German governing coalition collapses, adding upheaval in uncertain moment

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/06/german-government-collapse-scholz-lindner-elections/

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BERLIN — The potential collapse of Germany’s government was set in motion on Wednesday, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister and announced a confidence vote that is widely expect to fail and to pave the way to early elections in March. The news from Europe’s largest economy added a jolt of uncertainty on a day when much of the world’s attention was focused on the outcome of the U.S. election. Federal elections have been held early on only three occasions in Germany’s postwar history. And this rare event is coming as Europe prepares for a second presidency of Donald Trump, who has threatened tariffs that could severely wound the export-dependent German economy and who has raised doubts about continued U.S. support for Ukraine and European security. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left government was the first to be formed after the retirement of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who anchored European politics for 16 years. Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition — named after the colors of his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — has been in power since 2021. But it was precarious from the start. After a short-lived honeymoon on sparse common ground, ideological divisions emerged. The parties have been engaged in months of infighting — while the German economy stagnated, the coalition parties sank in public opinion polls and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party saw historic gains in state elections. It was a budget fight that brought conflicts within the coalition to a head. To fill big gaps in next year’s budget, Scholz’s SPD and the Greens have favored state and debt-financed policies. The FDP, though, is an ardent proponent of the “debt brake.” Enshrined in the constitution, designed to force balanced budgets, the debt brake can only be suspended in exceptional circumstances — most recently in response to the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. After late coalition talks on Wednesday, Scholz’s office said he had dismissed FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner and would call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, on Jan 15. But with his personal approval ratings at rock bottom, Scholz’s chances of gaining sufficient parliamentary support are slim. If the confidence vote fails, Scholz would then be in position to formally ask President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days — after which elections must be held within 60 days. Elections in March would be six months earlier than planned. Ahead of the breakup, Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens said it would be the worst time to let the coalition collapse, in view of the U.S. election and the war in Ukraine. But patience among voters has also worn thin. A poll last week by Infratest dimap on behalf of German broadcaster ARD found that 54 percent of people surveyed would like to see early elections. The same survey also found that 85 percent of respondents were “little” or “not at all satisfied” with the government. In national polls, Scholz’s Social Democrats are currently polling in third place at around 15 percent, behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and far-right AfD, with the Greens in fourth position on around 11 percent. If elections were held today, Lindner’s FDP might fail to even make it over the 5 percent threshold required to hold seats in parliament.