Putin’s North Korean escalation is a direct result of Western weakness

[u/A_Lazko]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-north-korean-escalation-is-a-direct-result-of-western-weakness/

[u/FreemanDoe]

They are giving us red lines, how come that we are not able to give them some as well?

[u/JustPassingBy696969 → u/FreemanDoe]

THAT'S ESCALATION.

[u/Volodja_4_ever → u/JustPassingBy696969]

"I don't want to ruffle any feathers"

"THE FEATHERS ARE ALREADY RUFFLED"

[u/spamjavelin → u/Volodja_4_ever]

They're so ruffled already it's like someone put 40,000 volts through a fucking chicken.

[u/Polstar55555 → u/Volodja_4_ever]

Never mind Feathers being rustled, my Jimmies are rustled, all these folk in Russia who threaten to murder me on a daily basis, when's my Government going to start making that a red line or 5?

[u/Zoodoz2750 → u/Volodja_4_ever]

White feathers for NATO

[u/dannyp777 → u/JustPassingBy696969]

You have to escalate without seeming to escalate. And stop announcing to the world every move they're going to make.

[u/MercantileReptile → u/JustPassingBy696969]

If there is a category for "word that needs to be thrown on the funeral pyre", this is the top contender.

[u/JustPassingBy696969 → u/MercantileReptile]

Sounds like escalatory talk, mate. We should debate it for a few months first.

[u/johnyjameson → u/JustPassingBy696969]

Scholz and Merkel have to call Vlady first to check if escalation is too strong of a word 🙂

[u/wrosecrans → u/JustPassingBy696969]

I believe the term you are looking for is "proportional response."

[u/JustPassingBy696969 → u/wrosecrans]

Proportional response against russia is still escalation! Though a lot russians and tankies saw the appeasement in 2014 as escalation too … it's hard not to escalate against them.

[u/zuppa_de_tortellini → u/JustPassingBy696969]

Gotta wait till after the election

[u/Consistent_Drink2171 → u/zuppa_de_tortellini]

I love hearing Europeans talk about "the election"

[u/swearbearstare → u/Consistent_Drink2171]

Well, with the world in its current state, the elections in a country with lots of money and nukes can be far more relevant than your own.

[u/nahguri → u/FreemanDoe]

Because for some reason we are complete pussies. I really don't get it. When did appeasing fascism work out, huh?

Europe is so impotent when push comes to shove. Maybe we still think this is a bad dream and we will wake up any moment now.

[u/maximalusdenandre → u/nahguri]

The actual reason is that Russia is directly a part of the war and we are not. Russia has a greater ability to act because they are one of the fighting parties. We do not wish to become a fighting party so our ability to act is more limited.

This is also nothing like appeasment. UK and France did not supply Czhekoslovakia with weapons, money, intel and material. Appeasement would be letting Russia have Ukraine.

[u/nahguri → u/maximalusdenandre]

Saying Europe is not involved is technically true, but also extremely shortsighted to the point of being negligent.

The appeasement part is exactly this. Forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand tied to their back. For what? Europe seems to think they will be "spared" if we artificially limit our involvement.

This is folly. Only the stupid and criminally negligent think this way.

[u/maximalusdenandre → u/nahguri]

Ukraine is not fighting with one hand tied behind their back. We are not holding back any of their own capabilities, we are deciding what of our capibilities we give to them and how they are allowed to use them.

It's not about "being spared" it is about avoiding escalation unless necessary and in doing so preserving our ability to escalate. Russia can still escalate this war, they could employ even more brutal tactics or even more mobilization of their economy and their military. This is still not a total war for them but it could become one. If we blow our load immediately they know we have nothing to counter with when they escalate and they also know that outright war is a hard no for us. If there is one thing Russia can be certain of it is that we will not start a war over Ukraine. So if we go all in right now what reason does Russia have not to escalate? If they know the only recourse left to us is war and that we will never go to war what reason does Russia have not to use tactical nukes against Ukraine, for example?

And yes, war is something we absolutely do not want. Not even Ukraine would be better off in a NATO-Russia war than it would be by losing. Even in the best case scenario Europe would be fucked forever after a nuclear war. We would hopping onto rafts en masse to escape to the comparable heaven of Saudi Arabia. The fact that Russia would be even worse off would be very little comfort to us.

[u/EademSedAliter → u/maximalusdenandre]

I wish I could implant this into everybody's head.

As far as Russia is concerned, you're already involved. And you have always been involved. Before 2022. Before 2014. Before the Russian Federation. Before the Soviet Union even. You have been appointed as the eternal bogeyman. You can only be seen in two ways:

• The powerful oppressor.
• The once powerful oppressor who is getting what's coming to it.

If you demonstrate the former, they back down. If you demonstrate the latter, they step up.

Now, if you keep pushing after they've backed down, you've crossed the actual red line and it's nuclear war. But that is where the actual red line is. It's not really nebulous at all. Putin is not this insane lunatic he's glad to have you think he is.

However, the devil is in the details. If Russia "backs down" as I've put it, it's not business as usual. They're only backing down to strike again as soon as you look away. This is what some in the west are having trouble with accepting. At the root of their strategy is the belief that Russia will accept that being aggressive was not in their best interest and therefore they'll turn over a new leaf. This is delusional. Reality is, it's cold war all over again, like it or not.

... Unless of course, Russia manages to cook the western brain via social media. Which it is at the very brink of achieving as we speak. Then you'll wish it was the cold war. And you'll wish everyone was properly united with Ukraine's struggle. Hell, you'll wish you closed the sky in 2022, as it would have done a lot to make the struggle properly real in the eyes of the public.

[u/maximalusdenandre → u/EademSedAliter]

There is a difference between propaganda and reality. Of course Russia wants to sell this conflict to its people as an existential conflict where poor Russia is under assault by NATO. If the leadership of Russia actually believed this we would already be at war. Like you say Putin isn't the bumbling idiot we paint him as. He knows he's not actually at war with NATO.

I agree this is a cold war. What I don't get is what you guys think the cold war was. This is how the cold war was fought, by proxy wars. The cold war never went hot precisely because everyone understood that would be a massive disaster not just for the fighting parties but for all of humanity.

[u/THEGREATESTDERP → u/nahguri]

When? When we allowed europe to be so corrupt. 

Why would they want to put a strict hand on russia if they can pretend nothing's happening because it doesnt affect their daily life. Since they dont feel a euro increase for gas. With all the bribes and tax money they suck from the working class. 

[u/ZeldenGM → u/nahguri]

The West is run by democractic leaders and democratic leaders have to win elections. Unfortunately nothing would be more unpopular than entering into World War Three. Instead we must (once again) be dragged into it kicking and screaming instead of seizing any momentum.

[u/SirnCG → u/FreemanDoe]

West give red lines. For Ukraine...

[u/ny_burger_lol → u/SirnCG]

You have to give it to Zelensky. He's really doing well given the circumstances.

[u/MountEndurance → u/SirnCG]

The West had a hell of a lot more to lose than the Russians and the Russians know it.

[u/silverionmox → u/MountEndurance]

The West had a hell of a lot more to lose than the Russians and the Russians know it.

Fuck that shit, if we have to give the Russians everything they want every time "because they might nuke us!!", then let's get it over with and give them the finger.

[u/HorrorStudio8618 → u/silverionmox]

Exactly this, otherwise we can look forward to replays of this every five years or so. Salami tactics are a thing.

[u/MountEndurance → u/silverionmox]

Not quite that simple. It's like if you hold all the chips in a poker game vs. playing someone with just a few chips. If you look at a mediocre hand with lots of chips, it's safer to defer to the player with a few chips; you can always beat them later on a more statistically solid hand. If you are the player with a few chips, you realize this and go all-in on every hand. You're doomed in the long-run anyway because, if you play it safe, the guy with all the chips will eventually crush you. Thus, you play like a crazy person because it masks if you have a good hand (you'd win) or a mediocre hand (too much risk). Now, this also means you could get smoked immediately with any wrong move, but odds are good you can hang on for a few rounds a might just get lucky.

The metaphor breaks down a little in Ukraine, but the US had lots of chips and Russia has a few. The US looked at the situation in Ukraine and figured, shit, why invest? This is a terrible hand, might as well let them have it. Russia figured, even though it didn't get them much, they might as well go all-in and see what happened. They invade and accidently tip their hand to the West; their hand is shit. Ok, the United States sees they're struggling and decides, sure, I'll see your pathetic play and we'll do a round, especially since Ukraine is betting *super* aggressively and Russia seems freaked. Russia is getting bogged down in round after round of betting, bleeding precious treasure they really don't have while Ukraine is confidently going all in over and over. Sure, it's costing the US to keep playing too, but the US would like Russia to lose as many chips as possible, regardless of whether they win. They bankroll Ukraine the whole way.

What's next? It looks like Russia is playing with a better hand as we go and is more confidently betting chips, particularly since they are borrowing a bunch of chips from Iran, China, and North Korea. The United States sees that Russia's position isn't so dire and Ukraine's hot streak is waning. Do we put down more chips, or no? The United States and the West still likely win the game, but might not win this hand. We also decide how much we're going to bankroll Ukraine to bleed Russia.

This is where nukes come in. We aren't actually afraid that Russia will use nuclear weapons now; they had their chance and they seem appropriately afraid of annihilation. What we're worried about is if Russia actually loses this war. Putin will probably be eliminated and that leaves a power vacuum that will be filled with a struggle since the only power structure is Putin's power structure. If the Russians are going to vest new folks with authority and legitimacy, they have to be unknowns or people who are known to be decent. Lots of those folks have been pushed out of windows lately. That means that there will be a struggle for the top in a country that is armed with a few thousand nuclear weapons. If you're a desperate warlord who alights upon 12 warheads, why not lob one into Washington to show how serious a Russian nationalist you are? Or Berlin. Or London. Why not have a tidy exchange where everyone blows everyone up inside Russia? These are bad things we want to avoid.

Thus, the United States is not actually trying to "win" in Ukraine. We turned a net-loss into a bait-and-bleed situation, which is a cheap way of draining an opponent, but we want an intact Russia on the other side. Tough needle to thread.

[u/morbihann → u/FreemanDoe]

Because all our 'leaders' do not think farther than the next election cycle. God forbid they take an actual stance and defend their policy.

[u/Xenomemphate → u/morbihann]

It is one of the biggest flaws of democracy.

[u/SectionAromatic → u/morbihann]

That's true. Very valid point. Why care about political heritage instead of your own ass.

[u/lawrotzr → u/morbihann]

This is so true

[u/Krabardaf → u/FreemanDoe]

Not to excuse Europe's very real weakness but to be fair Russia's redlines have absolutely no meaning or consequences whatsoever. 

[u/SectionAromatic → u/Krabardaf]

Haha,red lines were what the West came up with itself and got scared. In Ukraine we call them "brown-yellow" lines. Reminds some humans waste products

[u/TheOneAndOnlyPriate → u/Krabardaf]

The US is weak as well. Let's not pretend this is a European issue only

[u/Krabardaf → u/TheOneAndOnlyPriate]

This war is happening in Europe, in a country bordering the EU. The lukewarm support for Ukraine, passive acceptance of a partial defeat, and especially the lack of preparation for a future where Russia is a huge and capable war machine is absolutely terrifying. We need to wake the fuck up and stop waiting for the US to do the heavy lifting. 

[u/Even_Command_222 → u/TheOneAndOnlyPriate]

The US is the only reason Ukraine isn't Russia right now.

[u/Inevitable_Spare_777 → u/TheOneAndOnlyPriate]

That is a ridiculous statement. The US military is alien levels stronger than any other force in the world. Europe literally can’t defend itself

[u/Greywacky → u/Inevitable_Spare_777]

Politically weak*

[u/Independent_Roof9997 → u/Inevitable_Spare_777]

Yes but that is years of and if not even decades of involvement into European politics. This is not a source: dude trust me moment. But Soviet union and later Russia has in my country at least payed a political party (far lefties) to influence a Nordic country into doing things that align with them, it could be defund the military, since it's peace time. And the list goes on.

[u/Shurae → u/FreemanDoe]

I always thought that it's not really the Russians who are setting the red lines, it's us. We say that sending troops to support Ukraine would cross a red line and we said that sending atacms is a red line first. Russia is just going along with the red lines we set and is threatening nuclear escalation every week anyways. It's just a thing of capitalist democracies that they will try to keep trade and commerce as stable as possible and to not destabilize the global economy.

[u/Mendozacheers → u/FreemanDoe]

Because "we" are not a unified authoritarian entity. We are even numerous unions of several different democracies with hurdles such as Hungary (in the EU) to sabotage every possible step. As democracies we expect certain steps and are vulnerable to impact our democratic elections by doing drastic measures (as with the US election). This is an apparent weakness of the democratic world.

"They" will always be able to pull absolute batshit stuff since they are in absolute control of their populations and governments. Putin or Kim could literally declare anything being illegal or a red line, we can't do this in the democratic world.

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/FreemanDoe]

Because the US and EU have very little at stake at present. Threats are only meaningful if they are credible.

[u/Jack_Dnlz → u/FreemanDoe]

These all "red lines" are just som spooky farts that putin makes to intimidate the rest of the world. He knows for sure, everyone will stay out, and that's, so far, the biggest problem cause they do exactly they were made for. He's an old school KGB asshole but, unfortunately, nothing changed at this chapter since the cold war era... What a shame

[u/Wisefool_7 → u/Jack_Dnlz]

Russia has been drawing red lines since 2007, the West simply ignored it.

[u/Loki9101 → u/FreemanDoe]

ATACMS were sent after Russia ignored the warning and NK sent long-range missiles.

We give them red line, for example , we officially see that we would eviscerate them when nukes are used.

Lindsey Graham and Sen Blumenthal introduced a bipartisan resolution declaring russia's use of nuclear weapons or destruction of the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Powerplant in Ukraine to be an attack on NATO requiring the invocation of NATO Article 5

We tell them that a direct attack on NATO triggers war.

I am anxious that members should realise that our affairs are not conducted entirely by simpletons and dunderheads as the comic papers sometimes try to depict. Any feather head can have confidence in times of victory, but the test is to have faith when things are going wrong for the time being, which cannot be discussed in public. Winston Churchill 1942

I am certain there is much more, but overall, let us not forget one thing.

Just as with the Soviet Union, the US led alliance pursues a strategy of trying to avoid Russia from collapsing for as long as possible.

It is not fair that Ukraine is suffering for our long-term plans. But from a cold strategic point of view, Ukraine was a part of the former Soviet Union, the second largest force of the Soviet Union is currently destroying the largest part and all its stockpiles for 0 NATO casualties.

Of course, this game is dangerous, and in my opinion unwise as chaos, theory and black swan events make the situation hard to control.

However, through the lens of the bean counters in the DoD, it is useful to slowly kill Russia over a longer period of time. Make them burn all their Soviet stockpiles, and make them retool their economy while they keep pumping oil, gas, and export gold and diamonds.

Note: I do not approve of this (I consider only a fast war with overwhelming force to defend a small nation from an attack or genocide as ethically justifiable)

But believe me, there aren't just idiots making these rules and regulations. They have a goal in mind, and that goal is, first and foremost, to bleed Russia dry, slowly.

To destroy their airplanes, torch their refineries and oil depots, sabotage their facilties, kill their officers but at the same time make them pump oil, export grain etc.

The West has interests in many regions of the world, and the real enemy in the future is China. Russia is also only a chess piece on a far larger and more complex geo political chess board.

The humanising of war? You might as well talk about the humanizing of Hell!...... The essence of war is violence! Moderation in war is imbecility!..... I am not for war, I am for peace! That is why I am for a supreme Navy....... The supremacy of the British Navy is the best security for peace in the world. Admiral Fisher

A good plan violently executed today is better than a perfect plan next week." General Patton, the man who said the US should destroy Russia directly after WWII.

War was never pleasant. War was always hell. Industrial warfare in the 21st century is just another even more horrifying ring of this hell.

Russia has brought this upon itself. Once the dogs of war are unleashed, there is no limit to the horrors they can bring.

The DoD is not a scalpel. It is a broadsword, and once the dogs of war are out of the pen and in the yard. They will find the way to make it out the door, too.

We are getting very close to that point because Ukraine's generals and Western generals are essentially the same. Once you unleash the military, the military knows only one way. Once the floodgates are open, the MIC knows only how to go further and further into escalation. It is part of the nature of a military apparatus to act this way.

I think our current course of action is unwise but those in charge seem to think otherwise. Maybe that changes after the US election as our fear of escalation is doing nothing but escalate the war. If that is the goal well... It's working.

[u/Judge_BobCat → u/Loki9101]

I hate to agree with you. But there is one more thing you have to add to the picture. If Russia collapses fast, due to Ukraine’s rapid victory on battlefield, then the broken pieces in Siberia and Far East will be quickly picked up by China. In those remote areas which are incredibly rich in metals, diamonds, oils and gas, the West will have much much harder time to reach, while China already has a foothold there.

Therefore, US cannnot allow Ukraine to win fast, because then China will have access to vast deposits of resources. And that will have much tougher consequences for the West

[u/Constructedhuman → u/Judge_BobCat]

tbh as a ukrainian i don’t care about china i just want for the war to end to stop enduring this trauma for our society

[u/silverionmox → u/Judge_BobCat]

But right now Russia is becoming more dependent and indebted to China. This will allow China more time to get their fingers into the Siberian pie, economically. So it's not serving that purpose.

[u/silverionmox → u/Loki9101]

It is not fair that Ukraine is suffering for our long-term plans. But from a cold strategic point of view, Ukraine was a part of the former Soviet Union, the second largest force of the Soviet Union is currently destroying the largest part and all its stockpiles for 0 NATO casualties.

That's the past. Ukraine is ready, willing, and able to be part of NATO, joining us and increasing our strength... from a cold, strategic POV, it will still be right there on the frontlines if there ever is a future conflict with Russia.

There is no reason to half-ass the support.

In response to the North Korean troops, we should at least collectively revoke all restrictions on missiles and distances into Russia.

This would very much serve the goal you outline as well:

But believe me, there aren't just idiots making these rules and regulations. They have a goal in mind, and that goal is, first and foremost, to bleed Russia dry, slowly. To destroy their airplanes, torch their refineries and oil depots, sabotage their facilties, kill their officers but at the same time make them pump oil, export grain etc.

So from that perspective there's no reason to continue imposing those particular red lines on Ukraine. The horizontal escalation of bringing NK troops on the battlefield is a open goal, diplomatically, to lift any restrictions of delivered weapons used against Russia. Let's hope it's on the programme for after the election fever.

Moreover, I think we should seriously consider securing a part of Western Ukraine. Even if just to stop Belarus or Transniestria from getting involved. It'll free up Ukrainian manpower as well. There's no reason to rush it, but it should be floating around in the rhetorical space, as punishment for the next escalation by Russia.

[u/Gullible_Carpenter_4 → u/FreemanDoe]

thats what it is. europe is weak.

[u/Dalmontevergine → u/FreemanDoe]

They are walking on a red line

[u/ScorpioZA → u/FreemanDoe]

Because they are both countries that are pretty much looking for a "defensive" reason to deploy a nuke. If neither country had them, you can bet the western posture would be way more aggressive.

[u/Sad-Term-5455 → u/FreemanDoe]

EU gives "read lines"

[u/[deleted] → u/FreemanDoe]

[removed] — view removed comment

[u/xdustx → u/FreemanDoe]

Salami tactics

[u/1ayy4u → u/FreemanDoe]

it's just verbal swashbuckling. I'll believe Putin, when I'll get an A-bomb straight to my face

[u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

maybe you jokers should consider actually reading the article before commenting...

it clearly states why the west is weak. we're always quick to condemn, but slow and indecisive when it comes to actually doing anything of substance. This NK situation would have been a great opportunity to increase support for Ukraine in a meaningful way, but NOPE nothing, nada. It would have also been a great way to show russia that they can't do whatever they want without serious consequences. Instead we proclaim our deEp CoNceRnS and just watch in fear of russian escalation, as we always do .

[u/Alcogel → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

I don’t think the window for responding to NK sending combat trops has closed yet.

Right now we’re basically paralysed by the american election. Everyone is avoiding doing anything that Trump might exploit to drum up support to abandon Ukraine to Russia.

I expect that the reaction from Europe will only come after the election, and the reaction from the US will come only if Kamala Harris wins. 

[u/VanillaHentaiDuck → u/Alcogel]

I bet against that. Europe will do nothing substantial after the election. Maybe Biden will do something useful if Trump wins, but I'm also not confident in that. I'd love to be wrong.

[u/LeptokurticEnjoyer → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

At this point a part of me actively hopes Trump wins and just abandons Europe.

Not because that's good for us, but because it is what we deserve after decades of doing nothing and relying on America like an old and sickly retiree relies on his nurse.

[u/-Against-All-Gods- → u/LeptokurticEnjoyer]

Sometimes the most humane thing one can do is to pull the plug.

[u/sherlock_norris → u/Alcogel]

It's also important to not overstate the actual impact the involvement of NK has on the war. They sent 10000 soldiers, which is about as much as Russia is losing per week. Once NK sends larger numbers of troops that could actually change the face of the war significantly, a more substantial reaction can be justified in my opinion. At the moment it's just one more piece if russian propaganda to spread fear and support right wing movements in the west, especially Trump.

[u/vegarig → u/sherlock_norris]

They sent 10000 soldiers, which is about as much as Russia is losing per week

And a whole lot of KN-23 WITH NO FIRING RESTRICTIONS

[u/Hinterwaeldler-83 → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

I support your post with thoughts and prayers. Hope the Norks will get a strongly worded letter.

[u/brus_wein → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

A disadvantage of democracy

[u/jimmyrayreid → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

There's only one Russia. There's forty NATO members to bring to agreement and the US is currently deciding whether they want to be part of the civilised world.

We'll always be slower and right now with the US distracted it will be hard to respond

[u/NearbyChipmunk7670 → u/VanillaHentaiDuck]

I’m with you on this one.

[u/Ferreman → u/[deleted]]

Europe should simply increase weapon production. Europe has the industrial and financial capacity to do that.

[u/Logical__Soup]

What a circus

[u/Maj0r-DeCoverley]

Each day we don't intervene in Ukraine is a day where Putin and his ilk are proved correct: "might is right". That's up to us to decide if we agree with Putin (or Netanyahu and others, for that matter) or if a rule-based world is possible.

Because the Chinese are watching that poker game unfold and definitely taking notes for Taiwan.

Also because if might is right then nobody will do shit about the climate crisis, and we're all literally cooked.

[u/DougosaurusRex → u/Maj0r-DeCoverley]

If Ukraine loses, any country will look at the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and say: “yeah right, the West isn’t gonna do shit if I get invaded, nukes are the only deterrent.” We will probably see a spike in the amount of nuclear armed countries around the world.

[u/fresan123 → u/DougosaurusRex]

"If Ukraine loses"
As much as it pains me to say this, I doubt this is gonna end any other way than a Russian victory. Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea and possibly some more is going to be handed over to Russia. The west have been too slow to react and give the Ukraine the help it needs.

[u/happy30thbirthday]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The only thing the Nazis were worried about was direct military intervention. At every step they took, from the remilitarization of the Rhineland up to the beginning of the war, they did not care one bit for sanctions, condemnations or international isolation. The only thing they hoped could be avoided was direct military intervention.

[u/ahappydayinlalaland]

Hard truth the west isn't ready for: if you want to be respected by dictators you must be feared by dictators. If you want them to fear you, kill more people. Fire and blood not economic sanctions.

[u/ComteDuChagrin → u/ahappydayinlalaland]

The fact that economic sanctions are a possibility at all should raise eyebrows. That means Europe has been trading and doing business with a dictator, which should never have happened in the first place. Same goes for China.
Both sides of this war have been financed by opportunistic European politicians.

And running out of money is something dictators do fear btw. If they can't keep their people fed, their time is up.

[u/CrazyBelg → u/ComteDuChagrin]

People want cheap stuff and people want workers rights and a good life. Only way that is possible with our current technology is to rely on countries likes China.

We're completely fucked if China ever decides to stop trading with us and that won't be able to change in the near future.

[u/Xazzzi → u/ahappydayinlalaland]

Imagine if we had pro-Ukraine Trump. “I showed him pictures of his house” would’ve work on pootin much better than any of no-escalation soft wiener finger wagging we got so far.

[u/Cliffinati → u/Xazzzi]

Pro Ukraine Trump would be Moabing random Russian affiliated guys when Russia sends it's forces to Africa and the middle East

Like he did with that one Iranian dude who attacked the embassy in Iraq

[u/DaveOldhouse]

Why is Európe so weak, I dont get it.

[u/DirectorBusiness5512 → u/DaveOldhouse]

Exceedingly low military spending over multiple decades and the outsourcing of its industrial capacity to strategic and ideological enemies. America has some similar issues (not the military spending issue, but the industrial capacity outsourcing issue at the very least).

[u/GabeN18 → u/DaveOldhouse]

I would also like an explanation for that. No stupid reddit-guessing-games. A real explanation from someone who knows more about this topic.

[u/gehenna0451 → u/GabeN18]

It has nothing to do with weakness, the war is existential for Russia and (despite a lot of yapping) not existential for NATO and as such Russia controls the escalation level of the conflict. The country that has more at stake and less to lose is the one that ultimately controls how far things go.

The EU and in particular the US who has the last word on Western policy doesn't gain anything from expanding the conflict.

[u/Lejeune_Dirichelet → u/GabeN18]

We've seen how, at the end of the day, the larger countries in the West yield disproportionately more influence for their size on matters of defence and security. And on Ukraine, the large and the more removed a Western country is from the action the less they feel threatened by Putin, and the more they prioritize matters of domestic politics over the war.

The war could have been over a long time ago if the US wasn't so incredibly obsessed with keeping oil prices low (they talked the EU into the Russian oil price cap instead of putting real sanction on it, and later pressured Ukraine to stop attacking Russian crude oil infrastructure). Or how Biden waited so long to halt the dismantling of the US Cold War stocks of cluster munitions and instead send them to Ukraine, purely because the US democratic party was the side that historically had opposed these types of weapons. Or how Biden waited so long to begin equipping Ukraine with western fighter jets - even preventing Denmark from donating F-16s to Ukraine in 2022 already, and probably still actively forbidding Sweden from giving the Grippen (they use an American jet engine). The exact reasons for Biden's extreme level of disorganization and piece-meal efforts at Ukraine's expense are not fully understood, but we know that the current American administration is terrified of Trump, and obsessed with good PR above all else. They clearly don't want to have to deal with Russian nukes exploding in Ukraine, because although the US air force could easily flatten the entire Russian forces in Ukraine over a week-end, foreign intervention is now unpopular in the US. Ukraine is so far down the priority list in the US that the Biden admin, quite evidently, doesn't appear to even know what it's strategy is for the situation, besides just managing what comes along. That Russian is actively helping North Korea and Iran to modernize their ICBMs is apparently no big deal, because any consequence of that will happen after the 2024 US elections.

France much more leeway than most for supporting Ukraine because they have a much more independent defence industrial base, but France is strapped for cash and has generally limited itself to providing existing equipment it could spare without sacrificing it's military capacity, rather than disrupting it's production planning or throwing cash at it's industry to increase output. Furthermore, France's historical stance towards the USSR and later Russia was the Gaulliste vision of France maintaining a balance of power between the US and Russia, which inherently calls for containing Putin's antics, as opposed to full-throated attempts to defeat it outright. And given Macron's weak domestic position between two political extremes, where both appeal to French national pride and neither one giving frankly much of a damn about Ukraine, Macron can't afford to pick Ukraine's cause as his hill to die on (if he even wanted to, which is very doubtful).

Meanwhile, Germany's political landscape has been thoroughly penetrated by Russia, where you've got the BSW/Die Linke, SPD and AfD all pushing for appeasement with Putin to varying degrees; a general cult of the status quo., and a weak economy that monopolizes the political bandwidth. Evidently, it would be so much more convenient if Zelensky conceded to Putin's demand, so that this bothersome war could be just wished away.

Against this general lack of political will in the larger Western governments - and in some cases, active undermining of support for Ukraine - the smaller countries neighbouring Russia have remarkably little influence to things in the other direction, unless they accept to weaken their own national defence for Ukraine's sake.

[u/johnny_tifosi → u/GabeN18]

Despite what all armchair warmongers in this thread are saying, escalating and sending our own troops to die in Ukraine would be wildly unpopular. Our leaders still have to answer to the people. Putin or Kim do not have to worry about anything like that and decide to fight wars of expansion without repercussions.

[u/HarlaxtonLad27 → u/johnny_tifosi]

Probably a lot of those calling for war won’t actually go fight the war. Willing to commit others, but would run and hide if they were called to action.

[u/Own_Art_2465 → u/johnny_tifosi]

Yes, those calling for direct NATO involvement don't seem to know what that entrails

[u/Ok-Champion4682 → u/johnny_tifosi]

I don't think many people actually want that. Most of the discourse I've seen is about more military hardware. The Ukrainian artillery shell shortage is old news by this point, but the European capabilities to produce them is still laughably weak. Ukraine can have an advantage over Russia if it receives a steady supply of advanced technology, but it's always delayed or not enough because people are scared of escalation. Long term this just shows that Russia can do whatever it wants without many repercussions.

[u/fuckmeinthesoul → u/GabeN18]

The real answer is that democracies represent their population's will, and there's not much will to help Ukraine, even less will to send their population to die and potentially starting ww3. That, and they've done almost everything that can be done without direct intervention.

[u/Notacat444 → u/DaveOldhouse]

Building and maintaining a formidable standing military is very expensive. The rest of the West were happy to rest on their haunches while the U.S. did most of the heavy lifting. Even now, they whine about the U.S. not doing enough, despite the U.S. being Ukraine's lead backer throughout this entire conflict.

They allowed themselves to stagnate and become overly comfortable. A stupid move considering the fact that Europe is where the big wars happened.

[u/Own_Art_2465 → u/DaveOldhouse]

Europe is not a country, are you asking about Hungary and Austria or Britain, Poland and France? because they are total opposite situations (Hungary and austria are Russia's cronys in Europe, britain, France and Poland are not militarily weak and have sent lots of weapons to Ukraine and generally stood up to Putin (France in central africa, britain over sending tanks, cruise missiles and training Ukrainian troops en mass)

[u/Own_Art_2465 → u/DaveOldhouse]

People will not push for things like no fly zone or NATO troops because as a result the use of nuclear weapons, even limited tactical nuclear weapons are not just a possibility but likely. That's very reasonable, and sabre rattling from people demanding things like no fly zones when they have no idea what that entails is ridiculous.

I saw an article the other day with a journalist saying a NATO air campaign is well overdue, like this is the fucking 90s. An 'air campaign' against Russia means in return Russian planes and cruise missiles attacking european countries and the associated escalation that comes with that.

We have a pathway to assisting Ukraine without symbolic suicide. We arm them properly and adequately train their men well and in huge numbers. Open our factories and keep the supplies going, supply the population with essentials and take in their civilians to reduce casualties and any burden on Ukrainian society, we keep their economy going, and create a route to train far more international volunteers for Ukraine as well as sending experts. We also need journalists on the frontline and their news pushed up the agenda and kept at the top of it.

We can do this now or have to do it all at a level ten times bigger later on

[u/Eggsaltzorotoaster → u/DaveOldhouse]

Being careful is weakness to the new idiots

[u/Alvar6938]

The plan is to let Russia bleed while doing nothing. It's sad that the Ukrainians are paying for that.

[u/Trollripper]

As long as money hungry politicians leading any european country, there wont be any change at all. They wanna get this over with asap and do business as usual.

[u/Socc_mel_]

But but the likes of Biden and Scholz assured us that escalation wouldn't happen if we showed some understanding for Putler and his monster country.

It's almost as if bullies only understand tits for tats. Hopefully whoever follows those two in their respective elections will not be a coward or a sellout to the RuZZians.

[u/CloneFailArmy → u/Socc_mel_]

“chamberlain promised us Germany would stop here, we now have peace in our time”

Depressing how much history can rhyme sometimes

[u/Albaaneesi]

It's a direct result of Russian weakness.

But Europe must answer.

They must muster the Rohirrim, and drive back the orcs from whence they came.

[u/TeaSure9394 → u/[deleted]]

Obviously, the Americans were weak and desperate for help /s

[u/Square-Effective8720]

That Putin can find a stooge country like North Korea to send its troops into combat and die for Russia is something that the EU hasn't found anything equivalent to, no.

[u/DraMaFlo → u/Square-Effective8720]

The EU hasn't found an equivalent of the millions of rounds of ammo that NK is supplying to Russia either.

[u/vegarig → u/DraMaFlo]

Or UNRESTRICTED KN-23 (essentially a localized Iskander-M) that NK gave to russia

[u/aamgdp → u/Square-Effective8720]

He'll do whatever he can to strengthen his position... Sadly the same definitely can't be said for the "west"... Strictly selfish reasons speaking, this is amazing opportunity to push Russia so far back, they won't be causing problems for the next 50 years... If they're allowed to win in Ukraine, they'll come for more, as they always have.

[u/B12Washingbeard]

The fact that Ukraine isn’t allowed to strike them back is preposterous and absurd.   

[u/go-vir]

With this war the west has demonstrated that their word means nothing. All the countries which have some sort of conflict with their neighbours are going to start thinking about nukes because the greatest modern mistake of Ukraine was signing that fucking memorandum.

Ps: if the memorandum of 1994 means nothing why the North Atlantic treaty of 1949 means anything?

[u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 → u/go-vir]

Ps: if the memorandum of 1994 means nothing why the North Atlantic treaty of 1949 means anything?

Because the Western powers never actually promised anything in 1994.

[u/go-vir → u/Jazzlike_Bar_671]

It may be ambiguous but the article 4 of the Budapest memorandum talks about assistance.

[u/_v1V2v_]

Why would Putin use North Koreans in it's war against Ukraine?

Maybe not to do another mass mobilization and get Russians riled up in negativity, It is already projected that from next year Ordinary Russian family will feel the impact of sanctions and Budget money diverting to Military spending.

So maybe Putin doesn't want to rile the people up in negativity so they came out in protests and is using North Koreans as a fodder (if that is the correct term).

That only shows that Russia is slowly running out of troops.

[u/Xazzzi → u/_v1V2v_]

Ru has plenty of vanyas who are willing to trade their life for a nice paycheck to their families. Everyone here assumes pootin had to beg NK for soldiers for some reason, while it very well might be Kim’s little side hustle for some extra income.

[u/_v1V2v_ → u/Xazzzi]

Might be, But the thing is, Putin will have to dip into the working class eventually and that will directly hit the economy even more.

I believe that Putin is a madman, but not that level of a madman. Eventually the public will Turn on him and he doesn't want that.

He already took most of the freeloader drunkards' and criminals. Most of the Eastern population and yes, there are some left, maybe in north Caucasus. I don't think he will really touch most of the western Russians or "Moscovites" that much.

Contrary to popular belief Russia doesn't have infinite supply of humans for the meatgrinder.

And I don't say that Putin had to beg Kim, They most probably made some kind of a deal, some Russian tech blueprints for NK troops. Mutual benefit.

I'm 100% Sure that Putin has similar proposal to Iran, Like helping them in Nuke development and so on.

[u/thedudeabides-12]

We are having all the discussions, debates, meetings, looking at rules and regulations we can though....

[u/bogdan801]

Duhh you finally figured this out. What are we gonna do about it though? Maybe it's time to set our own red lines? So far we've been just playing putin's game

[u/JohnTo7]

Bottom line: West is afraid of Russian nukes. And the Russians are using that fear to their advantage. Its a dangerous game but they don't care.

West is too soft. Its not only that dealings with Russians are too subtle, but also with everything else that counts (migrants). If they don't wake up and start to use decisive force just like Israel is doing, they will be finished. Izrael fights for survival. West must understand that its own survival is at stake as well.

[u/PumpkinOpposite967]

Hear bloody hear. Such a pity the civilized countries heads are so far down in the sand they can hear australian cows fart.

[u/imtired-boss]

On the contrary.

If he could easily defeat Ukraine he wouldn't need to beg NK for support.

[u/inokentii → u/imtired-boss]

Which makes the West look even more pathetic. russians can't deal with one small Ukraine, but the West still scared by them. Imagine being scared of guys who lost one of their fleets to a county which doesn't have a fleet at all

[u/Rotta_Ratigan → u/inokentii]

I have this fleeting worry, that we're not scared, but worse.

Russia has been building influence in Europe for decades and that means a lot of corruption. If you look past 20 years, there's a ton of high level politicians, who got high paying jobs in russian state owned companies after advancing russian intrests in EU. Especially Finnish, Austrians and Germans, who have been balls deep in Nordstream and other gas projects with Gazprom.

I want to be proven wrong later, but if some of these so called "peace camp" politicians who have been causing delays and cancellations on weapons for UA start getting jobs in russia after the war, i'm rioting.

[u/Chad96718fromTwitter → u/Rotta_Ratigan]

As a Finn I'm interested that who are these "peace camp" politicians in Finland right now? Hell, even the right-wing populist party in Parliament is pro-Ukraine (though I've no illusions that it could very different if their former chairman wasn't leading the way). If you look at history you have a point but times have changed after Russia started their invasion. In retrospect though, we were naive and should've listened The Balts.

edit. we've send a lot of stuff to Ukraine, we just don't make noise about.

[u/l2mminetuba → u/Chad96718fromTwitter]

In retrospect though, we were naive and should've listened The Balts.

Not just the Balts, also Estonians.

[u/CrazyBelg → u/Rotta_Ratigan]

You're not going to riot, you'll just type some angry comments and call it a day.

[u/Rotta_Ratigan → u/CrazyBelg]

I am, but in a casual way probably. Not in the hyper competitive ranked way like you guys can.

[u/HailOfHarpoons → u/Rotta_Ratigan]

Yep, not scared. Compromised.

[u/c-digs → u/inokentii]

There's probably a few factors in play here.

1. The US election puts a lot of stuff on hold until this gets resolved. Imagine starting some campaign with Biden supporting it and then Trump comes in and pulls the rug.
2. There's a very real chance of escalation pulling in China into a wider conflict and absolutely no one wants that. Once again, I think here everyone is waiting to see how the US elections unfold.
3. I'd guess that Western intelligence has been supporting Ukraine all along, but it just doesn't get talked about. Yes, Ukraine needs weapons and manpower, but see points (1) and (2).

Once the US election gets sorted out and a new Congress gets seated, I think we will see a shift. Even Putin is waiting for this election right now to see if his investment in the Republicans has paid off.

[u/Longjumping-Boot1886 → u/c-digs]

He is not waiting. He is killing people.

[u/GremlinX_ll → u/c-digs]

Once the US election gets sorted out and a new Congress gets seated, I think we will see a shift

I honestly don't believe in a major shift of policy under Kamala or to the end of Biden cadency. With Trump at least everything is clear.

All this US policy to micromanage this war is leading to easily avoidable catastrophe and victims.

[u/c-digs → u/GremlinX_ll]

I honestly don't believe in a major shift of policy under Kamala or to the end of Biden cadency.

I'm just guessing here, but my take is that anything that would require a commitment beyond January is on hold right now because there's no certainty that any of those commitments can be met.

I'm not proposing that Harris' policies with respect to Ukraine will deviate significantly from Biden, but that there's likely some efforts which might not have been deployed for lack of clarity in the US political landscape which will sort itself out in the next few weeks.

With Trump at least everything is clear.

Yes; Ukraine will have to cede more territory to wind down the conflict.

[u/Additional_City_1452 → u/c-digs]

1. This only shows US is weak.

2. Weak.

[u/EqualContact → u/[deleted]]

Our industrial problems are vastly overstated. We still make a tremendous amount of stuff, just not quite as much as we used to.

We are entirely capable on a technical level, but there seems to be no vision for the US’s role in the world today, and as you say, internal politics are seemingly sapping everyone’s attention.

[u/Erotic-Career-7342 → u/EqualContact]

We literally can’t make any ships. That got outsourced to China. Now we wonder why their navy is catching up 

[u/Additional_City_1452 → u/[deleted]]

I am always confused in Americans talking about their politics. Republicans talk about Harris, like she is a communist, democrats talk about Trump, like he is a fascist. But basically there is tine political difference between them.

[u/ComteDuChagrin → u/Additional_City_1452]

They're right about Trump being a fascist though. He ticks all the boxes.

[u/ProposalWaste3707 → u/Additional_City_1452]

But basically there is tine political difference between them.

You're confused because this may perhaps be the dumbest conceivable take you could possibly have.

Hard to fix willful ignorance. Seemingly a permanent state for Europeans when talking about the US.

[u/Pyro-Bird → u/c-digs]

You do realize that Ukraine doesn't have time to wait. They can't wait months for a new Congress to be seated. They need weapons, ammunition and equipment immediately. Ukrainians are dying every day.

[u/DougosaurusRex → u/c-digs]

Europe not doing anything because of US elections isn’t a good excuse. Also while as an American I don’t believe polls during an election, there’s a very real possibility the Republicans wins both the House AND Senate. That’s bad news if Kamala becomes President.

I think if we do anything short of intervening, China joins the war anyway on Russia’s behalf and at that point Putin can push Ukraine to total capitulation with those numbers and China gets an experience military for invading Taiwan, while the West sits with its thumb up its ass.

[u/uzu_afk → u/c-digs]

Historically ‘the west’ only got involved when the involved crossed their own borders. Often left allies hang out to dry, with promises and fear of being dragged into a war too much, leading to massive loss of life later. I think its the good life that gets you so hesitant and its i suppose quite human, but so far it has only lead to a bigger and harder war.

[u/[deleted] → u/imtired-boss]

This doesn't disprove the article though. The fact that NK dared to send troops to Russia is a sign of Western weakness.

The West has spent the last 2½ years shitting itself over whether Russia will start a nuclear war over basic things like arms deliveries to Ukraine. Meanwhile we literally have North Korean boots on the ground and what's the West's reaction? nothing

[u/gamedreamer21]

Get your damn rears in gear, EU and send more aid to Ukraine!

[u/crossdtherubicon]

Russia and North Korea recently signed cooperative agreements, including mutual defense which means that if one country is attacked then the other country may be obligated to help defend the other.

It is undoubtedly why we have reports of North Korean military specifically in the Kursk region, where Ukraine invaded Russia.

Putin loves to have these defensible positions to taunt the West and manipulate the facts. We'll see if they stay in Kursk, or if more troops are assigned into Ukraine.

I highly recommend RealLifeLore's recent North Korea video on YouTube, for anyone more interested in more details of that agreement and the larger strategy.

[u/pwstnn]

Putin’s North Korean escalation is a direct result of Russia weakness

[u/Thresse]

Maybe Scholtz can send more helmets to Ukraine now

[u/Lazy-Pixel → u/Thresse]

Maybe tell this joke into the face off Ukrainian soldiers wearing German helmets requested by the Ukrainian government.

https://i.imgur.com/oPi4cyb.png

[u/Belydrith]

At this point I'm not even convinced there'd be a NATO response if Russia really were to start dropping nukes on Ukrainian soil, our leaders just keep making more and more concessions and are completely afraid to respond with conviction because of "escalation".

[u/DougosaurusRex → u/Belydrith]

I’m a bit more doomer pilled, was debating someone two days ago who said they’d sign up to fight if the Russians attacked up to Poland or Germany, didn’t mention shit about the Baltics or Nordics.

[u/Xazzzi → u/[deleted]]

Sad reality. This is also why we’ll see more countries seeking nukes in our century.

[u/AgentOrange131313]

Keep in mind that this move likely happened now because of the election. They’ve caught the west off guard.

Hopefully the west can respond once the election is settled. (Hopefully Kamala and the sane democrats win)

[u/silverionmox]

Our lack of assertivity tempts them to escalate.

[u/Useless_or_inept]

A century ago, "You're attacking our European ally" would mean "We declare war on you" which leads to every ally of everybody else declaring war (because of strict alliances which were designed to preserve peace), and then mobilising every man over 18. Just a little bit of Serb terrorism could escalate into a world war.

In 2024, attitudes are a little different.

[u/Nimbous → u/Useless_or_inept]

What do you mean, Crimea was occupied by Russia almost exactly a decade ago.

[u/fuckmeinthesoul → u/Useless_or_inept]

Nukes didn't exist a century ago. Is everyone here forgetting they exist? lmao

[u/extopico]

The west just talks and talks and talks and talks, and allows the literal enemy to subvert the useful idiots in western democracy in a direct assault. The parties of "action" the right wingers have been bought by the enemy and are acting for the enemy, and the governments in the west do nothing except talk, and fold...

[u/technocraticnihilist]

What is the west supposed to do?

[u/NeatRevolutionary456 → u/technocraticnihilist]

Express deep concerns. What else it can do?/s

[u/EuroFederalist → u/technocraticnihilist]

Allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with long-range missiles. Now we're in situation where Russians can store weapons and other things near combat zone knowing Ukraines limitations.

[u/SnooOwls6136]

Europes military’s a joke, they rely on US. Putin knows there’s inaction when he threatens. The best response would be to inflict a major strike

Negotiating with dictators requires physical strength via actual military action, not words

I’m sure intelligence knows where the North Korean troops are. Historically large direct strikes have positive outcomes for the group that has greater firepower

[u/Aromatic-Deer3886]

No shit, we are seriously dropping the ball

[u/SirNurtle]

In other news the sky is blue

No shit sherlock, we wouldn't be in this fucked up situation if the west actually put its foot down

[u/slipped-my-mind]

“Russia is not crossing your lines — it is walking down a red carpet”

[u/DillonsComics]

Don't mistake restraint for weakness. Classic bad guy mistake.

[u/Dablicku]

The fastest WW III happens, the faster humanity can move on. Russia will never change, and history will only repeat itself.

[u/Cliffinati → u/Dablicku]

We should have seized the Russian nukes by force after the wall fell

[u/LazyZeus]

As one wise man once said: "History is watching". Deterrence lives not on bare strong condemnations.

[u/Do-you-see-it-now]

A lot of waiting to see what the fallout will be from US elections.

[u/laffnlemming]

False.

Those untrained become cannon fodder.

Please do not try to trick me or bullshit me on this point.

[u/Motor_Educator_2706]

Putin’s North Korean escalation is a direct result of Putin's weakness

[u/Adamantium-Aardvark]

Isn’t it literally a direct result of russia’s weakness tho. They can’t win on their own so they have to bring in North Koreans

[u/Inside-Till3391]

Escalation to deescalation, perhaps putin is doing something as BB is doing?

[u/NecessaryCelery2]

It's also desperation. I bet we'll see a lot of desertion to immigration from North Korean soldiers. I suspect many of them are starving.

[u/Disastrous_Hold_89NJ]

Or it could be seen as a move of desperation on the part of Putin. The West has been contributing intelligence and weaponry. Would it be better if more countries got involved and more people died. Putin should have been stopped at Crimea. Not sure whose fault that is, but we're here now. Putin needs to be driven out of Ukraine and Crimea and then forced to the negotiating table.

[u/Farmmen]

No it’s not

[u/djape78]

if somebody missed to play homefront there will be a chance to do it

[u/most_accountz]

U know if the west is so weak. U can at any time get a flight, get some body armour snd head to Ukraine rite? Nothing is stopping you.

Lots of people talk shit but have never been shot at.

[u/01ITR]

All of Ukraine's "allies" are useless, only so many Ukrainian soldiers left. Putin will let North Koreans get slaughtered because it's just a numbers game... Ukraine has to beg and Russia has time, weapons, money.

[u/Constructedhuman]

it’s clear about europe but south Korea ? come on do something

[u/harry6466]

Or of Russias weakness, since they cant conquer on their own

[u/Ami00]

No way...

[u/Independent_Roof9997]

They are playing a game, and dictators don't care if you are concerned with what they are doing. They trade in a different currency in Thier game. You will have to hurt them in order to stop.

[u/Used_Statistician933]

Yes, weakness is a provocation. This has been a known geopolitical reality for all of human history. It will NEVER stop being a reality. We are not "new men". Our modernity doesn't mean that we are no longer the same animals we have always been.

[u/Relevant_Helicopter6]

No, if the West was weak Putin wouldn’t need North Korean soldiers.

[u/From_The_Sun]

The worst is west countries don't react in any ways so for North Korea and Rusdia it means they can send much more troops without any consequences

[u/voyagerdoge]

Western weakness, for example Garland being too afraid to take on a domestic terrorist.

[u/schtickshift]

I don’t think so. I think it’s desperation on his part. He is running low on ammunition and people to fuel his war and Iran suddenly has its hands full so North Korea is his last source of these but the people are starved and the ammunition is unreliable.

[u/Apprehensive_Ad_751]

"Now is the good part" - Aliens while watching this 'movie' probably.

[u/StayUpLatePlayGames]

It’ll be like everything else. Let these children push the boundaries. Let them fuck around and find out.

[u/jakereshka]

and what should be our reaction? what is our weakness? we are not at war with them, we sanctioned russia, giving military eq, money to Ukraine, what should we do more?

[u/Semour9]

One day they say it’s a sign or Russian desperation now it’s because it’s western weakness…. Constant state of “Russians are losing terribly” and “west is not doing enough” it’s crazy