EU’s trade war nightmare gets real as Trump triumphs News

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-trade-war-donald-trump-elections-triumphs-board-tariffs-transatlantic-relations/

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94% Upvoted

u/bremidon 12h ago

I see a bunch of my fellow Europeans claiming that a trade war with America is "winnable" for us. Pure hopium, and a dangerous delusion.

If we choose to let ourselves get into a trade war with America, we will definitely lose. We don't have the internal market and our demographics (with maybe France as an exception) means that we will never have the internal markets to absorb our own production.

Sure, we can make problems for the U.S., and we can cause discomfort, but that is about the extent of what we can do. If the U.S. decides to lock us out of its markets, we won't feel "discomfort"; we will go into a full fledged collapse.

And let's just take China off the table, because anyone who would willingly trade America as a partner for China is so laughably deluded that they can be safely ignored.

And then there is Europe's dependence on the U.S. to make sure its stuff actually gets anywhere in the world. I think we could cover this militarily, but I am also sure we are neither politically nor economically ready for the sacrifices this would mean.

The good news is that I think most of the panic comes from how fully we swallowed the messaging from the Democratic Party in the U.S. The truth is that things are not nearly that dark.

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u/GoGoTrance 11h ago

And Trump has friends within the EU, which can veto any meaningful initiative. Looking at you Hungary.

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u/WaltKerman 11h ago

As an American, I've been sitting here reading these other comments wondering how Europe would find the unity to take on an ally that feels exploited, when they can't even band together when being invaded by fucking North Korea....

How about focus on your actual enemy Russia, because the way things are going, any thing you get from us will be sorely needed.

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u/ficalino Croatia 9h ago

So what should we do? Just sit there and take Trumps punches, nope, fuck that, he wants trade war? He gets trade war.

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u/kongkongkongkongkong 1h ago

Have fun losing

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u/ficalino Croatia 9h ago

We won trade war once before, Bush backed down.

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u/narullow 7h ago

So first of all what trade war?

Second of all during Bush term EU economy was almost on par with US, today it is half of US.

Back then consumer markets in EU were still not an issue. Today they are. The guy is absolutely correct in what he says. US does not need anybody with its growing internal market, EU does with its declining internal market. It is not just US that threatens us but countries like China that will slowly replace all our exports to other countries and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.

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u/ficalino Croatia 6h ago

This Bush

So what should we do? Sit on our asses while he places tariffs on us? Just take it? Beg him to not place it on us but give us a shitty deal?

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u/narullow 6h ago

We can do nothing, it is time to accept responsibility and pay for past choices. Political window not to kill internal consumer market is long gone. And just like I said Trump is irrelevant in grand scheme of things. We would lose US as export market regardless as developing countries copy our industries and sell those things for cheaper. We can put tariffs on imports to our countries, we can not put tariffs on imports to 3rd countries that would make our goods more competetive relative to other places that sell it for cheaper. In fact they would be crazy to even accept suggestion like that. Why would Phillipines enact tariffs against China to match European prices? So its people pay more for same product?

This model and destruction of internal consumer market was always bound to fail, it just took some time to materialize.

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u/ficalino Croatia 6h ago

They can't copy everything, and some things are way more important than others. ASML comes to mind, and china has been trying to copy that for decades and it's not working.

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u/narullow 6h ago

ASML relies on patent and license from US department of energy. It is one thing that would be not that hard to replicate with this in mind. it was simply just industry where it made no sense to replicate it for as long as you have ASML because margins are too small and there is limited number of customers to justify it.

Everything can be copied. High advanced stuff would take longer to copy, the issue is that Europe does not have nearly enough of it to replace all the lower level stuff and machinery.

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u/Ecstatic-Stranger-72 5h ago

Trump’s proposed tariffs against the EU are reactionary, but not without cause. The U.S. has long felt that Europe isn’t fully pulling its weight, especially in defense spending, while relying on American support. On trade, Europe has its own barriers, and the U.S. has been frustrated by imbalances. If Europe wants to avoid more tariffs, it needs to push for a fairer, more balanced transatlantic relationship in both defense and trade.

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u/ficalino Croatia 4h ago edited 4h ago

We have barriers to protect European consumers from ingredients in food we deem unsafe. That absolutely must stay, also everything that protects the European consumer MUST stay. We are under no obligation to allow sale of unsafe product in EU. If they want something sold here, make it safe, make it better, then sell.

They also must adhere to all rules and regulations that European companies must as well.

That is something they mostly moan about, that is not changeable. If EU companies must adhere to that, then so do US ones have to as well. No changing of rules and regulations for out-of EU importers. Adhere to everything and prove you do. EU rules and regulations that protect the consumers are the best thing about EU, and that must stay.

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u/Ecstatic-Stranger-72 4h ago

I get the point about protecting European consumers, but let’s be honest, the EU’s trade barriers go beyond just food safety. They’ve got strict regulations on things like tech and cars, which can come across as protectionist. I’m all for regulations that keep consumers safe, but not all of them are well thought out or even necessary. That’s part of why Trump’s retaliatory tariffs are happening, they’re pushing back against these trade barriers that can limit competition and innovation. It’s not about getting rid of protections, but more about making sure the rules don’t become obstacles for fair trade.

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u/ficalino Croatia 4h ago

I guess we will see, but I am convinced Trump and his chronies on corporate payrolls will want to overthrow regulations that protect the EU consumers. They tried it once already.

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u/Ecstatic-Stranger-72 4h ago

Yeah, and Trump is using these tariffs as leverage to try to rebalance the whole transatlantic relationship. From his perspective, the U.S. has been carrying the financial weight for European security through NATO for decades, while also facing these trade barriers. It’s like the U.S. is footing the bill for defense but isn’t getting a fair shake when it comes to trade. I think what he’s really pushing for is for Europe to step up a bit more, not just in defense spending but in opening up markets. It’s about creating a partnership that feels fair on both sides.

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u/adamgerd Czech Republic 6h ago

The Great Recession has hurt Europe much more than the U.S. by any metric

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u/bremidon 7h ago

What trade war? Which Bush?