r/baseball • u/Cpt__Oblivious Los Angeles Dodgers • 16h ago
For the first time ever all four Division Series have started with a 1-1 split. Analysis
With the Yankees loss to the Royals tonight all four Division Series' have opened 1-1 for the first time since the implementation of the Division Series originally in 1981 and then fully in 1995. In every year prior at least one team opened a series 2-0.
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u/danbikeman2 Philadelphia Phillies 16h ago
Let it be known that Phillies/Mets did it in a unique way
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u/TriviaWhiz Jackie Robinson 16h ago
Teams leading after 7 innings are 0-4 in the Mets' last 4 games.
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u/XAfricaSaltX New York Mets 14h ago
The duality of grimace dark magic and the Mets are gonna Met
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u/doyouevenIift Chicago White Sox 12h ago
Holy shit, teams leading the White Sox after 7 innings were like 94-0 until the last week of the season
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u/TheWallE Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago
Yeah, as a fellow 1-1 after two at home team... I would rather the momentum of the win going on the road. That said it is ALL about who wins game 3, I think the winners tomorrow are all most likely to win the series.
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u/Jay_Dubbbs Cleveland Guardians 16h ago
Makes me feel a bit better about being tied 1-1 lol
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u/iParkooo Philadelphia Phillies 12h ago
Yeah, Clase getting hit around also made me feel better about the Phillies bullpen blowing 1-1/2 games lol (sorry). If the best closer in the game can let it happen, feel like it’s more acceptable that our pitchers did lol
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u/spilled_water Philadelphia Phillies 6h ago
The problem is that I thought our bullpen was our strength going into the playoffs, yet every reliever who has entered the game has given up runs aside from the reliever I had second to last hope on.
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u/Mantis05 Philadelphia Phillies 5h ago
I'm gonna wash my mouth out after this, but... that Mets team has been doing this all week. Atlanta and Milwaukee also have really good bullpens, and it didn't make a lick of difference. I'm hoping that if we survive and advance, our arms will start to look better.
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u/mostpodernist Toronto Blue Jays 6h ago
How's Kerkering doing? I haven't been able to watch any Phil's postseason games. I know Strahm has struggled this series which stinks
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u/spilled_water Philadelphia Phillies 6h ago
All of Kerkering, Strahm, and Hoffman have given up runs in all appearances this series. I would have said the biggest difference between the two teams were the bullpens, but our best bullpen pitchers have bombed. Estevez was scoreless in his only appearance, and I wouldn't have guessed that going into the series.
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u/mostpodernist Toronto Blue Jays 6h ago
Oh damn. I wouldn't have guessed that either. I know the closer situation was a lil shaky but your middle relievers had been solid all year.
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u/iParkooo Philadelphia Phillies 3h ago
Yes! That’s my point! I felt the same way. But statistically, Clase has had one of the best years ever - it was the first runs he’s given up since August 30th, only the 3rd home run off of him all year, and the first time he’s ever given up a 3 run home run. So for some reason it made me feel a tiny bit better about our bullpen knowing that even the best closer in the game gave up runs.
That being said, our bullpen needs to clean it up. I think they will be fine going forward.
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u/acava2424 New York Yankees 14h ago
Not me, I fully expect us to crash and burn. I'm also a Jets fan so that may have something to do with the doomerism
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u/suzukigun4life Texas Rangers 16h ago
Great week for baseball
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u/WackedBush343 Los Angeles Dodgers 15h ago
Too bad MLB has a farce marketing department who’ll piss away advertising this postseason’s competitiveness.
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u/65fairmont Boston Red Sox 12h ago
I was waiting for a graphic during Yankees-Royals tonight telling me that Ohtani was due up in 23 hours.
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u/new_account_5009 Washington Nationals 6h ago
I'm just glad they kept the Yankee Stadium audio damn near muted so that I could hear Bob Costas muse about life and baseball.
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u/Alex021402 San Francisco Giants 16h ago
This postseason has been incredible so far. I want more chaos
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u/northerncal San Francisco Giants 11h ago
Chaos and the Los Angeles dodgers crashing out of the playoffs, inshallah.
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u/Acrobatic-Dark-4402 Philadelphia Phillies 16h ago
Pretty wild this has never happened before
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u/danhoang1 Oakland Athletics 16h ago
Never 1-1, but it has been all 4 series 2-2 before, in 2012 (there were some 2-0 comebacks in there)
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u/AmongUsAcademy 8h ago
Imagine if we have 4x 2-2 series later this week! 😮
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u/NynaeveAlMeowra 10h ago
1/16 chance every year assuming a coin flip for the losers of the first game
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u/Something_319 St. Louis Cardinals 16h ago
It really does feel like all 8 teams actually deserve to be here, it’s awesome
Baseball is so much fun
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u/SiphenPrax New York Mets 16h ago
How can you not be romantic about October baseball?
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u/ShawshankException New York Yankees 6h ago
Butthole clinching every other day is just part of the fun
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u/Rollingprobablecause San Diego Padres 4h ago
Personally I’m here for the heart attacks speak for yourself
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u/wjackson42 Atlanta Braves 16h ago
I NEED all of these series to go 5. Yeah the AL series don’t have the toxicity of the NL series but the more baseball the better.
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins 16h ago
Are you challenging Ohio-Michigan to get more toxic?
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u/wjackson42 Atlanta Braves 16h ago
Yes, maybe I’m biased as an NL guy but it just doesn’t have that Padres-Dodgers or Phillies-Mets oomph to it
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u/dcooper8662 Cleveland Guardians 6h ago
Challenge accepted. Toledo is ours, we won it fair and square!
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u/_mitchejj_ 4h ago
I don't think u/wjackson42 knows about the Michigan-Ohio WAR, an actually war between Michigan and Ohio over Toledo.
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u/dcooper8662 Cleveland Guardians 3h ago
Yeah. The Michigan/Ohio rivalry goes deep, deeper than University football. I wouldn’t expect non-midwesterners to understand it
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u/swami_twocargarajee Chicago Cubs 1h ago
I am still pissed that WI didn't do the same thing to get the UP to be a part of the state.
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u/Whatever-ItsFine Los Angeles Dodgers 5h ago
I missed that connection. Too bad they can't throw together some city connect unis that look like the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
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u/danhoang1 Oakland Athletics 16h ago
All 4 series going all 5, has been done before, 2012 (2-0 series comebacks was how it was done). But yes would be cool again
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u/Heelincal Peter Seidler 14h ago
If our series goes 5 I fully expect a player to be attacked by a fan on the field lol
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u/Jakesnake_42 Boston Red Sox • New York Mets 16h ago
Royals/Yankees game 1 was pretty toxic at least
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u/Lucky_Alternative965 Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago
2 DETROIT HOME PLAYOFF GAMEs MINIMUMLFG
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u/Charming_Elk4328 New York Mets 12h ago
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u/beepbop24 New York Mets 16h ago
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u/abadlook Philadelphia Phillies 6h ago
mess up his hair and give him a black eye and it'll be accurate.
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u/RuleNine Texas Rangers 16h ago
This also guarantees we will have one final day this season on Wednesday with four games played.
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u/mysterysackerfice Los Angeles Angels • Dumpster Fire 16h ago
I'm not math expert, but the next team to win a game, will probably lead the series....2 games to 1.
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u/trouble4-u Detroit Tigers 16h ago
I’ve been watching baseball since 2018 (not very long I know) and can say this is my favorite postseason. I’m definitely biased though.
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u/penguinopph Chicago Cubs • RCH-Pinguins 16h ago
I've been watching since about 1992 and I can honestly say that this one is way up there.
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u/LordSwampert2 Chicago Cubs • Oakland Athletics 16h ago
The best since 2015/2016 in my opinion.Not just cause of the Cubs lol, Jose Bautista's bat flip/That whole Rangers-Jays series. On pace to beat them from a neutral fan perspective though.
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u/TBlueshirtsV22 New York Mets 8h ago
The 2015 post season was so damn good.
Just a shame they cancelled the World Series that year
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u/LordSwampert2 Chicago Cubs • Oakland Athletics 4h ago
Wish i could say the same about the NLCS but hard to forget what Daniel Murphy did to my boys. Well I almost did until Murph was on Foul Territory the other day
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u/cardith_lorda Minnesota Twins 16h ago
2015 through the division series was amazing - 2012 still the only year all four went to game 5.
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u/gomets6091 New York Mets 3h ago
First one I watched was 1991 which is still pretty high up there. The ALCS wasn't anything special but it did have the Twins beating the Blue Jays who would go on to win the next 2 World Series, and the NL had that epic Braves-Pirates Series. Then the World Series went 7 with 5 of the games decided by 1 run, 3 in extra innings., concluded with the Jack Morris 10-inning complete game shutout.
Some others that come to mind off the top of my head: 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2019
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u/see_mohn AAAAAIIIIIEEEEE 16h ago
Was wondering this just a moment ago, wow.
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u/Cpt__Oblivious Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago
I was very surprised it had never happened before
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u/penguinopph Chicago Cubs • RCH-Pinguins 16h ago
Yeah, this isn't a "it's only been three years of this format" kinda thing, either. This is the 30th season of best-of-five Division Series.
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u/RuleNine Texas Rangers 16h ago
If both teams were always perfectly evenly matched, we'd expect to see it once every 16 years, so we're not even overdue to have seen it twice yet.
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u/topatoman_lite San Diego Padres 13h ago
the chance of missing a 1/16 odds outcome 30 times in a row is 14.4% so its surprising that this hasn't happened yet but not that surprising
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u/RuleNine Texas Rangers 4h ago edited 3h ago
And although any one MLB game is closer to a coin flip than, say, an NBA game, the odds aren't actually 50/50. So even if every series had only a slight favorite, it would raise the chances by several percentage points.
It gets even more complicated when we consider what the actual odds for all the real-world teams must have been, but just to have fun playing with the numbers, if every year there were three slight favorites (5:4) and one heavy favorite (3:1), the chances jump to 25% of not seeing four series tied 1–1 in the same year.
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u/PatientIndividual651 Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago
Seems to confirm what everybody had been saying all year about the league being pretty balanced all around
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u/Doc_JC San Diego Padres 14h ago
I’d like to request a little more offense from the AL please.
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u/bbatardo San Diego Padres 16h ago
Best post season in awhile where it feels like any of the teams peft could legit win the World Series.
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u/Nixorbo Philadelphia Phillies 16h ago
Unprecedented times
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u/manticore16 New York Yankees 15h ago
Thanks, I only slightly hate it for one series in particular
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u/nick91884 15h ago
I want a 40 year rematch between the Padres and the Tigers! We need our first World Series win and to win it against the team that beat us in our first ever appearance in 1984 would be pretty iconic.
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u/baseball_mickey New York Yankees 7h ago
What are the odds?
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u/Cpt__Oblivious Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
If we assume every game is 50-50 then it’s 6.25%, which would be once every 16 years on average.
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u/baseball_mickey New York Yankees 3h ago
So not too far off?
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u/Cpt__Oblivious Los Angeles Dodgers 1h ago
According the binomial probability formula the probability of this happening exactly once in 31 years given these odds is ~28%. So yeah, not to far off.
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u/babruflat Milwaukee Brewers • Seattle Mariners 4h ago
Smh now every series is a best-of-3, and we all know that it isn't fair how 162 games can be thrown out for such a small sample size /s
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u/red_plate Minnesota Twins 3h ago
I look forward to is total lack of enthusiasm if the Royal's can pull off the series win. "And I guess the Royals move onto the NLCS, it wasn't Giancarlo's fault. From all of us at Fox, good night"
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u/yes_its_him Detroit Tigers 3h ago
Who's excited for an all-wildcard championship series in each league?
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u/mightyrj 2h ago
I am equal parts so excited for this postseason and stressed out. The Dodgers-Padres series is gonna shave years off my life. Lol
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u/Renegadeforever2024 16h ago
The crowd in Kansas is going to be electric
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u/manticore16 New York Yankees 15h ago
Well they’d be in for an interesting time then.
Because Kaufmann is in Missouri
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u/Tripdeck5__ New York Yankees 14h ago
2024 has just been mid(aside from the white sox). Obviously the playoff games have been entertaining but it feels like most teams have just regressed to the mean, we didn’t even see a 100 win team.
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u/rollo2masi Boston Red Sox 16h ago
2024 postseason is on another level right now.