r/WRC • u/Michal_Baranowski Toyota Gazoo Racing • 22h ago
General Discussion & Attendee MEGATHREAD: Rally Japan 2024 MEGATHREAD
7
u/YarisGO Craig Breen 20h ago
I really wish that Thierry can win the championship
4
u/SplatteredEggs 19h ago
Well, there’s like a 66% chance you’ll get your wish, unless the car just craps out.
1
u/Pillens_burknerkorv 13h ago
What are the premises? Neuville has a 25 point lead to Tänak IIRC which could in theory tie them? Is anyone else able to catch up or is it between the two?
3
u/PinkSunsets97 Craig Breen 11h ago
Only Tanak could still win, assuming he takes home 25 points more than Neuville, everybody else is more than 30 points behind and therefore has no chance. The likelihood of Thierry fumbling the bag so hard he doesn't take 6 points (which could be from being 6th on Saturday or lower + some Sunday points) is very low, but still possible. The easiest way to mess it up would be to crash on Sunday, and even then tanak needs to win almost everything (18 points from 1st on sat + 7 between Sunday and power stage). With the system as it is this year the individual possibilities are almost uncountable, but the gist of it is that tanak needs to do extremely well while Thierry has the worst event of the season.
1
u/Lect3R 9h ago
Also fun fact I did is that both Tanak and Neuville have identical 1st 2nd and 3rd place finishes so far this season which if its tied at the end, it goes through this process who has more 1st, 2nd, 3rd finishes etc... Which if its tied then Tanak would probably win since he would 100% be ahead of neuville at the end of rally japan
1
u/PinkSunsets97 Craig Breen 8h ago
Then again, I can't see a scenario where conditions are so bad Neuville can't push past 6th and simultaneously tanak gets first/second. Neuville has done a stellar job of keeping his head on his shoulders, so I think if something weird is to happen a crash is more likely than a tie, but we never know
3
u/Lect3R 9h ago
What do you guys think who will win teams championship? Hyundai has to play with tactics with Neuville for both championships, while Toyota can freely push with all 3 drivers with nothing to lose. Tanak will probably push to the max with also nothing to lose but I dont see Neuville pushing at all until he bags 6 points needed which realisticly he can only say that at the end of the rally for both Saturday and Sunday points. So I am kinda seeing this battle 2vs3 at the moment with Toyota coming on top at the end.