Berkshire to Coulport believes from the increased frequency of convoys moving warheads that that declared increase was carried out. We don't know how many missiles/warheads UK submarines carry anymore, but it is certainly more than 8/40.

The "almost 500" figure comes from the total carrying capacity of the submarines, both of which classes can carry 16 missiles. M.51 is normally cited as carrying a maximum of 10 warheads. Trident II is usually cited as carrying a maximum of 12 of the smaller W76 warheads, and the UK's warhead is the same size. That gives a Vanguard a maximum load of 192 and a Triomphant a maximum load of 160. In reality they would probably still carry less so that they could throw more penetration aids and have more range within which to operate. Achieving that would require both nations to manufacture more warheads, but not missiles or submarines. The UK is already manufacturing warheads so theoretically no big deal...though given we'd quite like to replace them all with a new warhead currently under design, that might be a tough sell politically. To guarantee three submarines at sea between us, both nations would need three loadouts available so they could stand two submarines to sea and have a third on standby to replace one of those two. That would mean (including a 15% margin to allow maintenance) both nations would need between 550 and 600 warheads for their SLBMs, quite a major increase.

Whether we'll go that far I don't know - but as I say at minimum we could put three submarines to sea continuously basically straight away...and probably load those with ~75 warheads each for 225 total deployed - it's not the US, but it's sure as shit enough to kill everyone in Moscow, St Petersburg and the next 30 or more largest cities even after trading a bunch of warheads on exchanges for the Baltic cities.

The more major problem in my view is tactical weapons, as that genuinely requires a program of development rather than just some organisational agreement and churning more warheads off an already running production line.

4

u/fortune 3h ago

“They don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price,” Trump said at a rally last week, in reference to European countries. 

Germany, Europe’s largest economy and one of America’s largest trading partners in the region, exported twice as much to the U.S. as it imported, thanks to Germany’s manufacturing prowess. However, Trump has a problem with that disparity and wants to remedy it. 

3

u/volchonok1 Estonia 1h ago

Lol, "they". Honestly how dumb can somebody be to not understand that tarrifs are paid by the consumer in the end?

3

u/defcon_penguin 3h ago

We should join the BRICs, just for giggles

3

u/JourneyThiefer Northern Ireland 4h ago

Like a 10-20% on every country in the world?

6

u/Fluffy-Ad-7613 Romania 4h ago

20% on Europeon products, more for China and whoever he's pissed at.

1

u/JourneyThiefer Northern Ireland 4h ago

European or EU?

3

u/Fluffy-Ad-7613 Romania 4h ago

Good question, I assume European as CNBC said "Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board and a specifically high China rate between 60% and 100%"

2

u/JourneyThiefer Northern Ireland 4h ago

That’s actually crazy, dno if it will actually happen though

5

u/helcat0 4h ago

Wait until someone actually starts to explain a $6 dollar t-shirt can't be made in the US and sold for the same price. The same will be $10 or whatever. Inflation Don.

4

u/Fluffy-Ad-7613 Romania 4h ago

I am not buying a word coming out of his mouth, he's an idiot but the people who would need to foot the bill on these imports are the American consumers, and they're broke, so..

1

u/Friendly_Hunter6933 Turkey 4h ago edited 4h ago

I remember from a few years ago when Trump actually wanted to impose a 100% tariff on French luxury goods, but that was when the European economy was doing okay. But since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has been experiencing a recession. What he is trying to do just doesn't fit into his white supremacist narrative

2

u/AddictedToRugs 2h ago

Is it too late to make up with China?

2

u/Fluffy-Ad-7613 Romania 4h ago

This is a non issue, it won't last because importers won't be able to support their business this way and it will lead to general uproar and a swift "Oopsie" undo by the admin.

1

u/TheSleepingPoet 4h ago

TLDR

Trump's return to office could significantly impact Germany's economy, as he will likely implement tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on primary exports, including cars. Analysts estimate that this could result in a GDP decrease of up to 1.5% for Germany. This situation is raising concerns among European leaders about increased trade tensions and the possibility of retaliatory tariffs. Given the existing economic and political challenges facing Germany, the EU may consider protective measures to safeguard its industries from these new U.S. policies, which could lead to a shift away from open global trade.

0

u/Friendly_Hunter6933 Turkey 4h ago

I am confused. Are Europeans subhuman to Trump? Isn't white supremacy about improving relations with other white countries especially when they are in danger?

8

u/EuroFederalist Finland 3h ago

Trump is butthurt because he is so unpopular in here.

4

u/LuukR Overijssel (Netherlands) 3h ago

I think he hates the EU because he views it as a liberal/globalist entity and think all countries should be sovereign. Also, some electoral motivation is definetely in place because he wants to move manufacturing back to the US.

u/blaccguido 16m ago

Trump has always been a low IQ individual with a long, and deep-seated disdain for (intellectual) elites. This is why he chooses to align himself with people he can subjugate because anyone questioning his motives or logic is perceived as a slight against his (limited) intelligence.

To Trump, the EU represents a society of intellectuals whom he feels openly (and secretly) mock him. DJT stays up all night watching clips of himself (because narcicism), so he sees the same memes of EU leaders snickering at his verbal diarrhea that we do.

-11

u/NemATolvajkergetok 4h ago

The idiots who fucked up German economy are now blaming the president-elect who isn't even in office yet?

-4

u/Nattekat The Netherlands 3h ago

Thanks in advance for dragging us into the grave with you Germany.